Giants atop NL West with key series at Dodgers
Tim Lincecum and the Giants are off to a solid start to 2010, on the diamond and at the window. San Francisco looks to maintain its momentum this weekend in Los Angeles against the Dodgers.
The National League West could be just about anyone’s this year – well, maybe not the San Diego Padres, who have the lowest total in the majors for regular season wins at 66.
But the other four teams in the division are all expected to have winning records, led by the defending NL West champion Los Angeles Dodgers at 87 victories. The Colorado Rockies are right there at 86.5, followed closely by the San Francisco Giants at 84.5 and the Arizona Diamondbacks at 83.
San Francisco had a lot of support from the sharp community going into the new season, and it’s full steam ahead so far at 7-2 (4.27 units). The Dodgers have fallen behind a bit at 4-5 (-2.66 units), but they can leap right back to the top of the division by sweeping the Giants this weekend at Chavez Ravine. The probable pitching matchups are in L.A.’s favor – in two out of three cases, at least.
Todd Wellemeyer (+135) vs. Vicente Padilla (-145, 9)
Friday - 10:10 p.m. (ET)
Wellemeyer was able to find himself continued MLB employment at the back end of San Francisco’s rotation after posting a -0.3 WAR (Wins Above Replacement) last year with the St. Louis Cardinals. As fate would have it, this is the second time he’s been matched up against the other team’s No. 1 starter; in his first appearance this season, Wellemeyer gave up four runs in a 7-2 loss to Derek Lowe and the Atlanta Braves (-116).
The disparity between the two pitchers isn’t as bad this time. Padilla has been a serviceable innings-eater (when healthy) with a lifetime 12.6 WAR since joining the majors in 1999. But he somehow earned the No. 1 starter job in Los Angeles after posting a 3.20 ERA in just seven starts with the Dodgers, who picked him up off the scrap heap in August after the Texas Rangers released him.
Here’s how manager Joe Torre explained it to reporters: “(We) don’t have a No. 1, we have four guys who have pitched important games for us.”
Padilla honked his first two starts this year, allowing a combined 11 runs in 8.2 innings of work. Nonetheless, the early betting odds for this matchup had the Dodgers as -145 favorites with a total of nine runs.
Tim Lincecum vs. Charlie Haeger
Saturday - 4:10 p.m. (ET)
The Giants definitely have a No. 1 starter. Lincecum (8.2 WAR last year) is the reigning and two-time NL Cy Young winner, and he’s off to another brilliant campaign, going seven innings in each of his first two starts and allowing a combined two runs. The Giants backed him up with 11 runs; they need to keep that level of support going, otherwise Lincecum is a chalk magnet. He had a deficit of 0.59 units last year despite posting a team record of 19-13.
Haeger (-0.2 WAR in 60.0 career innings) was not one of the four “important” pitchers Torre mentioned, but L.A.’s No. 5 starter has a leg up on most of his teammates after striking out 12 Florida Marlins (-113) in last Sunday’s 6-5 victory.
Haeger is a knuckleballer who appears to have found an extra bit of crazy to his pitches this year; he also walked four Marlins on Sunday and threw three wild pitches.
Barry Zito vs. Clayton Kershaw
Sunday - 4:10 p.m. (ET)
It’s been a while since Zito (2.2 WAR last year) was handed that 2002 Cy Young Award for a season when he posted a good, but not great 4.29 xFIP alongside his gaudy 23-5 record and 2.75 ERA. He gets a bit of a bum rap for never pitching to that standard again, but that standard was just statistical smoke and mirrors anyway.
Zito is still a good pitcher; he earned a profit in each of the past two seasons and is off to a nice start in 2010 with three runs allowed in 12 innings of work – granted, in victories over the struggling Houston Astros (-126) and Pittsburgh Pirates (+172).
Kershaw (4.2 WAR last year) is the true ace of the Dodgers, but his 2009 won-loss record of 8-8 in 30 starts kept him from earning the kind of accolades he merits. L.A. went just 14-16 with Kershaw on the hill and dropped 6.78 betting units despite having arguably the best bullpen in the majors. He should have better luck this year, but not if he keeps walking people. Kershaw issued 11 free passes in his two starts and failed to reach the sixth inning in either game.
Tim Lincecum and the Giants are off to a solid start to 2010, on the diamond and at the window. San Francisco looks to maintain its momentum this weekend in Los Angeles against the Dodgers.
The National League West could be just about anyone’s this year – well, maybe not the San Diego Padres, who have the lowest total in the majors for regular season wins at 66.
But the other four teams in the division are all expected to have winning records, led by the defending NL West champion Los Angeles Dodgers at 87 victories. The Colorado Rockies are right there at 86.5, followed closely by the San Francisco Giants at 84.5 and the Arizona Diamondbacks at 83.
San Francisco had a lot of support from the sharp community going into the new season, and it’s full steam ahead so far at 7-2 (4.27 units). The Dodgers have fallen behind a bit at 4-5 (-2.66 units), but they can leap right back to the top of the division by sweeping the Giants this weekend at Chavez Ravine. The probable pitching matchups are in L.A.’s favor – in two out of three cases, at least.
Todd Wellemeyer (+135) vs. Vicente Padilla (-145, 9)
Friday - 10:10 p.m. (ET)
Wellemeyer was able to find himself continued MLB employment at the back end of San Francisco’s rotation after posting a -0.3 WAR (Wins Above Replacement) last year with the St. Louis Cardinals. As fate would have it, this is the second time he’s been matched up against the other team’s No. 1 starter; in his first appearance this season, Wellemeyer gave up four runs in a 7-2 loss to Derek Lowe and the Atlanta Braves (-116).
The disparity between the two pitchers isn’t as bad this time. Padilla has been a serviceable innings-eater (when healthy) with a lifetime 12.6 WAR since joining the majors in 1999. But he somehow earned the No. 1 starter job in Los Angeles after posting a 3.20 ERA in just seven starts with the Dodgers, who picked him up off the scrap heap in August after the Texas Rangers released him.
Here’s how manager Joe Torre explained it to reporters: “(We) don’t have a No. 1, we have four guys who have pitched important games for us.”
Padilla honked his first two starts this year, allowing a combined 11 runs in 8.2 innings of work. Nonetheless, the early betting odds for this matchup had the Dodgers as -145 favorites with a total of nine runs.
Tim Lincecum vs. Charlie Haeger
Saturday - 4:10 p.m. (ET)
The Giants definitely have a No. 1 starter. Lincecum (8.2 WAR last year) is the reigning and two-time NL Cy Young winner, and he’s off to another brilliant campaign, going seven innings in each of his first two starts and allowing a combined two runs. The Giants backed him up with 11 runs; they need to keep that level of support going, otherwise Lincecum is a chalk magnet. He had a deficit of 0.59 units last year despite posting a team record of 19-13.
Haeger (-0.2 WAR in 60.0 career innings) was not one of the four “important” pitchers Torre mentioned, but L.A.’s No. 5 starter has a leg up on most of his teammates after striking out 12 Florida Marlins (-113) in last Sunday’s 6-5 victory.
Haeger is a knuckleballer who appears to have found an extra bit of crazy to his pitches this year; he also walked four Marlins on Sunday and threw three wild pitches.
Barry Zito vs. Clayton Kershaw
Sunday - 4:10 p.m. (ET)
It’s been a while since Zito (2.2 WAR last year) was handed that 2002 Cy Young Award for a season when he posted a good, but not great 4.29 xFIP alongside his gaudy 23-5 record and 2.75 ERA. He gets a bit of a bum rap for never pitching to that standard again, but that standard was just statistical smoke and mirrors anyway.
Zito is still a good pitcher; he earned a profit in each of the past two seasons and is off to a nice start in 2010 with three runs allowed in 12 innings of work – granted, in victories over the struggling Houston Astros (-126) and Pittsburgh Pirates (+172).
Kershaw (4.2 WAR last year) is the true ace of the Dodgers, but his 2009 won-loss record of 8-8 in 30 starts kept him from earning the kind of accolades he merits. L.A. went just 14-16 with Kershaw on the hill and dropped 6.78 betting units despite having arguably the best bullpen in the majors. He should have better luck this year, but not if he keeps walking people. Kershaw issued 11 free passes in his two starts and failed to reach the sixth inning in either game.