2019 MLB +1.5 Strategy

oilcountry99 · 04-02-19, 12:12 PM

Originally posted by spankmythighs

Sounds good man. See you on the other side if you decide not to. Go UCP!!

Sorry for my ignorance, what is UCP?

Looking4Winners · 04-02-19, 12:42 PM

Originally posted by spankmythighs

Looking4Winners could you post the median win/loss ration for your system over the last say 6-8 years? Would you be able to dig that up? Regards sir

win/loss ratio for System 2

Using this chase the results from the past few years...

2018 60-2 (Losing Teams - Royals -10.368, Orioles -5.58)
2017 54-0
2016 46-5 (Losing Teams - Royals, Phillies, Rays, Twins, Angels)
2015 52-5 (Losing Teams - Braves, Rockies, Tigers, Reds, Brewers)
2014 53-2 (Losing Teams - Cubs -12.42, Rangers -8.39)
2013 43-0
2012 51-4 (Losing Teams -Astros (2), Indians, Rockies)
2011 53-4 (Losing Teams - Twins, Mariners, O's, Padres)

spankmythighs · 04-02-19, 01:14 PM

Originally posted by oilcountry99

Sorry for my ignorance, what is UCP?

Oh come on! Are you not from Alberta? I was guessing. Sorry

spankmythighs · 04-02-19, 01:20 PM

Originally posted by Looking4Winners

win/loss ratio for System 2

Using this chase the results from the past few years...

2018 60-2 (Losing Teams - Royals -10.368, Orioles -5.58)
2017 54-0
2016 46-5 (Losing Teams - Royals, Phillies, Rays, Twins, Angels)
2015 52-5 (Losing Teams - Braves, Rockies, Tigers, Reds, Brewers)
2014 53-2 (Losing Teams - Cubs -12.42, Rangers -8.39)
2013 43-0
2012 51-4 (Losing Teams -Astros (2), Indians, Rockies)
2011 53-4 (Losing Teams - Twins, Mariners, O's, Padres)

Ok cool thanks. So I have an average of 18 to 1 and then I divide by 2 so I will go with a 9 series recoup on all losses for your System 2. What about System #1? This will wipe those losses away and we can focus on just bringing in the number on the left side of the dash

oilcountry99 · 04-02-19, 01:30 PM

Originally posted by spankmythighs

Oh come on! Are you not from Alberta? I was guessing. Sorry

lol, no I'm not. so what is UCP?

spankmythighs · 04-02-19, 01:32 PM

Originally posted by oilcountry99

lol, no I'm not. so what is UCP?

UCP = United Conservative Party

oilcountry99 · 04-02-19, 01:41 PM

Originally posted by spankmythighs

Ok cool thanks. So I have an average of 18 to 1 and then I divide by 2 so I will go with a 9 series recoup on all losses for your System 2. What about System #1? This will wipe those losses away and we can focus on just bringing in the number on the left side of the dash

What do you do if you encounter another loss or more during recovery?

spankmythighs · 04-02-19, 02:38 PM

Originally posted by oilcountry99

What do you do if you encounter another loss or more during recovery?

I will add it in and throw it on top. The odds of this happening is quite rare.

spankmythighs · 04-02-19, 02:41 PM

SYSTEM #3

2019 System to Date: 0-0 (finished series)
System Profit/Loss: +200.0 (finished series)
Current Open Series: 0

G1 - (A) 2-0
G2 - (B) 0-0
G3 - (C) 0-0

April 2nd: Rockies A Bet +RL -140

SYSTEM #4 - No Play

spankmythighs · 04-02-19, 02:45 PM

SYSTEM #3

2019 System to Date: 2-0 (finished series)
System Profit/Loss: +200.0 (finished series)
Current Open Series: 0

G1 - (A) 2-0
G2 - (B) 0-0
G3 - (C) 0-0

April 2nd: Rockies A Bet +RL -140

SYSTEM #4 - No Play

oilcountry99 · 04-02-19, 04:17 PM

I’m assuming these plays are ‘action’ not listed pitchers.

spankmythighs · 04-02-19, 10:54 PM

SYSTEM #3

2019 System to Date: 2-0 (finished series)
System Profit/Loss: +200.0 (finished series)
Current Open Series: 1

G1 - (A) 2-1
G2 - (B) 0-0
G3 - (C) 0-0

April 2nd: Rockies A Bet +RL -140 LOSS

SYSTEM #4 - No Play

spankmythighs · 04-03-19, 09:17 AM

SYSTEM #3

2019 System to Date: 2-0 (finished series)
System Profit/Loss: +200.0 (finished series)
Current Open Series: 1

G1 - (A) 2-1
G2 - (B) 0-0
G3 - (C) 0-0

April 3rd: Rockies B Bet +RL -175 --- $420 to win $660

SYSTEM #4 - No Play

msetai · 04-03-19, 09:49 AM

^ probably mean the opposite right? Risk more to win less at -175. Also at those odds it would be something like Risk $735 to win $420?

Thanks for posting spankmythighs and Looking4Winners

spankmythighs · 04-03-19, 10:07 AM

Originally posted by msetai

^ probably mean the opposite right? Risk more to win less at -175. Also at those odds it would be something like Risk $735 to win $420?

Thanks for posting spankmythighs and Looking4Winners

Im not sure I follow. I am wagering $420 to win a total of $660 because I lost $140 last night and I still need to win my $100 for a total of $240. Thanks

Looking4Winners · 04-03-19, 10:09 AM

SYSTEM #1

Look for teams that lost 3 games in a row SU and RL (lose by 2 or more runs).
Start a 3 game chase. If the dog, bet on the +RL, if favorite take the ML.

2019 System to Date: 2-0 (finished series)
System Profit/Loss: 2.0 (finished series)
Current Open Series: 1 (Rockies -1.5)
G1 - (A) 2-1
G2 - (B) 0-0
G3 - (C) 0-0

April 1st: Braves A Bet , Astros A Bet
April 2nd: Rockies A Bet

April 3rd: Rockies B Bet (+RL -185)

Looking4Winners · 04-03-19, 10:10 AM

SYSTEM #2

Look for teams that have lost 4 games SU and against the RL (lose by 2 or more runs). We will than start a 3-game chase. Whether a dog or favorite we will play the +RL.

2019 System to Date: 0-0 (finished series)
System Profit/Loss: 0.0 (finished series)
Current Open Series: 0

G1 - (A) 0-0
G2 - (B) 0-0
G3 - (C) 0-0

April 3rd: Rockies A Bet (+RL -185)

msetai · 04-03-19, 10:14 AM

Originally posted by spankmythighs

Im not sure I follow. I am wagering $420 to win a total of $660 because I lost $140 last night and I still need to win my $100 for a total of $240. Thanks

Yes this makes sense, your payout is $660, 420 + 240. Was initially thinking you were trying to win 420 not 240. Thanks!

Looking4Winners · 04-03-19, 10:24 AM

Originally posted by spankmythighs

Im not sure I follow. I am wagering $420 to win a total of $660 because I lost $140 last night and I still need to win my $100 for a total of $240. Thanks

You dropped 140 last night. So to recover the $140 and make $100 you bet $240. Not seeing why you need to bet $420.

spankmythighs · 04-03-19, 10:45 AM

Originally posted by msetai

Yes this makes sense, your payout is $660, 420 + 240. Was initially thinking you were trying to win 420 not 240. Thanks!

spankmythighs · 04-03-19, 10:47 AM

Originally posted by Looking4Winners

You dropped 140 last night. So to recover the $140 and make $100 you bet $240. Not seeing why you need to bet $420.

Lost $140 + basically Lost out on $100 = $240, Odds are -175 on Bet365 so in order to get my $240 I need to wager $420

oilcountry99 · 04-03-19, 12:58 PM

google sheet would have cleared this betting amount mess up real easy...just sayin [had to bust spanky's balls]

spankmythighs · 04-03-19, 01:21 PM

Originally posted by oilcountry99

google sheet would have cleared this betting amount mess up real easy...just sayin [had to bust spanky's balls]

I actually just do it all in my head. My excel sheet merely highlights games that would be part of the plays. Just sayin

betwithdaniel · 04-03-19, 01:30 PM

BetOnline has a publicly viewable ALT line if you want to use that Spank.

spankmythighs · 04-03-19, 01:33 PM

Originally posted by betwithdaniel

BetOnline has a publicly viewable ALT line if you want to use that Spank.

Sounds good sir. Me thinks I need to shop around based on what Bet365 supplied me the other day. I think someone said that WilliamHill has that line too. I will have to dig up my account for them.

oilcountry99 · 04-03-19, 02:53 PM

Originally posted by spankmythighs

I actually just do it all in my head. My excel sheet merely highlights games that would be part of the plays. Just sayin

it seems as though other's are not as mathematically inclined as you

spankmythighs · 04-03-19, 06:35 PM

Originally posted by oilcountry99

it seems as though other's are not as mathematically inclined as you

spankmythighs · 04-03-19, 06:36 PM

SYSTEM #3

2019 System to Date: 3-0 (finished series)
System Profit/Loss: +300.0 (finished series)
Current Open Series: 0

G1 - (A) 2-1
G2 - (B) 0-0
G3 - (C) 0-0

April 3rd: Rockies B Bet +RL -175 --- $420 to win $660 - WIN

SYSTEM #4 - No Play

spankmythighs · 04-03-19, 06:37 PM

Originally posted by spankmythighs

SYSTEM #3
2019 System to Date: 3-0 (finished series)
System Profit/Loss: +300.0 (finished series)
Current Open Series: 0

G1 - (A) 2-1
G2 - (B) 1-0
G3 - (C) 0-0
April 3rd: Rockies B Bet +RL -175 --- $420 to win $660 - WIN
SYSTEM #4 - No Play

Missed the G2

spankmythighs · 04-03-19, 06:43 PM

I don't mind +$700 for the week between them all

KingofKOP · 04-04-19, 07:35 AM

Hi. Aren’t System 1 and 3 basically the same thing except playing the RL on favs in one of them? Or am I missing something. Thank you for all the hard work here.

dumazz · 04-04-19, 08:08 AM

Originally posted by KingofKOP

Hi. Aren’t System 1 and 3 basically the same thing except playing the RL on favs in one of them? Or am I missing something. Thank you for all the hard work here.

You are absolutely right. Looking4Winners - System #1 plays the favorite on the moneyline whereas spankmythighs - System #3 plays the favorite on the +1.5 runline

Looking4Winners · 04-04-19, 10:40 AM

SYSTEM #1

Look for teams that lost 3 games in a row SU and RL (lose by 2 or more runs).
Start a 3 game chase. If the dog, bet on the +RL, if favorite take the ML.

2019 System to Date: 3-0 (finished series)
System Profit/Loss: 3.0 (finished series)
Current Open Series: 0

G1 - (A) 2-1
G2 - (B) 1-0
G3 - (C) 0-0

April 1st: Braves A Bet , Astros A Bet
April 2nd: Rockies A Bet
April 3rd: Rockies B Bet

April 4th: No Play

Looking4Winners · 04-04-19, 10:41 AM

SYSTEM #2

Look for teams that have lost 4 games SU and against the RL (lose by 2 or more runs). We will than start a 3-game chase. Whether a dog or favorite we will play the +RL.

2019 System to Date: 1-0 (finished series)
System Profit/Loss: 1.0 (finished series)
Current Open Series: 0

G1 - (A) 1-0
G2 - (B) 0-0
G3 - (C) 0-0

April 3rd: Rockies A Bet

April 4th: No Play

spankmythighs · 04-04-19, 01:13 PM

SYSTEM #3

2019 System to Date: 3-0 (finished series)
System Profit/Loss: +300.0 (finished series)
Current Open Series: 0

G1 - (A) 2-1
G2 - (B) 1-0
G3 - (C) 0-0

April 4th: No Play

SYSTEM #4 - No Play