1. 05-30-15 04:49 PM #1
    No coincidences
    Baseball at The Corner
    No coincidences's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-18-10
    Posts: 76,300
    Betpoints: 16541

    Is fading 20-plus cent line moves in baseball becoming manditory?

    Jays, Rockies -- seems like every day, if a line gets steamed by more than 20 cents and you're on the "right" side of it, you are as good as buried.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  2. 05-30-15 04:53 PM #2
    EVfollower
    EVfollower's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 05-05-14
    Posts: 515
    Betpoints: 120

    So wait, STL was -150 and now they're -130. Are you saying take LAD or take STL here?

    I really like STL.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  3. 05-30-15 04:54 PM #3
    No coincidences
    Baseball at The Corner
    No coincidences's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-18-10
    Posts: 76,300
    Betpoints: 16541

    Quote Originally Posted by EVfollower View Post
    So wait, STL was -150 and now they're -130. Are you saying take LAD or take STL here?

    I really like STL.
    The way things have been going lately, Cardinals.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  4. 05-30-15 04:55 PM #4
    No coincidences
    Baseball at The Corner
    No coincidences's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-18-10
    Posts: 76,300
    Betpoints: 16541

    Add Nats to the list today as well.

    If you beat the closer by 20 or more cents in those three games today, you're 0-3.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  5. 05-30-15 04:56 PM #5
    No coincidences
    Baseball at The Corner
    No coincidences's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-18-10
    Posts: 76,300
    Betpoints: 16541

    Minnesota opened at -122, closed at +102. Won.
    Colorado opened at +102, closed at +124. Winning easily.
    Washington opened at -133, closed at +102. Winning easily.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  6. 05-30-15 05:03 PM #6
    HungarianHero
    HungarianHero's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 05-27-15
    Posts: 17
    Betpoints: 30

    Red Sox total was over 9.5 -113 on pinny last night. Now over 9.5 is +134.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  7. 05-30-15 05:15 PM #7
    t-bone
    t-bone's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-18-08
    Posts: 3,732
    Betpoints: 1871

    Quote Originally Posted by No coincidences View Post
    Jays, Rockies -- seems like every day, if a line gets steamed by more than 20 cents and you're on the "right" side of it, you are as good as buried.
    I noticed this the last couple years. Look at the White Sox last night.

    +120 to +150 and they win.

    Nice post bud!
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  8. 05-30-15 05:18 PM #8
    EVfollower
    EVfollower's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 05-05-14
    Posts: 515
    Betpoints: 120

    penetrate it.

    ONLINE
    05/30/2015
    03:17 PM
    [Ticket #: 214263327] STRAIGHT BET
    05/30/2015 @ 04:15 PM MLB [910] STL CARDINALS -129
    ( ACTION )
    		200.00 155.04
    ONLINE
    05/30/2015
    03:17 PM
    [Ticket #: 214263328] STRAIGHT BET
    05/30/2015 @ 04:15 PM MLB [1910] 1H STL CARDINALS -130
    ( C FRIAS -R / M WACHA -R )
    		200.00 153.85
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  9. 05-30-15 05:20 PM #9
    No coincidences
    Baseball at The Corner
    No coincidences's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-18-10
    Posts: 76,300
    Betpoints: 16541

    Quote Originally Posted by t-bone View Post
    I noticed this the last couple years. Look at the White Sox last night.

    +120 to +150 and they win.

    Nice post bud!
    It seems to be more and more obvious, the more I pay attention to it. Not saying it will hit every time, but the huge swings are almost always a sign you should be on the "other" side.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  10. 05-30-15 05:59 PM #10
    goduke
    goduke's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-17-10
    Posts: 11,569
    Betpoints: 2270

    lets not be lazy and jump to conclusions. Youre just spot picking games and assuming that works. Friday Balty 30 cent move in their favor and they won. Thursday Balty 25 cent in their favor and won. Wednesday Cards 24 cent move in their favor and won.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  11. 05-30-15 05:59 PM #11
    goduke
    goduke's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-17-10
    Posts: 11,569
    Betpoints: 2270

    Quote Originally Posted by No coincidences View Post
    It seems to be more and more obvious, the more I pay attention to it. Not saying it will hit every time, but the huge swings are almost always a sign you should be on the "other" side.
    Absolutely false. Back check your info the percentages arent really that much of a difference
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  12. 05-30-15 06:00 PM #12
    goduke
    goduke's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-17-10
    Posts: 11,569
    Betpoints: 2270

    Quote Originally Posted by No coincidences View Post
    Minnesota opened at -122, closed at +102. Won.
    Colorado opened at +102, closed at +124. Winning easily.
    Washington opened at -133, closed at +102. Winning easily.
    classic... Washington losing
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  13. 05-30-15 06:07 PM #13
    BigDofBA
    BigDofBA's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 09-30-09
    Posts: 19,311
    Betpoints: 2011

    Line movement is just one variable but it's more and more meaningless.

    When a line moves "that" much, I typically feel better Fadinf he movement.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  14. 05-30-15 06:09 PM #14
    goduke
    goduke's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-17-10
    Posts: 11,569
    Betpoints: 2270

    Quote Originally Posted by BigDofBA View Post
    Line movement is just one variable but it's more and more meaningless.

    When a line moves "that" much, I typically feel better Fadinf he movement.
    but thats just lazy capping in baseball. People always just jump to something silly like that when they didnt look over a game properly
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  15. 05-30-15 06:10 PM #15
    Vasco
    Vasco's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-16-12
    Posts: 315
    Betpoints: 3356

    The line moves are 100 percent irrelevant to the outcome. Ignore it.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  16. 05-30-15 06:11 PM #16
    R.P. McMurphy
    Update your status
    R.P. McMurphy's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 06-15-12
    Posts: 9,654
    Betpoints: 175

    Definitely noticed it a lot this year myself NC and mentioned it a couple weeks back in a thread somewhere. I was noticing a lot of the big faves that 65/80%of the tickets were coming in on would drop severely and cash at a much cheaper price than opener.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  17. 05-30-15 06:13 PM #17
    alamo
    Why R.E.M. and not The Go-Betweens
    alamo's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-21-09
    Posts: 7,131
    Betpoints: 10890

    Quote Originally Posted by No coincidences View Post
    Minnesota opened at -122, closed at +102. Won.
    Colorado opened at +102, closed at +124. Winning easily.
    Washington opened at -133, closed at +102. Winning easily.
    Washington are losing 8-5.

    Your sample is 3 games and its 2-1.... Come on man give it a break with these threads
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  18. 05-30-15 06:15 PM #18
    No coincidences
    Baseball at The Corner
    No coincidences's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-18-10
    Posts: 76,300
    Betpoints: 16541

    Quote Originally Posted by goduke View Post
    Absolutely false. Back check your info the percentages arent really that much of a difference
    Link?
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  19. 05-30-15 06:15 PM #19
    No coincidences
    Baseball at The Corner
    No coincidences's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-18-10
    Posts: 76,300
    Betpoints: 16541

    Quote Originally Posted by alamo View Post
    Washington are losing 8-5.

    Your sample is 3 games and its 2-1.... Come on man give it a break with these threads
    You wouldn't take 2-1?
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  20. 05-30-15 06:17 PM #20
    R.P. McMurphy
    Update your status
    R.P. McMurphy's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 06-15-12
    Posts: 9,654
    Betpoints: 175

    Alamo I've noticed it quite abit this year and apparently so have others. Doubt NC just stumbled upon this today! Guess that makes Cards/Halos candidates tonight but I'm already on Tiggies. Ruh roh
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  21. 05-30-15 06:20 PM #21
    No coincidences
    Baseball at The Corner
    No coincidences's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-18-10
    Posts: 76,300
    Betpoints: 16541

    Quote Originally Posted by R.P. McMurphy View Post
    Alamo I've noticed it quite abit this year and apparently so have others. Doubt NC just stumbled upon this today! Guess that makes Cards/Halos candidates tonight but I'm already on Tiggies. Ruh roh
    I am too. Feel like it's already a loser.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  22. 05-30-15 06:23 PM #22
    R.P. McMurphy
    Update your status
    R.P. McMurphy's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 06-15-12
    Posts: 9,654
    Betpoints: 175

    Lol you know as well as I do there are no certainties and this is just one of those "trends" I have casually noticed a lot this year. Don't track it, don't know any %'s to speak of just eye test and one of those little niches I put in back of memory bank. Bol Coin and go D!!!
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  23. 05-30-15 06:26 PM #23
    R.P. McMurphy
    Update your status
    R.P. McMurphy's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 06-15-12
    Posts: 9,654
    Betpoints: 175

    Dreamweaver I believe we can light him up toniHiiiight
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  24. 05-30-15 06:27 PM #24
    goduke
    goduke's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-17-10
    Posts: 11,569
    Betpoints: 2270

    Quote Originally Posted by No coincidences View Post
    Link?
    dude you can go right on sbr odds and back check each day. Put in the time. I used to check on this kind of stuff. The edge isnt there. Look over the whole baseball season youll see
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  25. 05-30-15 10:46 PM #25
    goduke
    goduke's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-17-10
    Posts: 11,569
    Betpoints: 2270

    like i said look at tonights games and their results. it all evens out, no edge
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  26. 05-31-15 12:29 AM #26
    alamo
    Why R.E.M. and not The Go-Betweens
    alamo's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-21-09
    Posts: 7,131
    Betpoints: 10890

    Quote Originally Posted by goduke View Post
    like i said look at tonights games and their results. it all evens out, no edge
    Agreed. Coin does this. Sees a trend of two games in a row go against him and thinks the books have conspired against him. Guy needs to chill out. These panic threads do the forum no favours.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  27. 05-31-15 12:36 AM #27
    goduke
    goduke's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-17-10
    Posts: 11,569
    Betpoints: 2270

    Quote Originally Posted by alamo View Post
    Agreed. Coin does this. Sees a trend of two games in a row go against him and thinks the books have conspired against him. Guy needs to chill out. These panic threads do the forum no favours.
    Its okay to look at angles but back test these angles before you go freaking out about it, thats all i was trying to really get at
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  28. 05-31-15 01:04 AM #28
    BigDofBA
    BigDofBA's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 09-30-09
    Posts: 19,311
    Betpoints: 2011

    So it went 2-2 tonight?

    That's still not a big enough sample size.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  29. 05-31-15 01:06 AM #29
    goduke
    goduke's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-17-10
    Posts: 11,569
    Betpoints: 2270

    Quote Originally Posted by BigDofBA View Post
    So it went 2-2 tonight?

    That's still not a big enough sample size.
    Ive backtested the whole season, the edge isnt there. Thats what i was trying to tell him earlier
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  30. 05-31-15 04:47 AM #30
    alamo
    Why R.E.M. and not The Go-Betweens
    alamo's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-21-09
    Posts: 7,131
    Betpoints: 10890

    Quote Originally Posted by BigDofBA View Post
    So it went 2-2 tonight?

    That's still not a big enough sample size.
    It was coin who started the thread when the first two games match the criteria.


    I'm waiting for his next one which will be probably something like "why do books keep giving out free money on Astros". Oh wait sorry he has that already !
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  31. 05-31-15 05:31 AM #31
    Allure
    Allure's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 08-18-10
    Posts: 7,589
    Betpoints: 15121

    Is this a question, is this a statement? Whats the point of this thread, and it also went 2-2 which makes it even more useless. Stop it already and for once start capping instead of fading popular plays with no real capping behind it.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  32. 05-31-15 05:34 AM #32
    R.P. McMurphy
    Update your status
    R.P. McMurphy's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 06-15-12
    Posts: 9,654
    Betpoints: 175

    Detroit crock city....thanks Greene for being the home run derby tosser
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  33. 05-31-15 07:19 AM #33
    Big Bear
    Love your neighbor
    Big Bear's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-01-11
    Posts: 43,253
    Betpoints: 14

    quit worrying about line movement it will cloud your judgement.

    Just pick the team you think is going to win.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  34. 05-31-15 07:20 AM #34
    Big Bear
    Love your neighbor
    Big Bear's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-01-11
    Posts: 43,253
    Betpoints: 14

    i used to worry about who the public was on and try to figure out line movement but the truth is that doesnt play much of a role in the outcome of a game.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  35. 05-31-15 08:19 AM #35
    Conqueror
    Conqueror's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 12-08-13
    Posts: 16,120
    Betpoints: 5662

    Quote Originally Posted by No coincidences View Post
    Jays, Rockies -- seems like every day, if a line gets steamed by more than 20 cents and you're on the "right" side of it, you are as good as buried.
    Yes, fading such line moves is mandatory in both baseball and soccer.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
12 Last
Top
« Previous Thread | Baseball Betting | Next Thread »