LB thread for MLB plays 2010

**JR007** · 08-16-10, 09:29 AM

what i have seen on totals though.....is 10 cent moves occasionally...from -120 to -130 right before game time....my guess on that is that it is sharp money ??????????? tough to tell the difference between sharp and public money...coming in right before game time...maybe when the line waffles back and forth.....no play...... help on this ??????

**Tommy_de1st** · 08-16-10, 11:26 AM

I just wanna echo what Jr says. When is it the right time to play?When do we know that is sharp money on the table?

and those columns? which one is Over and Under? JR... you know?

**WIZARDOFBEANTOWN** · 08-16-10, 12:19 PM

left is over tommy right is under is my guess

**JR007** · 08-16-10, 01:02 PM

(Left is over right is under)...........I would guess that a line move of 10 cents or more..would indicate sharp play' From what I saw in the NCAA finals Butler....went from plus7 -107 to plus 7...-119 in a matter of a few minutes, from what I see the pattern of the move.............consistantly moves up and down with no interuption..would indicate sharp action....just my observations......I do not have the experience with this...i remember the chargers playing the colts last year ???line went from +3 chargers to plus 1 before game time
a astute capper pointed out in another forum that the moneyline was dropping all week on the chargers.30 cent drop..which indeed it was. the line move+3 to+ 1 point was due to "teaser ramifications". he advised to look at that at least in football as a clue and the pattern of the move as well the people who bet before game day on that game "beat the closing line" in his words

**JR007** · 08-16-10, 01:17 PM

Jets opened -120 now -150( pinny)
49's opened -175 closed -201 (winner)
Bengels opened -180 closed -191 (winner)

I haven't looked back any further than this...and it is (preseason)...........tread lightly !!!!

**tombrady** · 08-16-10, 06:10 PM

Hello LB , thanks for the pick last night on rays and phili under , keep it up . any pick tonight LB?

**JR007** · 08-16-10, 06:37 PM

Bounced out of TA's thread....Lb......water lillys from now on

**lakerboy** · 08-16-10, 10:48 PM

Originally posted by Tommy_de1st

I just wanna echo what Jr says. When is it the right time to play?When do we know that is sharp money on the table?

and those columns? which one is Over and Under? JR... you know?

alot of it is instinct. you gotta look at early betting thats where the math guys and insiders play.

Originally posted by tombrady

Hello LB , thanks for the pick last night on rays and phili under , keep it up . any pick tonight LB?

yeah just rays ml.

Originally posted by JR007

Bounced out of TA's thread....Lb......water lillys from now on

what happened there JR?

**broadway6** · 08-16-10, 10:50 PM

i hate to say this, but i like the Cubs tomorrow

**lakerboy** · 08-16-10, 10:51 PM

Originally posted by lakerboy

Rays ML -101 (1.5x)

12-6 last 18 plays. Finally a little luck.

**paco** · 08-16-10, 10:53 PM

Very nice

**lakerboy** · 08-16-10, 10:55 PM

Originally posted by paco

Very nice

**$Burm$** · 08-16-10, 11:13 PM

Originally posted by lakerboy

12-6 last 18 plays. Finally a little luck.

tailed u on the rays play tonight LB.. thanks

**MidgetTossers** · 08-16-10, 11:33 PM

nice work lb...

**lakerboy** · 08-17-10, 12:21 AM

Tuesday

Angels ML +122 (1.5x)

Dbacks +103 (1x)

**lakerboy** · 08-17-10, 12:22 AM

Originally posted by $Burm$

tailed u on the rays play tonight LB.. thanks

Originally posted by MidgetTossers

nice work lb...

- will get back to you tomorrow.

**No coincidences** · 08-17-10, 12:23 AM

Originally posted by lakerboy

Tuesday

Angels ML +122 (1.5x)

Dbacks +103 (1x)

Really like this one.

**paco** · 08-17-10, 12:23 AM

Lb, I'm assuming u like Dbacks TT over also if u like em on the mL?

**lakerboy** · 08-17-10, 12:25 AM

Originally posted by paco

Lb, I'm assuming u like Dbacks TT over also if u like em on the mL?

Yes as you know bro those fukks score runs at home.

**paco** · 08-17-10, 12:28 AM

Originally posted by lakerboy

Yes as you know bro those fukks score runs at home.

Yes. I will be on the TT. Goodluck on the mL

**lakerboy** · 08-17-10, 12:31 AM

Originally posted by paco

Yes. I will be on the TT. Goodluck on the mL

Thanks same to you. I might jump in on the TT too.

**No coincidences** · 08-17-10, 12:32 AM

Originally posted by paco

Lb, I'm assuming u like Dbacks TT over also if u like em on the mL?

I'd be careful there.

Just by quickly adding it up in my head, I have Arizona for only 43 runs in its last 13 home games.

**lakerboy** · 08-17-10, 12:36 AM

Cards RL +115 (1x)

Phils RL +154 (1x)

**lakerboy** · 08-17-10, 12:38 AM

Also like tigers +1.5 but will wait until all the squares give me a better #.

**lakerboy** · 08-17-10, 12:41 AM

Phillies ML -145 (2x)

**Tommy_de1st** · 08-17-10, 03:28 AM

LB, you gave your picks very early. You r not gonna wait for late moves?

**JR007** · 08-17-10, 06:16 AM

LB sent you a pm..read TA thread!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!1

**lakerboy** · 08-17-10, 09:56 AM

Originally posted by Tommy_de1st

LB, you gave your picks very early. You r not gonna wait for late moves?

No. I made my moves and all the lines have moved in my direction except the angels game( which i thought i wouldnt anyways)

**JR007** · 08-17-10, 10:00 AM

Thanks

**TodaysAction** · 08-17-10, 10:10 AM

lakerboy,

Congrats on your run (12-6 last 18) and hope it continues.

**lakerboy** · 08-17-10, 10:30 AM

Originally posted by TodaysAction

lakerboy,

Congrats on your run (12-6 last 18) and hope it continues.

Thanks TA. Great job by you as usual all year long.

**JR007** · 08-17-10, 01:36 PM

LB...when you talk about "beating the closing line"....does it mean getting the 'best value" for your play win or lose ?????...that is the way I understand it...Thanks

**JR007** · 08-17-10, 01:47 PM

Coming off a nice win with the Tampa Bay Rays right here Monday night, we return on Tuesday night with another American League gem in the White Sox – Twins matchup. The Sox are 1-4 on the road versus teams with a winning record, 1-4 when facing right-handed starters, 7-19 their last twenty-six games versus the Twins, 1-6 when Dank’s takes the bump in the Twin Cities and 6-20 overall in Minnesota. The Twins enter this contest with solid technical support including 4-0 their last four at home versus teams with a winning record, 4-0 the last four times Baker has taken the mound, 14-5 when he starts at home and 5-1 when Baker faces teams at home with a winning record. Minnesota is 46-22 overall at home and 44-17 at home facing left-handed starters. Short favorite with solid technical support points to an all systems go on the Minnesota Twins tonight.

**Goat Milk** · 08-17-10, 01:57 PM

JR didn't you say you've been gambling for years? You don't know what beating the closing line means? Righhht.

**tanner40** · 08-17-10, 02:02 PM

JR for every 2 cents you beat the no vig line you have an expected 1% ROI on that bet. To put it simply anytime you beat the closing line you have a +EV because you paid a better price than what the closing line (the most accurate line) is.