MLB RPI Chase 2016

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  • MrMannix
    SBR High Roller
    • 11-15-08
    • 172

    #1
    MLB RPI Chase 2016
    Found this rpi system from 2011. Haven't seen any records last few years. Gonna track it to see how it plays out:
    This betting system (not mine) was used in 2011 and went 89-1. Please read all of the points carefully and if you have any questions I'll try to answer the best I can.
    1) This is a series chase. DO NOT chase after a 3rd straight loss in a 4 game series.
    2) How to pick a series (pre all star game): Check the upcoming series against the ESPN RPI rankings. If any team is the visiting team and has an RPI of over 50 points or more over the home team they are playing, take the visiting team for a series chase. If any team is the home team and they have an RPI of 42 points or more than the visiting team, take the home team for a series chase.
    Filters:
    1) If the lower RPI has been playing significantly better baseball over the last week or so, do not play the series.
    2) Losing streaks: Big losing streaks by the better RPI team..dont play the series.
    3) Teams going in obivious opposite directions in the W/L column, you can take the series even in off a point or two on the RPI.
    4) Injuries: Watch how the teams play for a few days then decide to take a series if a good player has been hurt.
    5) In a 4 Game Series, if and ONLY if the team you bet on for the series wins the FIRST game of a 4 game series, start the series over the next day as a new series. Basically banking on the team to win one of the next 3 as well.
    6) Do NOT take a team that is .500 or below no matter how far off the RPI is.
    7) If the team with the higher RPI is playing Back to Back TWO (2) game series, take the chase as if playing a 4 game series versus a lesser opponent. Both teams MUST mee the RPI qualifications before the first game of the first 2 game series.
    8) POST ALL STAR GAME RPI DIFFERENCE NEEDED: 35 Home and 42 for Visiting team
    Money Management 1. Use a modified martingale approach. Here's an example using a -200 line: A BET: $60 to WIN $30. Lets say it loses... B BET: $180 to WIN $90. You have essentially covered your first loss and still going for a $30 win. Let's assume this loses... C BET: Bet the EXACT same amout to win as "A" Bet. So "C" game bet would be $60 once again. You don't have to do this all the time and you're right in thinking that the series will lose you money, BUT it saves your bankroll in case of a series sweep.
    NOTES (from system creator): 65% (series) consistently win within the "A" game and 26% (series) will win with the "B" game. So approximately 90-91% of ALL series within the MLB RPI system will win with these A &B bests and those winnings and future winnings will absorb the "C" games. In 2011, only 8 of all series played went to "C" game and only one lost.
    2011 STATS:
    A Game wins: 58
    B Game wins: 23
    C Game wins: 8
    Losses: 1

    Will track it as traditional chase to win 1 unit.
    Will not play if team has lost 4 in a row.
    Will not play if team has 3 wins or worse for last 10 games.
    Will not play if starting pitcher, major reliever(i.e. Closer), or major starting player is injured, suspended, etc. for 1st game of series.
    Starting with the series that start on May 2.

    Let's see how this goes!
    Last edited by MrMannix; 05-02-16, 03:04 PM.
  • MrMannix
    SBR High Roller
    • 11-15-08
    • 172

    #2
    Record 0-0
    0 Units
    A= 0-0
    B= 0-0
    C= 0-0

    5/2
    CHC(A)+120, risking 1 unit
    NYM(A) -200, risking 2 units
    PHI(A) +155, risking 1 unit
    Last edited by MrMannix; 05-02-16, 06:29 PM.
    Comment
    • MrMannix
      SBR High Roller
      • 11-15-08
      • 172

      #3
      Record 2-0
      +1.2 Units
      A= 2-1
      B= 0-0
      C= 0-0
      Open series= 1


      5/2 Results:
      CHC(A)+120, risking 1 unit= Win
      NYM(A) -200, risking 2 units=Win
      PHI(A) +155, risking 1 unit= Loss
      Comment
      • MrMannix
        SBR High Roller
        • 11-15-08
        • 172

        #4
        5/3
        BAL(A) -120, to win 1 unit
        CHW(A) -140, to win 1 unit
        PHI(B) +130, risking 2 units
        Comment
        • SteezW
          SBR Hustler
          • 04-24-16
          • 50

          #5
          Originally posted by MrMannix
          5/3
          BAL(A) -120, to win 1 unit
          CHW(A) -140, to win 1 unit
          PHI(B) +130, risking 2 units
          3 for 3. Very nice

          Do you have a link to the 2011 system and results?
          Comment
          • MrMannix
            SBR High Roller
            • 11-15-08
            • 172

            #6
            Record 5-0
            +5.8 Units
            A= 4-1
            B= 1-0
            C= 0-0


            5/3 Results:
            BAL(A) -120, to win 1 unit= Win
            CHW(A) -140, to win 1 unit= Win
            PHI(B) +130, risking 2 units= Win


            5/4
            No Plays
            Comment
            • MrMannix
              SBR High Roller
              • 11-15-08
              • 172

              #7
              Originally posted by SteezW
              3 for 3. Very nice

              Do you have a link to the 2011 system and results?
              Only the record. I've been interested in RPI filters since the JM system has used it but haven't found a system that uses it proficiently. Found this one on reddit & seemed plausible. Couldn't find any other records on it after 2011, where it went 89-1. They said someone was running it on covers but couldn't find any evidence of that so I figured I'd run it in here for 2016 to see how it goes. Tough to back track because do rpi #'s.
              i wouldn't suggest blindly playing these here. For tracking purposes but I will be capping some of these plays & playing on some if I like em.
              Also- the caveats after the record in the system explanation are added filters I placed to solidify some of the looser aspects of the system(i.e. Losing streaks)
              Comment
              • MrMannix
                SBR High Roller
                • 11-15-08
                • 172

                #8
                Probable NYM play tomorrow
                Comment
                • MrMannix
                  SBR High Roller
                  • 11-15-08
                  • 172

                  #9
                  Record 5-0
                  +5.8 Units
                  A= 4-1
                  B= 1-0
                  C= 0-0

                  5/5
                  NYM(A) -175, to win 1 unit
                  SEA(A) -110, to win 1 unit
                  Comment
                  • MrMannix
                    SBR High Roller
                    • 11-15-08
                    • 172

                    #10
                    Probable play on CHW & slim possibility of BAL & BOS tomorrow, 5/6.
                    Comment
                    • MrMannix
                      SBR High Roller
                      • 11-15-08
                      • 172

                      #11
                      Record 6-0
                      +6.8 Units
                      A= 5-2
                      B= 1-0
                      C= 0-0
                      Open Series: 1(-1.75 units)


                      5/5
                      NYM(A) -175, to win 1 unit= Loss
                      SEA(A) -110, to win 1 unit= Win
                      Comment
                      • MrMannix
                        SBR High Roller
                        • 11-15-08
                        • 172

                        #12
                        Record 6-0
                        +6.8 Units
                        A= 5-2
                        B= 1-0
                        C= 0-0
                        Open Series: 1(-1.75 units)


                        5/6
                        BOS(A) Even, risking 1 unit
                        CHW(A) -130, to win 1 unit
                        SEA(A) -120, to win 1 unit
                        NYM(B) -150, to win 2.75 units

                        I missed that SEA had 4 game series with HOU, so after winning the 1st game they would qualify as another A play for the remaining 3 games.
                        Last edited by MrMannix; 05-06-16, 11:16 PM.
                        Comment
                        • MrMannix
                          SBR High Roller
                          • 11-15-08
                          • 172

                          #13
                          Record 6-0
                          +7.8 Units
                          A= 6-4
                          B= 1-1
                          C= 0-0
                          Open Series: 3(-8.1 units)




                          5/6 Results:
                          BOS(A) Even, risking 1 unit= Loss
                          CHW(A) -130, to win 1 unit= Win
                          SEA(A) -120, to win 1 unit= Loss
                          NYM(B) -150, to win 2.75 units= Loss
                          Comment
                          • MrMannix
                            SBR High Roller
                            • 11-15-08
                            • 172

                            #14
                            Record 6-0
                            +7.8 Units
                            A= 6-4
                            B= 1-1
                            C= 0-0
                            Open Series: 3(-8.1 units)


                            5/7
                            BOS(B) -130, to win 2.3 units
                            SEA(B) +135, risking 2.2 units
                            NYM(C) -145, to win 7.3 units
                            Comment
                            • MrHappy
                              SBR Sharp
                              • 02-06-15
                              • 322

                              #15
                              Good job. Keep up the hard work.
                              Comment
                              • MrMannix
                                SBR High Roller
                                • 11-15-08
                                • 172

                                #16
                                Record 8-0
                                +10.8 Units
                                A= 6-4
                                B=1-2
                                C= 1-0
                                Open Series: 1(-4 units)

                                5/7 Results:
                                BOS(B) -130, to win 2.3 units= Loss
                                SEA(B) +135, risking 2.2 units= Win
                                NYM(C) -145, to win 7.3 units= Win
                                Last edited by MrMannix; 05-08-16, 09:11 AM.
                                Comment
                                • MrMannix
                                  SBR High Roller
                                  • 11-15-08
                                  • 172

                                  #17
                                  Record 8-0
                                  +10.8 Units
                                  A= 6-4
                                  B= 1-2
                                  C= 1-0
                                  Open Series: 1(-4 units)


                                  5/8
                                  BOS(C) -105, to win 5 units
                                  Last edited by MrMannix; 05-08-16, 09:11 AM.
                                  Comment
                                  • MrMannix
                                    SBR High Roller
                                    • 11-15-08
                                    • 172

                                    #18
                                    Looking at WAS, MIA, CHC, CLE, & BAL for tomorrow.
                                    Comment
                                    • MrMannix
                                      SBR High Roller
                                      • 11-15-08
                                      • 172

                                      #19
                                      Record 9-0
                                      +11.8 Units
                                      A= 6-4
                                      B= 1-2
                                      C= 2-0
                                      Open Series: 0

                                      5/8 Results:
                                      BOS(C) -105, to win 5 units= Win
                                      Comment
                                      • MrMannix
                                        SBR High Roller
                                        • 11-15-08
                                        • 172

                                        #20
                                        Record 9-0
                                        +11.8 Units
                                        A= 6-4
                                        B= 1-2
                                        C= 2-0
                                        Open Series: 0

                                        5/9
                                        MIA(A) -240, to win 1 unit
                                        CHC(A) -240, to win 1 unit
                                        CLE(A) -120, to win 1 unit
                                        BAL(A) Even, risking 1 unit
                                        Comment
                                        • MrMannix
                                          SBR High Roller
                                          • 11-15-08
                                          • 172

                                          #21
                                          A lot of plays today, a few with heavy juice. Worries me a bit.
                                          Wondering if the plays are gonna ease off a little. At this rate we may well be way over the 90 plays that were tracked in 2011.

                                          Also, WAS would apply but they are coming off of a 4 game sweep at the hands of the Cubs. I don't see them having a problem winning 1 against a reeling DET team. Won't be official for tracking purposes though.
                                          Last edited by MrMannix; 05-09-16, 03:28 PM.
                                          Comment
                                          • MrMannix
                                            SBR High Roller
                                            • 11-15-08
                                            • 172

                                            #22
                                            Record 10-0
                                            +12.8 Units
                                            A= 7-5
                                            B= 1-2
                                            C= 2-0
                                            Open Series: 1(-1.2 units)

                                            5/9 Results:
                                            MIA(A) -240, to win 1 unit= Win
                                            CHC(A) -240, to win 1 unit= Postponed(will start on 5/10- doubleheader on 5/11)
                                            CLE(A) -120, to win 1 unit= Loss
                                            BAL(A) Even, risking 1 unit= Postponed(series canceled due to no rescheduling of this game in the series)
                                            Last edited by MrMannix; 05-10-16, 03:01 PM.
                                            Comment
                                            • MrMannix
                                              SBR High Roller
                                              • 11-15-08
                                              • 172

                                              #23
                                              Record 10-0
                                              +12.8 Units
                                              A= 7-5
                                              B= 1-2
                                              C= 2-0
                                              Open Series: 1(-1.2 units)

                                              5/10
                                              PHI(A) Even, risking 1 unit
                                              CHC(A) -265, to win 1 unit
                                              CLE(B) +105, risking 2.2 units
                                              Last edited by MrMannix; 05-10-16, 06:24 PM.
                                              Comment
                                              • MrMannix
                                                SBR High Roller
                                                • 11-15-08
                                                • 172

                                                #24
                                                Record 13-0
                                                +16.1 Units
                                                A= 9-5
                                                B= 2-2
                                                C= 2-0
                                                Open Series: 0


                                                5/10 Results:
                                                PHI(A) Even, risking 1 unit= Win
                                                CHC(A) -265, to win 1 unit= Win
                                                CLE(B) +105, risking 2.2 units= Win

                                                5/11
                                                No Plays
                                                Comment
                                                • MrMannix
                                                  SBR High Roller
                                                  • 11-15-08
                                                  • 172

                                                  #25
                                                  BAL & BOS probable for 5/12. Both are 4 game series- possibly 2 plays if A play wins.
                                                  Looking at CHC, CHW, & CLE for 5/13.
                                                  Last edited by MrMannix; 05-11-16, 04:42 PM.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • MrMannix
                                                    SBR High Roller
                                                    • 11-15-08
                                                    • 172

                                                    #26
                                                    Record 13-0
                                                    +16.1 Units
                                                    A= 9-5
                                                    B= 2-2
                                                    C= 2-0
                                                    Open Series: 0

                                                    5/12
                                                    BAL(A) -170, to win 1 unit
                                                    BOS(A) -140, to win 1 unit
                                                    Both 4 game series.
                                                    Comment
                                                    • MrHappy
                                                      SBR Sharp
                                                      • 02-06-15
                                                      • 322

                                                      #27
                                                      Looking forward to being able to double down on these 2 series. Keep it up.
                                                      Comment
                                                      • MrMannix
                                                        SBR High Roller
                                                        • 11-15-08
                                                        • 172

                                                        #28
                                                        Record 15-0
                                                        +17.1 Units
                                                        A= 11-5
                                                        B= 2-2
                                                        C= 2-0
                                                        Open Series: 0


                                                        5/12 Results:
                                                        BAL(A) -170, to win 1 unit= Win
                                                        BOS(A) -140, to win 1 unit= Win
                                                        Comment
                                                        • MrMannix
                                                          SBR High Roller
                                                          • 11-15-08
                                                          • 172

                                                          #29
                                                          Record 15-0
                                                          +17.1 Units
                                                          A= 11-5
                                                          B= 2-2
                                                          C= 2-0
                                                          Open Series: 0

                                                          5/13
                                                          CHC(A) -155, to win 1 unit
                                                          BAL(A) -150, to win 1 unit
                                                          BOS(A) -150, to win 1 unit
                                                          CLE(A) -160, to win 1 unit
                                                          Comment
                                                          • MrMannix
                                                            SBR High Roller
                                                            • 11-15-08
                                                            • 172

                                                            #30
                                                            CHW were right on the edge of a play but just 2 points shy.
                                                            They should be a strong play with Sale pitching off of 2 team losses.
                                                            Severino pitched well against the Sox but has only faced them once in his career & Chicago has been hitting lefties very well this year. Only thing that worries me is that the Yanks bats have heated up lately.
                                                            Just 1 play on CHW for me here but not chasing it.
                                                            Comment
                                                            • MrMannix
                                                              SBR High Roller
                                                              • 11-15-08
                                                              • 172

                                                              #31
                                                              Record 18-0
                                                              +20.1 Units
                                                              A= 14-6
                                                              B= 2-2
                                                              C= 2-0
                                                              Open Series: 1(-1.5 units)

                                                              5/13 Results:
                                                              CHC(A) -155, to win 1 unit= Win
                                                              BAL(A) -150, to win 1 unit= Win
                                                              BOS(A) -150, to win 1 unit= Loss
                                                              CLE(A) -160, to win 1 unit= Win
                                                              Comment
                                                              • MrMannix
                                                                SBR High Roller
                                                                • 11-15-08
                                                                • 172

                                                                #32
                                                                Record 18-0
                                                                +20.1 Units
                                                                A= 14-6
                                                                B= 2-2
                                                                C= 2-0
                                                                Open Series: 1(-1.5 units)


                                                                5/14
                                                                BOS(B) -130, to win 2.5 units
                                                                Comment
                                                                • MrMannix
                                                                  SBR High Roller
                                                                  • 11-15-08
                                                                  • 172

                                                                  #33
                                                                  Record 19-0
                                                                  +21.1 Units
                                                                  A= 14-6
                                                                  B= 3-2
                                                                  C= 2-0
                                                                  Open Series: 0


                                                                  5/14 Results:
                                                                  BOS(B) -130, to win 2.5 units= Win

                                                                  5/15
                                                                  No Plays
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • cala56
                                                                    SBR MVP
                                                                    • 02-25-10
                                                                    • 4231

                                                                    #34
                                                                    Good luck, i Will check it.
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • MrMannix
                                                                      SBR High Roller
                                                                      • 11-15-08
                                                                      • 172

                                                                      #35
                                                                      Probable plays on BOS & PIT(4 game series) for 5/16 and CHC & CHW for 5/17.
                                                                      Comment
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