LB thread for MLB plays 2010

**Tommy_de1st** · 08-08-10, 09:13 AM

I wasn't around last night to congratulate you. Im doing this now

**lakerboy** · 08-08-10, 01:07 PM

Dbacks ML +138 (5x)

**lakerboy** · 08-08-10, 01:10 PM

Brewers/Astros under 8 +111 (2x)

**No coincidences** · 08-08-10, 01:17 PM

Originally posted by lakerboy

Dbacks ML +138 (5x)

**phillydon215** · 08-08-10, 02:24 PM

hey lakerboy live in philly my whole hospital was following ya nba picks thanks to man and are u capping the nfl game today?

**lakerboy** · 08-08-10, 03:23 PM

Originally posted by phillydon215

hey lakerboy live in philly my whole hospital was following ya nba picks thanks to man and are u capping the nfl game today?

thanks

i would suggest under 33 in that game but im not playing it. no opinion on the side.

**Wilforth** · 08-08-10, 03:27 PM

I tailed your Dbacks play somehow. I did Dbacks +0.5 FF (-110).
BOL

**phillydon215** · 08-08-10, 03:56 PM

thanks big guy gL to u on your plays... under for me then.

**JR007** · 08-08-10, 05:32 PM

THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN PRESEASON
AND REGULAR SEASON HANDICAPPING
The lines are now up in the NFL not only for this Sunday's Hall of Fame Game matching Dallas and Cincinnati, but for the first full week as well. You've probably been studying them already, trying to pick out your favorite sides and totals. Let me offer some quick guidelines before you get too far along in the process.
*Every preseason game starts out as basically 'Host by 2 and 33.' Lines are condensed because these are exhibitions instead of full games. Home field isn't given a full three points. Some sharps would tell you 1.5 or even 1 is better than 2 for home field. But, oddsmakers know the public gives more weight than that to home field, so it's generally about 2 points as a general rule. Some oddsmakers will use 3 if it's a public team with an explosive offense that's playing at home. The last thing sportsbooks want is to get one-sided on a preseason game...and that can happen if a respected home team is laying a number the public thinks instinctively is too low. Also, realize that if oddsmakers made every line 'Host by 3,' sharps would pound every road underdog because of that key number.
*Any move off the 2 and 33 are based on well known tendencies of teams from past preseasons. Coaches who generally care about results will see the line move against them. Coaches who don't worry at all about results will go the other way. For example, Indianapolis puts very little weight on preseason results. They're actually a home underdog in their opener against San Francisco.
*High profile talent acquisitions will influence lines as well. People assume the first team will want to emphasize the new personnel right away. Cincinnati is a 3-point favorite this Sunday Night vs. Dallas on a neutral field partly because many bettors think Terrell Owens and Chad Ochocinco will be motivated to put on an early show on TV. That may or may not happen once the game is underway. Nevada lines are based on expectations.
Donovan McNabb and the Washington Redskins are -3 in their home opener vs. Buffalo instead of -2. New big name quarterback. New big name coach. Higher line.
In terms of the numbers you're seeing now, those are the main influences. Preseason action has become notable for game day steam from sharp bettors (professional wagerers). Whenever a line moves 1-2 points on the afternoon of a Preseason game, it can usually be traced to a sharp betting that one backup QB will dominate the other in the second half. The opening lines that go up from oddsmakers tend not to involve backups, unless there's a very clear tendency from past seasons with a particular team, coach, or rotation.
So, if you're the type of handicapper who likes to study backups, get your work done early! You'll probably be in line with the sharps, and you don't want to take the worst of it after a line move because you waited too long.
Here are the mistakes that squares (the general public) tend to make:
*They bet too many favorites (like always)
*They bet too many home teams (like always)
*They bet too many playoff teams from last year
*They bet too many Overs
*They bet the TV games even if they don't have an opinion
*They bet too many trends they heard about from past years even if those trends don't apply any more
*They bet more than they should given the relative coin flip nature of Preseason games

**phillydon215** · 08-08-10, 05:35 PM

good write up buddy .........im leaning dal and under.... wrong thread but just thought i shared

**paco** · 08-08-10, 11:05 PM

Originally posted by lakerboy

thanks

i would suggest under 33 in that game but im not playing it. no opinion on the side.

Easy winner on the Under

Too bad I don't play preseason

**phillydon215** · 08-09-10, 12:13 AM

Thanks lb for the pick would give u points think I gave u all mines but are u going make a NFL thread or just keep looking around for your picks

**lakerboy** · 08-09-10, 11:44 AM

Red Sox ML +121 (1x)

**lakerboy** · 08-09-10, 11:45 AM

Originally posted by phillydon215

Thanks lb for the pick would give u points think I gave u all mines but are u going make a NFL thread or just keep looking around for your picks

No prob. Not sure if i make a thread but will have some plays here and there.

**broadway6** · 08-09-10, 11:59 AM

Oakland is the biggest square play of the day. 90% are on them.....for good reason. watch a square play lose for a change

**phillydon215** · 08-09-10, 01:21 PM

O ook lb thanks for the heads up u looked at the lineup for Thursday yet? Need some winners

**$Burm$** · 08-09-10, 02:25 PM

damn, missed ur sox play LB...GL with it, its lookin good so far

**SRBI** · 08-09-10, 02:33 PM

Originally posted by lakerboy

Red Sox ML +121 (1x)

Didn't even notice you were on the Sox today, that makes two of us pal, lets hope they hold!

**phillydon215** · 08-09-10, 05:05 PM

Good pick laker boy u the man

**JR007** · 08-09-10, 06:04 PM

Orioles tonight LB ????? 5-1 last 6

**lakerboy** · 08-10-10, 12:16 PM

Jr nice avatar

Mets ML +141 (1x)

**lakerboy** · 08-10-10, 09:46 PM

Originally posted by lakerboy

Jr nice avatar

Mets ML +141 (1x)

Good call LB

**No coincidences** · 08-10-10, 09:51 PM

Holy Pelfrey.

Where did that come from?

**og4667** · 08-10-10, 10:04 PM

nice hit on the Mets. You have been cashing those mets 1-0 wins lately, nerveracking to say the least.

**Goat Milk** · 08-10-10, 11:03 PM

Originally posted by lakerboy

No prob. Not sure if i make a thread but will have some plays here and there.

Make a thread for us niggga. I will post in it. You can deal with the trolls. Works out good for all of us.

**Pauulzcappin** · 08-10-10, 11:04 PM

Make a thread man, I don't know much about NFL would love to learn about it.

**$Burm$** · 08-10-10, 11:19 PM

wish i wouldve been on earlier 2day to see ur play LB..nice call

**Tommy_de1st** · 08-11-10, 03:22 AM

Originally posted by Pauulzcappin

Make a thread man, I don't know much about NFL would love to learn about it.

Same here

**phillydon215** · 08-11-10, 09:32 AM

Hey lb u looked at the lineup for tomorrow yet in NFL ? Was wondering did u see anything worth playin?

**lakerboy** · 08-11-10, 09:59 AM

Originally posted by phillydon215

Hey lb u looked at the lineup for tomorrow yet in NFL ? Was wondering did u see anything worth playin?

No havent looked at anything yet. I will look tonight and maybe make a small play tomorrow. Right now im looking at afternoon bases.

**phillydon215** · 08-11-10, 10:13 AM

Oook thanks can't wait to see who u put up goodluck with ya MLB plays today

**lakerboy** · 08-11-10, 10:13 AM

Cards/Reds under 7.5 -110 (1x)

Astros ML +119 (1x)

Dbacks ML +120 (1x)

**Mr Windy City** · 08-11-10, 10:16 AM

Originally posted by lakerboy

Cards/Reds under 7.5 -110 (1x)

Astros ML +119 (1x)

Dbacks ML +120 (1x)

Good Luck, LB! Get it!

**ROFLcopter** · 08-11-10, 10:17 AM

Cards/Reds under is one of my new system plays. Good luck LB

**broadway6** · 08-11-10, 10:22 AM

Good luck bro