2019 MLB +1.5 Strategy

[KingofKOP]

Spank - my book won’t let me buy runs in a favorite. Would you happen to know the prior win/loss records if we just took the ML on favorites? Thanks!

[spankmythighs]

Spank - my book won’t let me buy runs in a favorite. Would you happen to know the prior win/loss records if we just took the ML on favorites? Thanks!

If you did that you would have Looking4Winners record

[spankmythighs]

Spank, You sure about that Astros -455 number? My site is currently showing -315

You sure that isn't +1? On Bet365 it is -455

[spankmythighs]

@Looking4Winners what site are you using? Thanks

[Looking4Winners]

@Looking4Winners what site are you using? Thanks

I have a local website I use but I found this on another site - https://xbet.ag/sportsbook/mlb/alternate-runlines/

[grecycle99]

If you're going to tout a flashy record, at least let everyone know its a chase system.

When you see G1, G2 and G3, it's clear that it's a chase. Do a little research before blasting and annoying anyone

[dumazz]

You sure that isn't +1? On Bet365 it is -455

I have -300 on the Astros +1.5 William Hill (in Nevada)

[ih8books]

Anything over -350 I take the otherside (I do not care who the team is) Every time.... I easily go 60% on those games and at +280 odds you stay in the black, no need to chase. It seems like teams get complacent when they are such a heavy favorite.

[dumazz]

Anything over -350 I take the otherside (I do not care who the team is) Every time.... I easily go 60% on those games and at +280 odds you stay in the black, no need to chase. It seems like teams get complacent when they are such a heavy favorite.

Astros are -170 on the moneyline. We were talking about taking them on the reverse (alternate) run line +1.5

[spankmythighs]

Looking4Winners I will look for the best lines.

@Ih8books we have a proven model. Feel free to do whatever u like

[positivebankroll]

Anything over -350 I take the otherside (I do not care who the team is) Every time.... I easily go 60% on those games and at +280 odds you stay in the black, no need to chase. It seems like teams get complacent when they are such a heavy favorite.

Your a newbie, just sit back and enjoy the show, nobody asked you what you do troll!! where is your proof? these guys have proven track records!!

[spankmythighs]

SYSTEM #32019 System to Date: 2-0 (finished series)System Profit/Loss: +200.0 (finished series)Current Open Series: 0 G1 - (A) 2-0G2 - (B) 0-0G3 - (C) 0-0April 1st: Braves A Bet (+RL -175), Astros A Bet (+RL -455)Braves A Bet $175 to win $100---WINAstros A bet $455 to win $100---WIN
SYSTEM #4 - No Play

[spankmythighs]

SYSTEM #3

2019 System to Date: 2-0 (finished series)
System Profit/Loss: +200.0 (finished series)
Current Open Series: 0

G1 - (A) 2-0
G2 - (B) 0-0
G3 - (C) 0-0

April 1st: Braves A Bet (+RL -175), Astros A Bet (+RL -455)
Braves A Bet $175 to win $100---WIN
Astros A bet $455 to win $100---WIN
SYSTEM #4 - No Play

Lol nice formatting. Great first day!!

[spankmythighs]

I have Colorado as the only possible tomorrow. Have a good evening!

[daneault23]

Hey spank, playing these high favs could be pricey on a couple of C or B bets... what % of your BR do you have in play when playing 3 systems like you are doing? Assuming $100=1% of your roll, there could be times where you have a big chunk in play.

[spankmythighs]

Hey spank, playing these high favs could be pricey on a couple of C or B bets... what % of your BR do you have in play when playing 3 systems like you are doing? Assuming $100=1% of your roll, there could be times where you have a big chunk in play.

That is correct. I roll off $10,000 per system. $100 unit wins

[spankmythighs]

Hey spank, playing these high favs could be pricey on a couple of C or B bets... what % of your BR do you have in play when playing 3 systems like you are doing? Assuming $100=1% of your roll, there could be times where you have a big chunk in play.

I will gradually increase as my bankroll increases but only if there are no recoups in play. Regards.

[Looking4Winners]

SYSTEM #1

Look for teams that lost 3 games in a row SU and RL (lose by 2 or more runs).
Start a 3 game chase. If the dog, bet on the +RL, if favorite take the ML.

2019 System to Date: 2-0 (finished series)
System Profit/Loss: 2.0 (finished series)
Current Open Series: 0

G1 - (A) 2-0
G2 - (B) 0-0
G3 - (C) 0-0

April 1st: Braves A Bet , Astros A Bet

April 2nd: Rockies A Bet (+RL -150)

[Looking4Winners]

SYSTEM #2

Look for teams that have lost 4 games SU and against the RL (lose by 2 or more runs). We will than start a 3-game chase. Whether a dog or favorite we will play the +RL.

2019 System to Date: 0-0 (finished series)
System Profit/Loss: 0.0 (finished series)
Current Open Series: 0

G1 - (A) 0-0
G2 - (B) 0-0
G3 - (C) 0-0

APRIL 2nd: No Play

[Edgewoodzgimp13]

Confused on yesterday's Astros bet... Why we betting the +RL when they were favored?

[spankmythighs]

Confused on yesterday's Astros bet... Why we betting the +RL when they were favored?

Different system Edgewood. Regards.

[Looking4Winners]

Confused on yesterday's Astros bet... Why we betting the +RL when they were favored?

4 different systems running in this thread.

[dumazz]

Confused on yesterday's Astros bet... Why we betting the +RL when they were favored?

There's two variations of that otherwise same system. Looking4Winners System #1 says bet the favorite on the moneyline.

spankmythighs variation says to bet the favorite on the alternate runline, or +1.5

Your choice...

[spankmythighs]

There's two variations of that otherwise same system. Looking4Winners System #1 says bet the favorite on the moneyline.

spankmythighs variation says to bet the favorite on the alternate runline, or +1.5

Your choice...

I would run them all as separate systems. Should return close to +400 units with recoup

[oilcountry99]

Wouldn't this be easier to track using a google sheet?

[spankmythighs]

4 different systems running in this thread.

Looking4Winners could you post the median win/loss ration for your system over the last say 6-8 years? Would you be able to dig that up? Regards sir

[spankmythighs]

Wouldn't this be easier to track using a google sheet?

@oilcountry99 great idea. Fire that up! I have an Excel sheet that I use with all the games for the season for each team and I highlight the games that fall into the systems. Then I just post here.

[oilcountry99]

I would run them all as separate systems. Should return close to +400 units with recoup

Using your 'recoup strategy' wouldn't it be better to just play looking for winners strategy instead of the +1.5RL on favorites. Does the +1.5 RL save you that many series to make it worthwhile?

Thanks for posting!

[dumazz]

Wouldn't this be easier to track using a google sheet?

Yeah... I just keep my own spreadsheet at home.

[oilcountry99]

@oilcountry99 great idea. Fire that up! I have an Excel sheet that I use with all the games for the season for each team and I highlight the games that fall into the systems. Then I just post here.

Not sure if I'm even going to tail this thread, so i won't be creating a google sheet.

[oilcountry99]

Yeah... I just keep my own spreadsheet at home.

Exactly the work is already being done, why not just share it publicly for all to see. just sayin....

[spankmythighs]

Using your 'recoup strategy' wouldn't it be better to just play looking for winners strategy instead of the +1.5RL on favorites. Does the +1.5 RL save you that many series to make it worthwhile?

Thanks for posting!

You could just run his and double up the unit size and then run the Sweep aswell. Lots of options

[spankmythighs]

Not sure if I'm even going to tail this thread, so i won't be creating a google sheet.

Sounds good man. See you on the other side if you decide not to. Go UCP!!

[Edgewoodzgimp13]

Okay my fault didn't see the difference in System 3. So if first bet loses you the second bet is to win 1 unit plus the cost of the lose from the previous bet?

[spankmythighs]

Okay my fault didn't see the difference in System 3. So if first bet loses you the second bet is to win 1 unit plus the cost of the lose from the previous bet?

That is correct