Is fading 20-plus cent line moves in baseball becoming manditory?

[No coincidences]

Jays, Rockies -- seems like every day, if a line gets steamed by more than 20 cents and you're on the "right" side of it, you are as good as buried.

[EVfollower]

So wait, STL was -150 and now they're -130. Are you saying take LAD or take STL here?

I really like STL.

[No coincidences]

So wait, STL was -150 and now they're -130. Are you saying take LAD or take STL here?

I really like STL.

The way things have been going lately, Cardinals.

[No coincidences]

Add Nats to the list today as well.

If you beat the closer by 20 or more cents in those three games today, you're 0-3.

[No coincidences]

Minnesota opened at -122, closed at +102. Won.
Colorado opened at +102, closed at +124. Winning easily.
Washington opened at -133, closed at +102. Winning easily.

[HungarianHero]

Red Sox total was over 9.5 -113 on pinny last night. Now over 9.5 is +134.

[t-bone]

Jays, Rockies -- seems like every day, if a line gets steamed by more than 20 cents and you're on the "right" side of it, you are as good as buried.

I noticed this the last couple years. Look at the White Sox last night.

+120 to +150 and they win.

Nice post bud!

[EVfollower]

penetrate it.

ONLINE 05/30/2015 03:17 PM	[Ticket #: 214263327] STRAIGHT BET 05/30/2015 @ 04:15 PM MLB [910] STL CARDINALS -129 ( ACTION ) 200.00 155.04
ONLINE 05/30/2015 03:17 PM	[Ticket #: 214263328] STRAIGHT BET 05/30/2015 @ 04:15 PM MLB [1910] 1H STL CARDINALS -130 ( C FRIAS -R / M WACHA -R ) 200.00 153.85

[No coincidences]

I noticed this the last couple years. Look at the White Sox last night.

+120 to +150 and they win.

Nice post bud!

It seems to be more and more obvious, the more I pay attention to it. Not saying it will hit every time, but the huge swings are almost always a sign you should be on the "other" side.

[goduke]

lets not be lazy and jump to conclusions. Youre just spot picking games and assuming that works. Friday Balty 30 cent move in their favor and they won. Thursday Balty 25 cent in their favor and won. Wednesday Cards 24 cent move in their favor and won.

[goduke]

It seems to be more and more obvious, the more I pay attention to it. Not saying it will hit every time, but the huge swings are almost always a sign you should be on the "other" side.

Absolutely false. Back check your info the percentages arent really that much of a difference

[goduke]

Minnesota opened at -122, closed at +102. Won.
Colorado opened at +102, closed at +124. Winning easily.
Washington opened at -133, closed at +102. Winning easily.

classic... Washington losing

[BigDofBA]

Line movement is just one variable but it's more and more meaningless.

When a line moves "that" much, I typically feel better Fadinf he movement.

[goduke]

Line movement is just one variable but it's more and more meaningless.

When a line moves "that" much, I typically feel better Fadinf he movement.

but thats just lazy capping in baseball. People always just jump to something silly like that when they didnt look over a game properly

[Vasco]

The line moves are 100 percent irrelevant to the outcome. Ignore it.

[R.P. McMurphy]

Definitely noticed it a lot this year myself NC and mentioned it a couple weeks back in a thread somewhere. I was noticing a lot of the big faves that 65/80%of the tickets were coming in on would drop severely and cash at a much cheaper price than opener.

[alamo]

Minnesota opened at -122, closed at +102. Won.
Colorado opened at +102, closed at +124. Winning easily.
Washington opened at -133, closed at +102. Winning easily.

Washington are losing 8-5.

Your sample is 3 games and its 2-1.... Come on man give it a break with these threads

[No coincidences]

Absolutely false. Back check your info the percentages arent really that much of a difference

Link?

[No coincidences]

Washington are losing 8-5.

Your sample is 3 games and its 2-1.... Come on man give it a break with these threads

You wouldn't take 2-1?

[R.P. McMurphy]

Alamo I've noticed it quite abit this year and apparently so have others. Doubt NC just stumbled upon this today! Guess that makes Cards/Halos candidates tonight but I'm already on Tiggies. Ruh roh

[No coincidences]

Alamo I've noticed it quite abit this year and apparently so have others. Doubt NC just stumbled upon this today! Guess that makes Cards/Halos candidates tonight but I'm already on Tiggies. Ruh roh

I am too. Feel like it's already a loser.

[R.P. McMurphy]

Lol you know as well as I do there are no certainties and this is just one of those "trends" I have casually noticed a lot this year. Don't track it, don't know any %'s to speak of just eye test and one of those little niches I put in back of memory bank. Bol Coin and go D!!!

[R.P. McMurphy]

Dreamweaver I believe we can light him up toniHiiiight

[goduke]

Link?

dude you can go right on sbr odds and back check each day. Put in the time. I used to check on this kind of stuff. The edge isnt there. Look over the whole baseball season youll see

[goduke]

like i said look at tonights games and their results. it all evens out, no edge

[alamo]

like i said look at tonights games and their results. it all evens out, no edge

Agreed. Coin does this. Sees a trend of two games in a row go against him and thinks the books have conspired against him. Guy needs to chill out. These panic threads do the forum no favours.

[goduke]

Agreed. Coin does this. Sees a trend of two games in a row go against him and thinks the books have conspired against him. Guy needs to chill out. These panic threads do the forum no favours.

Its okay to look at angles but back test these angles before you go freaking out about it, thats all i was trying to really get at

[BigDofBA]

So it went 2-2 tonight?

That's still not a big enough sample size.

[goduke]

So it went 2-2 tonight?

That's still not a big enough sample size.

Ive backtested the whole season, the edge isnt there. Thats what i was trying to tell him earlier

[alamo]

So it went 2-2 tonight?

That's still not a big enough sample size.

It was coin who started the thread when the first two games match the criteria.


I'm waiting for his next one which will be probably something like "why do books keep giving out free money on Astros". Oh wait sorry he has that already !

[Allure]

Is this a question, is this a statement? Whats the point of this thread, and it also went 2-2 which makes it even more useless. Stop it already and for once start capping instead of fading popular plays with no real capping behind it.

[R.P. McMurphy]

Detroit crock city....thanks Greene for being the home run derby tosser

[Big Bear]

quit worrying about line movement it will cloud your judgement.

Just pick the team you think is going to win.

[Big Bear]

i used to worry about who the public was on and try to figure out line movement but the truth is that doesnt play much of a role in the outcome of a game.

[Conqueror]

Jays, Rockies -- seems like every day, if a line gets steamed by more than 20 cents and you're on the "right" side of it, you are as good as buried.

Yes, fading such line moves is mandatory in both baseball and soccer.