MLB - Tuesday, 8/27/19

**Hot Jerry** · 08-27-19, 07:22 AM

Today - A's and Dodgers !

**jjgold** · 08-27-19, 07:36 AM

LT 40 units should be your threshold

What pressure now for football

You need to win like 50 units

**Brock Landers** · 08-27-19, 07:44 AM

Borderline impossible to lose that many units pal LOL

**dawg58kahn** · 08-27-19, 08:00 AM

fading again today

**LT Profits** · 08-27-19, 08:28 AM

Originally posted by Brock Landers

Borderline impossible to lose that many units pal LOL

You are talking as if I don't realize that every time I check my sportsbook balances in the morning.

Right now my biggest fear is not losing the whole +56.88 units I am up in the other 5 sports I do over the past year (including NFLX this year).

Look, this the last time I will say this because I am starting to sound like a broken record: The purpose of these threads is to track my real life bets win or lose, and I will continue to bet MLB so the threads will continue. Thankfully I am still up overall over all sports, but the one sport I am losing in is the sport where I entered the year with 4 winning seasons in the last 5 years including an unprecedented +93 units in 2015. just file this season away as a "shit happens" aberration. Besides, I can't change my record so far, but I expect to have a winning record the rest of the way so even if I pick up just few units, it is a few units I would miss out on by stopping.

**alekim** · 08-27-19, 08:29 AM

System update needed

**LT Profits** · 08-27-19, 08:51 AM

Originally posted by alekim

System update needed

That is something to look at in the off-season, worst thing to do is to make a fundamental change that would mess up the other 5 sports, so only change I would make is changing stat-mix used for MLB, something that would take days of back-testing.

**jjgold** · 08-27-19, 08:54 AM

We’re having a meeting today with LT profits were bringing in some of our expert’s just to look at his model and we think we can solve it by the end of the day

**Brock Landers** · 08-27-19, 09:41 AM

Originally posted by jjgold

We’re having a meeting today with LT profits were bringing in some of our expert’s just to look at his model and we think we can solve it by the end of the day

No, it's a revolutionairy model, producing unbelievable results.

Don't change a fuckin thing, ya folla?

**firedawg** · 08-27-19, 09:57 AM

Originally posted by Brock Landers

Borderline impossible to lose that many units pal LOL

If anyone would know
It's YOU

**RudyRuetigger** · 08-27-19, 09:59 AM

Originally posted by Brock Landers

Borderline impossible to lose that many units pal LOL

wow

**firedawg** · 08-27-19, 10:48 AM

Brock feeling cocky week 1 of football
It will end like every other year
Brock barreled In scamming everyone around him

Pathetic

**KVB** · 08-27-19, 10:51 AM

Many of us riding the ups and down, LT just can't catch a bread to the upside in either half of this season.

**MinnesotaFats** · 08-27-19, 11:01 AM

LT if a game really stood out, like way outside the standard deviation of your model, would you bet a significant amount of units on it?

**stake1** · 08-27-19, 12:27 PM

Originally posted by Brock Landers

No, it's a revolutionairy model, producing unbelievable results.

Don't change a fuckin thing, ya folla?

Just too damn bad you could not fade any of his picks. LOL

But somehow if you actually scratched 2 quarters together?

Well from what I hear, you owe a lot to plenty. Probably should pay up stiff trucker. Ya folla?

**LT Profits** · 08-27-19, 02:41 PM

Originally posted by MinnesotaFats

LT if a game really stood out, like way outside the standard deviation of your model, would you bet a significant amount of units on it?

Just the opposite, I hate extreme variance and would pass the game.

**KVB** · 08-27-19, 02:56 PM

Originally posted by LT Profits

Just the opposite, I hate extreme variance and would pass the game.

Was thinking the same thing well before you responded.

Plenty of evidence in my work shows increasing rates of win with discrepancy, to a point. Then shit goes bad. I know why this happens, but it's not getting posted here. Maybe some other time.

It's indicative of a mistake somewhere along the way in capping, but it's not always a mistake. Sometimes it's the market's "mistake" if that's what you want to call it.

**LT Profits** · 08-27-19, 03:35 PM

2 MLB Additions

6 MLB Plays Tuesday

Cubs / Mets UNDER 8.5 -110 (Heritage)
White Sox +108 (Heritage)
Rays / Astros UNDER 7.5 +105 (Heritage)
Diamondbacks +122 (Heritage)
Mariners +1.5 +100 (Heritage)
Yankees / Mariners 9.5 -110 (Heritage)

**KVB** · 08-27-19, 04:38 PM

Picked up Zona in the Contrarain Fund and will likely be on SEA +1.5 too, might get more than even money.

Let's get some wins, LT.

**jolyolyolyman** · 08-27-19, 04:41 PM

Originally posted by KVB

Picked up Zona in the Contrarain Fund and will likely be on SEA +1.5 too, might get more than even money.

Let's get some wins, LT.

You guys got balls of steel fading the Yanks with Kikuchi on the bump. I can’t talk though I’m fading Verlander. Best of luck tonight!

**flakeandbake** · 08-27-19, 05:49 PM

Originally posted by LT Profits

4 MLB Plays Tuesday

Cubs / Mets UNDER 8.5 -110 (Heritage)
White Sox +108 (Heritage)
Rays / Astros UNDER 7.5 +105 (Heritage)
Mariners +1.5 +100 (Heritage)

YTD: 273-318-14, -39.80 (UGH!)

Record at All-Star Break: 183-208-10, -21.46

Tailing cubs under, whitesox and rays under. I only tail the plays that I don’t notice from you and avoid the ones I like/ same side

**dawg58kahn** · 08-27-19, 06:02 PM

Originally posted by flakeandbake

Tailing cubs under, whitesox and rays under. I only tail the plays that I don’t notice from you and avoid the ones I like/ same side

lmao what a fade strategy

**flakeandbake** · 08-27-19, 06:43 PM

Originally posted by flakeandbake

Tailing cubs under, whitesox and rays under. I only tail the plays that I don’t notice from you and avoid the ones I like/ same side

Actually scratch the whitesox - JJ Gold is on them so on went cubs and rays unders based on that lol

**tradeout** · 08-27-19, 07:27 PM

Originally posted by LT Profits

Yankees / Mariners 9.5 -110 (Heritage)

under or over?

**pavyracer** · 08-27-19, 08:55 PM

Lets assume LT didn't spend 3 hours every night modeling next day's games and flipped coins on 6 games a day..would he be down -40 units?

**flakeandbake** · 08-27-19, 09:26 PM

Stros soaring over

**GreatWallofTrump** · 08-28-19, 12:00 AM

Can’t wait until Wednesday picks.

**Hot Jerry** · 08-28-19, 12:25 AM

Originally posted by GreatWallofTrump

Can’t wait until Wednesday picks.

LOL - save ur money - LOL !!

**mjsuax13** · 08-28-19, 12:26 AM

I thought Brock was the best fade on SBR?

**DrunkHorseplayer** · 08-28-19, 01:08 AM

If you're going to rag on him, post your own picks and keep honest track like he does; let's see how all of you do.

**LT Profits** · 08-28-19, 06:15 AM

Woohoo, winning 22-cent split!

**jjgold** · 08-28-19, 06:35 AM

Originally posted by mjsuax13

I thought Brock was the best fade on SBR?

what does that exactly mean??

**flakeandbake** · 08-28-19, 10:06 AM

Originally posted by KVB

Was thinking the same thing well before you responded.

Plenty of evidence in my work shows increasing rates of win with discrepancy, to a point. Then shit goes bad. I know why this happens, but it's not getting posted here. Maybe some other time.

It's indicative of a mistake somewhere along the way in capping, but it's not always a mistake. Sometimes it's the market's "mistake" if that's what you want to call it.

Ooo don’t post it here. Wouldn’t want anyone to see your secrets 😂

**KVB** · 08-28-19, 10:50 AM

Originally posted by flakeandbake

Ooo don’t post it here. Wouldn’t want anyone to see your secrets 

Hardly a secret, lol, just will bring a lot of controversy, mostly born out of ignorance.

If you track your bets and why you made them, things will be evident.

But if you are just following and fading posters, then you will have no idea why you made the bets, so all you are left with is far less meaningful tracking.

As a poster who bets this way, it wouldn't matter what was revealed to you.