LB thread for MLB plays 2010

**Gee** · 08-17-10, 06:19 PM

Originally posted by lakerboy

It means one of two things. THe books are trying to get you to take the M's or there is serious coin on the M's.

couldn't that mean there has been serious late sharp money on the O's too?

**JR007** · 08-17-10, 06:23 PM

Originally posted by tanner40

JR for every 2 cents you beat the no vig line you have an expected 1% ROI on that bet. To put it simply anytime you beat the closing line you have a +EV because you paid a better price than what the closing line (the most accurate line) is.

Thanks Tanner..I know the (no Vig calculations) and what ( plus expected value is...but...but I did not know the correlation between this and moneyline plays....I understand it on pointpreads Thanks

**SRBI** · 08-17-10, 06:24 PM

Fukk here comes Verlander to give it right back what a bum

**SRBI** · 08-17-10, 06:39 PM

Tampa Bay doin work!

**JR007** · 08-17-10, 06:39 PM

Originally posted by Goat Milk

JR didn't you say you've been gambling for years? You don't know what beating the closing line means? Righhht.

Goatie: Glad to see you made Bail....right before the Football season...Been betting since 1969 ( football) cards......there was no computers back then...you took the line out of the paper and called your local..knew about pointspread movement...through those pagers that came out in the 90's ( before your time) and then evolved into the computer age .....the idea of moneyline movement..is relatively knew to me.....(outside of baseball ) that is why I joined here , covers, rxforum , scores and odds etc....saw the numbers...but did not see the connection....Thanks to LB Paco ..gentlemen named gamehunter and buffetgambler in other forums....even you haved (helped) believe it or not...it has become much more technology driven now....hope this helps

**broadway6** · 08-17-10, 07:03 PM

Originally posted by lakerboy

my only opinion on that game is that the white sox win .

twins line has been steamed back up to -123 the max it's been. Let's see if it keeps going up or back down...i'm thinking the twins win now...

**broadway6** · 08-17-10, 07:15 PM

twins line ended up -122. hope nobody put any cash on this game....

**Pauulzcappin** · 08-17-10, 07:19 PM

Originally posted by broadway6

twins line ended up -122. hope nobody put any cash on this game....

I passed, got too much money riding today as it is.

**broadway6** · 08-17-10, 07:22 PM

Originally posted by Pauulzcappin

I passed, got too much money riding today as it is.

BOL Paul

**obamaismyuncle** · 08-17-10, 07:28 PM

Originally posted by broadway6

twins line ended up -122. hope nobody put any cash on this game....

I did alot on ml and some more on the rl..twins will sweep.

**broadway6** · 08-17-10, 07:30 PM

Originally posted by obamaismyuncle

I did alot on ml and some more on the rl..twins will sweep.

nice avatar

**lakerboy** · 08-17-10, 07:34 PM

glad i stayed away from the white sox. need phillies to win and rays rl to cash and im happy. noticed the dbags are now favored.

**Pavv4** · 08-17-10, 07:44 PM

What about Angels Ml

**MidgetTossers** · 08-17-10, 07:45 PM

that total in minny has my head all fukked up...why the 1 point drop?..they are gonna cover that total by the 3rd or 4th inning

**lakerboy** · 08-17-10, 07:46 PM

Originally posted by Pavv4

What about Angels Ml

That was a bad call by me. Looking for profit now from my night.

**lakerboy** · 08-17-10, 07:47 PM

Originally posted by MidgetTossers

that total in minny has my head all fukked up...why the 1 point drop?..they are gonna cover that total by the 3rd or 4th inning

maybe they were trying to get people to ebt the under. one thing i noticed in bases is that they try and make you play something if you look at the lines too much. for example Mariners TT of 4 went to -130 at pinny before game time within 15 minutes from -107.

**ayuntalo** · 08-17-10, 07:48 PM

Originally posted by lakerboy

That was a bad call by me. Looking for profit now from my night.

on the angels lb?

**Pavv4** · 08-17-10, 07:50 PM

I got stock with that one today!

**lakerboy** · 08-17-10, 07:53 PM

Originally posted by lakerboy

Tuesday

Angels ML +122 (1.5x)

Dbacks +103 (1x)

Originally posted by lakerboy

Cards RL +115 (1x)

Phils RL +154 (1x)

Originally posted by lakerboy

Phillies ML -145 (2x)

These are all my plays tonight so far plus RAYS RL +130 (1x).

Angels lost as it closed at +130 or so.

Phils ml closed around -160 so i beat the closer and the RL was as low as +135 so beat it there as well. Rays RL closed at +129 at pinny so i beat it by 1 cent.

Cards RL closed at +118 so i think i am in trouble there.

I have already beaten the closer with ARizona as well. Lets see how the night finishes.

**broadway6** · 08-17-10, 07:57 PM

**ayuntalo** · 08-17-10, 08:02 PM

Originally posted by lakerboy

These are all my plays tonight so far plus RAYS RL +130 (1x).

Angels lost as it closed at +130 or so.

Phils ml closed around -160 so i beat the closer and the RL was as low as +135 so beat it there as well. Rays RL closed at +129 at pinny so i beat it by 1 cent.

Cards RL closed at +118 so i think i am in trouble there.

I have already beaten the closer with ARizona as well. Lets see how the night finishes.

LB i am a bit new to sportsbetting..so i do not have a right to question your thing..
i just want to know and maybe learn from seasoned cappers, i've noticed that you are always so concerned of the line movements.. when the line movements favor you do you win most of the time? like how many percentage does it happen (estimate).. sorry if its too much to ask..
but thanks in advance!
LETS GET THEM!

**lakerboy** · 08-17-10, 08:09 PM

Originally posted by ayuntalo

LB i am a bit new to sportsbetting..so i do not have a right to question your thing..
i just want to know and maybe learn from seasoned cappers, i've noticed that you are always so concerned of the line movements.. when the line movements favor you do you win most of the time? like how many percentage does it happen (estimate).. sorry if its too much to ask..
but thanks in advance!
LETS GET THEM!

yes when they favor me i expect my chances to be higher to win. i would hope to beat the closer 58% of the time but thats hard to do. my ONLY concern is beating the closing #. that should be every gamblers number one priority if you are serious about this. as soon as i lose on a closer i give up on that play right away.

**ayuntalo** · 08-17-10, 08:14 PM

Originally posted by lakerboy

as soon as i lose on a closer i give up on that play right away.

wow!

btw thanks for the answer!

**MidgetTossers** · 08-17-10, 08:24 PM

Originally posted by lakerboy

maybe they were trying to get people to ebt the under. one thing i noticed in bases is that they try and make you play something if you look at the lines too much. for example Mariners TT of 4 went to -130 at pinny before game time within 15 minutes from -107.

yeah i guess so

**MannyWood** · 08-17-10, 08:31 PM

Hey MT, you think Toronto will do over the A's

**lakerboy** · 08-17-10, 08:37 PM

Dbacks/Reds over 9 -104 (.5x)

No movement with public all over the under. Lets see what happens. I say at least 10 runs.

**MidgetTossers** · 08-17-10, 08:43 PM

Originally posted by MannyWood

Hey MT, you think Toronto will do over the A's

personally i think anyone would beat the a's right now the way they are hitting...that line is making my head spin too...

**lakerboy** · 08-17-10, 08:45 PM

A's ML -105 (2x)

**broadway6** · 08-17-10, 08:47 PM

Originally posted by MidgetTossers

personally i think anyone would beat the a's right now the way they are hitting...that line is making my head spin too...

go throw a midget

**lakerboy** · 08-17-10, 08:55 PM

A's/Jays over 7 -105 (1x)

**ayuntalo** · 08-17-10, 09:07 PM

Originally posted by lakerboy

These are all my plays tonight so far plus RAYS RL +130 (1x).

Angels lost as it closed at +130 or so.

Phils ml closed around -160 so i beat the closer and the RL was as low as +135 so beat it there as well. Rays RL closed at +129 at pinny so i beat it by 1 cent.

Cards RL closed at +118 so i think i am in trouble there.

I have already beaten the closer with ARizona as well. Lets see how the night finishes.

LB..so far perfect read according to the line movements..

**MidgetTossers** · 08-17-10, 09:16 PM

think the rays are safe to cash

**MidgetTossers** · 08-17-10, 09:18 PM

1-1!!!

**lakerboy** · 08-17-10, 09:25 PM

2-1 A's.

**MidgetTossers** · 08-17-10, 09:43 PM

can holliday hit a 3 run jack here?