***** Totals and Sides *****

[doubledime]

Good morning,

The Reliever Plays for Tuesday:

Mia/Philly over 8
Atl/Reds over 9
SD/Cards over 8
Min/Det over 10
Hou/Oak over 8

Good luck

[Can U Tank It]

Good morning,

Yesterday:

Regular Plays: 2-0
YTD: 81-57 +16.90 units

Reliever Plays: 4-3
YTD 230-171

Back later with today's plays

Good luck

nice job dime! with you all the way

[HeeluvaGuy]

Well yesterday didn't give us anything crystal clear with the added starter information, but I wouldn't expect one day to do that anyway (see below for my current idea). Here's what I have for DD's Reliever Plays today:

Team	Pitcher	GS	Avg IP/GS	GS 6+ IP	% GS 6+IP
MIA	Urena	0	0	0	#DIV/0!
PHI	Velasquez	15	5.1	8	53.3%
ATL	Jenkins	17	6.1	13	76.5%
CIN	Reed	18	5.2	10	55.6%
SDP	Rea	16	5.1	6	37.5%
STL	Martinez	17	6.1	12	70.6%
MIN	Milone	8	4.3	2	25.0%
DET	Sanchez	14	5.00	4	28.6%
HOU	Keuchel	19	6.1	16	84.2%
OAK	Overton	2	4.1	0	0.0%

I see two potential "rules" you could have used with yesterday's starter numbers and improved results.

1) Eliminate all overs where BOTH SPs went 6+ IIP 60% or more of the time. That would have gotten you to 4-2 (leaving the under play alone).

2) Eliminate all overs where EITHER SP went 6+ IPs 60% or more of the time. That would have eliminated all but the HOU/OAK game (and left the under alone) for a 2-0 day.

Time will tell if either of these is a viable filter (or if there is something better out there like adding innings). It also strikes me that this could be a useful tool in playing team totals. But there's no need to clutter up DD's thread any more with theories.

For anyone interested, I did the SPs for all of today's games. They are here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...it?usp=sharing

[doubledime]

nice job dime! with you all the way

[doubledime]

Well yesterday didn't give us anything crystal clear with the added starter information, but I wouldn't expect one day to do that anyway (see below for my current idea). Here's what I have for DD's Reliever Plays today:

Team	Pitcher	GS	Avg IP/GS	GS 6+ IP	% GS 6+IP
MIA	Urena	0	0	0	#DIV/0!
PHI	Velasquez	15	5.1	8	53.3%
ATL	Jenkins	17	6.1	13	76.5%
CIN	Reed	18	5.2	10	55.6%
SDP	Rea	16	5.1	6	37.5%
STL	Martinez	17	6.1	12	70.6%
MIN	Milone	8	4.3	2	25.0%
DET	Sanchez	14	5.00	4	28.6%
HOU	Keuchel	19	6.1	16	84.2%
OAK	Overton	2	4.1	0	0.0%

I see two potential "rules" you could have used with yesterday's starter numbers and improved results.

1) Eliminate all overs where BOTH SPs went 6+ IIP 60% or more of the time. That would have gotten you to 4-2 (leaving the under play alone).

2) Eliminate all overs where EITHER SP went 6+ IPs 60% or more of the time. That would have eliminated all but the HOU/OAK game (and left the under alone) for a 2-0 day.

Time will tell if either of these is a viable filter (or if there is something better out there like adding innings). It also strikes me that this could be a useful tool in playing team totals. But there's no need to clutter up DD's thread any more with theories.

For anyone interested, I did the SPs for all of today's games. They are here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...it?usp=sharing

Thanks HG

I agree, one day does not give a good sample, but based on your analysis, the two top plays would be Mia/Philly over and Min/Det over. Is that how you see it?

[doubledime]

Good morning,

Tx/LAA just missed my reliever plays, but the relievers pitched 163 pitches combined yesterday. The only reason it missed the Reliever Plays is their 3 day inning count fell short. However, weather, trends and starters all lean over and I capped the game at 10.7 runs.

Therefore, since I feel this game could go up by tonight, I am releasing this Regular Play now:

TX/LAA over 9.5 -115

Good luck

[HeeluvaGuy]

Thanks HG

I agree, one day does not give a good sample, but based on your analysis, the two top plays would be Mia/Philly over and Min/Det over. Is that how you see it?

I definitely agree on MIN/DET (even though I'm still shocked at yesterday's one run game) and already have the play in at o10 +100 (nice over ump, btw). Urena is a bit of an X-factor in the other game. It's his first start of the year after being called up yesterday. He's a reliever, so he shouldn't be in a spot to go very deep today. But just to get some data points I looked at last season. He started 9 games, averaged 5.1 IP in his starts, and went 6+ innings only 4 times (44.4%).

So I guess that's a long way of saying, "Yes." But I would say the MIA/PHI game is a strong play with an asterisk. FWIW, I haven't played that one yet because I'm not sure I'm willing to pay -120 at o8 right now.

Best st of luck today!

[doubledime]

I definitely agree on MIN/DET (even though I'm still shocked at yesterday's one run game) and already have the play in at o10 +100 (nice over ump, btw). Urena is a bit of an X-factor in the other game. It's his first start of the year after being called up yesterday. He's a reliever, so he shouldn't be in a spot to go very deep today. But just to get some data points I looked at last season. He started 9 games, averaged 5.1 IP in his starts, and went 6+ innings only 4 times (44.4%).

So I guess that's a long way of saying, "Yes." But I would say the MIA/PHI game is a strong play with an asterisk. FWIW, I haven't played that one yet because I'm not sure I'm willing to pay -120 at o8 right now.

Best st of luck today!

I am always looking to play less plays with a higher winning %. This may be the ticket. Time will tell. Thanks again for the work and info.

[doubledime]

Good morning,

Tx/LAA just missed my reliever plays, but the relievers pitched 163 pitches combined yesterday. The only reason it missed the Reliever Plays is their 3 day inning count fell short. However, weather, trends and starters all lean over and I capped the game at 10.7 runs.

Therefore, since I feel this game could go up by tonight, I am releasing this Regular Play now:

TX/LAA over 9.5 -115

Good luck

FYI: This play also meets HeeluvaGuy's criteria of average innings pitched by the starter.

[doubledime]

One more metric on the TX/LAA game I forgot to mention:

• Over is 16-5-2 in Wegners last 23 games behind home plate.

[HeeluvaGuy]

I am always looking to play less plays with a higher winning %. This may be the ticket. Time will tell. Thanks again for the work and info.

Just trying to build off of the great foundation you've laid here. All we really need is to elminate one loss every day or two and the percentage on the reliever plays will be over 60%. Just gotta make sure we're not eliminating too many winners along the way.

I like that your reliever plays are completely logical. I think the SP innings approach is logical as well, so they should be a good match. Of course, there will always be outliers like yesterday's MIN/DET game.

[doubledime]

Just trying to build off of the great foundation you've laid here. All we really need is to elminate one loss every day or two and the percentage on the reliever plays will be over 60%. Just gotta make sure we're not eliminating too many winners along the way.

I like that your reliever plays are completely logical. I think the SP innings approach is logical as well, so they should be a good match. Of course, there will always be outliers like yesterday's MIN/DET game.

60%+....the holy grail

[HeeluvaGuy]

60%+....the holy grail

Yeah, but I overstated what we need. Eliminating one loss per week would get to 60%. That's pretty damn amazing.

[doubledime]

Good afternoon,

Adding two more Regular Plays for Monday:

Mets/Cubs under 7 -130 Going to the "well" one more time
Min/Det over 9.5 -110

Good luck

[doubledime]

Reasons:

Mets/Cubs: Good starters, fairly rested relievers, starters should go deep into game, wind blowing in from right, though 80 degrees temp will be dropping throughout the game and wind in from right, off the lake, should keep it acceptable, under ump, under trends and under ballpark.

Min/Det: Over in just about every metric except the ballpark leans just a bit to the under.

Good luck

[doubledime]

Good morning,

Yesterday:

Regular Plays: 2-1
YTD: 83-58 +17.80 units

Reliever Plays: 0-3-2
YTD 230-174

Back later with today's plays

Good luck

[HeeluvaGuy]

Here's the link to my SP info for today. Not sure if I'll have time to post the reliever plays in the thread today, but they're all in the link. After tonight's games I'll try to give records based on various filters. Best of luck today!

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/12bkNKFLtMqNByogacDdjMxdKiOgHG-U3kYAgoBy3dcY/edit?usp=sharing

[doubledime]

HG

I think you got yesterday's spreadsheet on that link, unless I am doing something wrong.

[HeeluvaGuy]

HG

I think you got yesterday's spreadsheet on that link, unless I am doing something wrong.

Try again. And if today's games don't pop up first, check the tab at the bottom for today's date. Sorry for the confusion.

[Mike Huntertz]

Here's the link to my SP info for today. Not sure if I'll have time to post the reliever plays in the thread today, but they're all in the link. After tonight's games I'll try to give records based on various filters. Best of luck today!

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...it?usp=sharing

Collaboration.....excellent

[doubledime]

Got it thanks

[RollinDo]

Going big on 2 Unders today..serious Under trends lately for all teams involved.

Minny-Detroit (U 9) -117
Miami -Philly (U 8) -105

[doubledime]

Based on HeeluvaGuy's data I see LAD/Was and Balt/NYY as the "Filtered Reliever Plays". HG feel free to comment.

[doubledime]

Going big on 2 Unders today..serious Under trends lately for all teams involved.

Minny-Detroit (U 9) -117
Miami -Philly (U 8) -105

Good luck RD

Watch out for that Miami/Philly game you have an over ump and over leaning weather.

[doubledime]

Good afternoon,

No Regular Plays for this afternoon

Back later with tonight's card.

Good luck

[doubledime]

Collaboration.....excellent

Thanks Mike. It works for me.

[HeeluvaGuy]

Based on HeeluvaGuy's data I see LAD/Pit and Balt/NYY as the "Filtered Reliever Plays". HG feel free to comment.

Did you post the reliever plays?

[doubledime]

Did you post the reliever plays?

No, will now though Thanks for reminding me.

[doubledime]

Good morning,

The reliever Plays for Wednesday:

Atl/Red over 8.5
Mia/Philly over 8
LAD/Wash over 9
Hou/Oak over 8
Balt/NYY over 9
TX/LAA over 8.5

Good luck

[HeeluvaGuy]

Based on HeeluvaGuy's data I see LAD/Pit and Balt/NYY as the "Filtered Reliever Plays". HG feel free to comment.

Yep. Looks like those are the ones using the most restrictive filter.

[doubledime]

FYI:

Rockies over just missed the Reliever Plays, and with the two starters both being under 6 average innings, this may be one to take a look at the over. Not official, just saying!

[HeeluvaGuy]

I hate hijacking your thread, but it's one of the few places on this site where decent discussion happens...

I like the over in the second SDP/STL game tonight. This was a reliever play yesterday. I'm assuming it dropped off because of the day off yesterday. Keep an eye on their reliever use this afternoon. Clemons doesn't go deep, and SD hits lefties very well. Could be worth a play.

[doubledime]

I hate hijacking your thread, but it's one of the few places on this site where decent discussion happens...

I like the over in the second SDP/STL game tonight. This was a reliever play yesterday. I'm assuming it dropped off because of the day off yesterday. Keep an eye on their reliever use this afternoon. Clemons doesn't go deep, and SD hits lefties very well. Could be worth a play.

First of all no need to think you are hijacking the thread. As Mike H said earlier today..."Collaboration.....excellent"

You are 100% correct on why the SD game missed the RPs. Also, I usually don't get involved in double headers, too many moving parts.

However, I like your reasoning and something I might touch if those relievers get some work this afternoon. Let me know your thoughts after the game this afternoon.

[HeeluvaGuy]

First of all no need to think you are hijacking the thread. As Mike H said earlier today..."Collaboration.....excellent"

You are 100% correct on why the SD game missed the RPs. Also, I usually don't get involved in double headers, too many moving parts.

However, I like your reasoning and something I might touch if those relievers get some work this afternoon. Let me know your thoughts after the game this afternoon.

Both teams protected their pens pretty well, so I wouldn't recommend playing it based solely on the bullpen status.

[doubledime]

Both teams protected their pens pretty well, so I wouldn't recommend playing it based solely on the bullpen status.

thanks