MLB Betting: Manny Being Manny Back in Boston
Manny Ramirez makes his first return to Fenway Park since being dealt from Beantown to Los Angeles in 2008 when the Dodgers and Boston Red Sox begin a three-game weekend interleage series.
The Los Angeles Dodgers are exactly where they should be with the second half of the baseball season on the horizon: Contending for the National League West title.
Still, one key statistic should concern Dodgers backers heading into their three-game series at Fenway Park against the Boston Red Sox beginning on Friday night.
Los Angeles sat at 38-28 (+3.22 units) before taking on Boston, and that was good enough for a tie for first place in the NL West.
What’s to worry about? One quick look at the standings gives you the answer. Despite their reasonably strong record and modest success at the betting odds window, the Dodgers are only +12 in run differential.
That puts Los Angeles in 10th place in the NL, and fourth in its division behind San Diego (+54), San Francisco (+54), and Colorado (+44).
The Dodgers’ pythagorean record through 65 games has them at a much more pedestrian 34-32 SU. That’s .515 baseball, not the .576 Los Angeles is currently getting away with. Simply put, the Dodgers are hitting above their weight, and it’s a matter of time before they regress to the mean.
L.A. also has to be worried that the three teams battling with it for first in the NL West – the Padres, Giants, and Rockies – are all winning less games than they should be. If the current numbers hold, expect a dogfight for the division title, and for the Dodgers to be the odd team out.
It doesn’t help that leadoff man and offensive catalyst Rafael Furcal went on the bereavement list Thursday morning. Furcal has returned home to attend to an ailing family member, and will miss at least the first two games of the series against the Red Sox.
Furcal is hitting .367 in his last 11 games, with three doubles, two triples, and two homers. There’s quite a drop-off with the strong-armed shortstop out of the lineup, too.
Jamey Carroll is expected to start at short in Furcal’s absence, while Blake DeWitt should play second base and bat leadoff. Call-up Chin-Iung Hu could also see some time.
Los Angeles also faces an unknown in the series opener on Friday night (7:10 PM ET) with Boston sending left-hander Felix Doubrant to the hill for his first career start.
Doubrant was impressive in the minors this season, posting a 4-0 record and 2.51 ERA at Double-A Portland before putting up a 2-1 record with a 1.08 ERA at Triple-A Pawtucket. The 22-year old Venezuelan takes the place of Daisuke Matsuzaka, who is on the 15-day disabled list with a strained right calf.
Two keys make Doubrant and the BoSox the sharp play in the opener: The Dodgers haven’t faced him, and he’s a southpaw. L.A. is hitting only .240 against lefties this season, including .219 in its last 10 games.
The Dodgers turn to Carlos Monasterios (3-1, 2.98 ERA) on Friday night in what’s an unexpected start for the righthander. Monasterios was slated to return to the bullpen with Vicente Padilla (1-1, 6.65 ERA) coming off the 15-day disabled list to start on Saturday afternoon (4:10 p.m. ET, FOX), but Los Angeles put Chad Billingsley (strained right groin) on the DL earlier this week.
Oddsmakers opened the Red Sox as -145 favorites for Friday’s game, with the total set at 10. The Dodgers were priced as +125 underdogs.
Padilla hasn’t pitched since April 22 because of an irritated nerve in his forearm, and the hope is that the time off can get him on track. On top of his bloated ERA in four starts this season, Padilla has a 7.98 ERA on the road.
Boston counters with Tim Wakefield (2-5, 5.42 ERA) on Saturday afternoon. The Red Sox are only 3-7 against the money line in Wakefield’s 10 starts this season, as the knuckleballer’s gone winless at Fenway with a 6.86 ERA.
Wakefield has allowed only five runs in his last two outings – a span of 14 2-3 innings, but his recent success pales in comparison to that of Clay Buchholz (9-4, 2.67 ERA).
Buchholz has been Boston’s best starter this season, and he looks to keep rolling on Sunday Night Baseball (8:10 p.m. ET, ESPN). The Red Sox are 8-2 against the moneyline in Buchholz’ last 10 starts, while the right-hander has put up a 1.84 ERA in his last seven trips to the bump.
The Dodgers had yet to announce their starter for Sunday’s game as of press, but expect Hiroki Kuroda (6-4, 3.10 ERA) to take the ball.
Manny Ramirez makes his first return to Fenway Park since being dealt from Beantown to Los Angeles in 2008 when the Dodgers and Boston Red Sox begin a three-game weekend interleage series.
The Los Angeles Dodgers are exactly where they should be with the second half of the baseball season on the horizon: Contending for the National League West title.
Still, one key statistic should concern Dodgers backers heading into their three-game series at Fenway Park against the Boston Red Sox beginning on Friday night.
Los Angeles sat at 38-28 (+3.22 units) before taking on Boston, and that was good enough for a tie for first place in the NL West.
What’s to worry about? One quick look at the standings gives you the answer. Despite their reasonably strong record and modest success at the betting odds window, the Dodgers are only +12 in run differential.
That puts Los Angeles in 10th place in the NL, and fourth in its division behind San Diego (+54), San Francisco (+54), and Colorado (+44).
The Dodgers’ pythagorean record through 65 games has them at a much more pedestrian 34-32 SU. That’s .515 baseball, not the .576 Los Angeles is currently getting away with. Simply put, the Dodgers are hitting above their weight, and it’s a matter of time before they regress to the mean.
L.A. also has to be worried that the three teams battling with it for first in the NL West – the Padres, Giants, and Rockies – are all winning less games than they should be. If the current numbers hold, expect a dogfight for the division title, and for the Dodgers to be the odd team out.
It doesn’t help that leadoff man and offensive catalyst Rafael Furcal went on the bereavement list Thursday morning. Furcal has returned home to attend to an ailing family member, and will miss at least the first two games of the series against the Red Sox.
Furcal is hitting .367 in his last 11 games, with three doubles, two triples, and two homers. There’s quite a drop-off with the strong-armed shortstop out of the lineup, too.
Jamey Carroll is expected to start at short in Furcal’s absence, while Blake DeWitt should play second base and bat leadoff. Call-up Chin-Iung Hu could also see some time.
Los Angeles also faces an unknown in the series opener on Friday night (7:10 PM ET) with Boston sending left-hander Felix Doubrant to the hill for his first career start.
Doubrant was impressive in the minors this season, posting a 4-0 record and 2.51 ERA at Double-A Portland before putting up a 2-1 record with a 1.08 ERA at Triple-A Pawtucket. The 22-year old Venezuelan takes the place of Daisuke Matsuzaka, who is on the 15-day disabled list with a strained right calf.
Two keys make Doubrant and the BoSox the sharp play in the opener: The Dodgers haven’t faced him, and he’s a southpaw. L.A. is hitting only .240 against lefties this season, including .219 in its last 10 games.
The Dodgers turn to Carlos Monasterios (3-1, 2.98 ERA) on Friday night in what’s an unexpected start for the righthander. Monasterios was slated to return to the bullpen with Vicente Padilla (1-1, 6.65 ERA) coming off the 15-day disabled list to start on Saturday afternoon (4:10 p.m. ET, FOX), but Los Angeles put Chad Billingsley (strained right groin) on the DL earlier this week.
Oddsmakers opened the Red Sox as -145 favorites for Friday’s game, with the total set at 10. The Dodgers were priced as +125 underdogs.
Padilla hasn’t pitched since April 22 because of an irritated nerve in his forearm, and the hope is that the time off can get him on track. On top of his bloated ERA in four starts this season, Padilla has a 7.98 ERA on the road.
Boston counters with Tim Wakefield (2-5, 5.42 ERA) on Saturday afternoon. The Red Sox are only 3-7 against the money line in Wakefield’s 10 starts this season, as the knuckleballer’s gone winless at Fenway with a 6.86 ERA.
Wakefield has allowed only five runs in his last two outings – a span of 14 2-3 innings, but his recent success pales in comparison to that of Clay Buchholz (9-4, 2.67 ERA).
Buchholz has been Boston’s best starter this season, and he looks to keep rolling on Sunday Night Baseball (8:10 p.m. ET, ESPN). The Red Sox are 8-2 against the moneyline in Buchholz’ last 10 starts, while the right-hander has put up a 1.84 ERA in his last seven trips to the bump.
The Dodgers had yet to announce their starter for Sunday’s game as of press, but expect Hiroki Kuroda (6-4, 3.10 ERA) to take the ball.
