***** Totals and Sides *****

[Mike Huntertz]

Good morning,

We want to get this up early, even though it's a late game. We think the line will go up.

SD/AZ over 9.5 -110

We may be back later with more.

Good luck

We're HOME!

[doubledime]

We're HOME!

[doubledime]

Good morning,

Yesterday:

Regular Plays: 1-0
YTD: 78-55 +18.70 units

Reliever Plays: 5-3
YTD 216-150

Back later with today's play(s)

[jrjay93]

Nice to wake up to a nice win

[doubledime]

Good morning,

Being days before the Break, most of these guys are looking forward to short vacation, so this is always a consideration when handicapping. I may have a Regular Play if a game hits my criteria on ALL "cylinders", but I won't know that until I do a little more digging.

In the meantime here are the Reliever Plays for Thursday.

Pit/Cards over 8
SD/LAD over 7
LAA/TB over 9
Oak/Hou over 8
Seat/KC over 8
Atl/Cub over (no line yet)

Good luck

[1Time!]

Aren't there a couple more days of play before the break?

[doubledime]

Aren't there a couple more days of play before the break?

After this weekend series, but I feel it does affect the teams around this time.

[doubledime]

Good morning,

There is no Regular Play on the afternoon card.

Back later with the Regular Plays, if any, for tonight's card

Good luck

[doubledime]

Just some thoughts on the Pit/Cards game:

One reason this was not also a Regular over play is that there is no history on Glasnow, the Pit starter. If the Cards get to him early and have to rely on their BP, look for the game to go over. The problem is one just can't predict how a new pitcher without any history will do. One metric I use is the average pitch count of a starter which helps me predict how soon the BP should enter a game. I don't have that stat with Glasnow. Both the weather and trends lean to the over........

Just saying........

Good luck

[HeeluvaGuy]

DD - Ley me start by saying that I hope you don't mind me doing this, and if you'd prefer, I'm happy to move it to another thread or offline. Just let me know...

I love your reliever play idea. It's logical, and more importantly, is producing logical results. That said, 8 plays per day makes me itch. I also think there's a potential hole in the reliever plays that we might be able to close with minimal effort. The hole I'm referring to is starting pitching. As I've posted before, a taxed bullpen is only helpful if the other team can get to the pen.

So I am going to track the reliever plays with a starting pitcher innings-per-start filter. I have arbitrarily chosen 6 innings per start as my filter. Games where both SPs are averaging under 6 innings per start will get 2 stars, games where only one SP is averaging less than 6 innings will get 1 star, and games where both pitchers are averaging 6+ innings per start won't get any stars.

Here's what today's plays look like:

Pit/Cards over 8 * (note: PIT's starter is making his first start)
SD/LAD over 7 (Ryu's 1st start, but career over 6 IP/start; Pomeranz over 6 IP/start this year)
LAA/TB over 9 **
Oak/Hou over 8 *
Seat/KC over 8 **
Atl/Cub over (no line yet) *

I should note that I'm not crazy about using average innings per start because that can get easily skewed. But that's all I had time for today. I have some other ideas if this doesn't work. Best of luck to all today!

[doubledime]

DD - Ley me start by saying that I hope you don't mind me doing this, and if you'd prefer, I'm happy to move it to another thread or offline. Just let me know...

I love your reliever play idea. It's logical, and more importantly, is producing logical results. That said, 8 plays per day makes me itch. I also think there's a potential hole in the reliever plays that we might be able to close with minimal effort. The hole I'm referring to is starting pitching. As I've posted before, a taxed bullpen is only helpful if the other team can get to the pen.

So I am going to track the reliever plays with a starting pitcher innings-per-start filter. I have arbitrarily chosen 6 innings per start as my filter. Games where both SPs are averaging under 6 innings per start will get 2 stars, games where only one SP is averaging less than 6 innings will get 1 star, and games where both pitchers are averaging 6+ innings per start won't get any stars.

Here's what today's plays look like:

Pit/Cards over 8 * (note: PIT's starter is making his first start)
SD/LAD over 7 (Ryu's 1st start, but career over 6 IP/start; Pomeranz over 6 IP/start this year)
LAA/TB over 9 **
Oak/Hou over 8 *
Seat/KC over 8 **
Atl/Cub over (no line yet) *

I should note that I'm not crazy about using average innings per start because that can get easily skewed. But that's all I had time for today. I have some other ideas if this doesn't work. Best of luck to all today!

HG, it's all about winning. I agree, 8-9 plays a day is something I never liked doing. One bad day can really hurt.

Feel free to add your filter and post it here. If that brings the number of plays down and winning % up, everyone wins, except the books.

Welcome aboard!

[Mike Huntertz]

DD - Ley me start by saying that I hope you don't mind me doing this, and if you'd prefer, I'm happy to move it to another thread or offline. Just let me know...

I love your reliever play idea. It's logical, and more importantly, is producing logical results. That said, 8 plays per day makes me itch. I also think there's a potential hole in the reliever plays that we might be able to close with minimal effort. The hole I'm referring to is starting pitching. As I've posted before, a taxed bullpen is only helpful if the other team can get to the pen.

So I am going to track the reliever plays with a starting pitcher innings-per-start filter. I have arbitrarily chosen 6 innings per start as my filter. Games where both SPs are averaging under 6 innings per start will get 2 stars, games where only one SP is averaging less than 6 innings will get 1 star, and games where both pitchers are averaging 6+ innings per start won't get any stars.

Here's what today's plays look like:

Pit/Cards over 8 * (note: PIT's starter is making his first start)
SD/LAD over 7 (Ryu's 1st start, but career over 6 IP/start; Pomeranz over 6 IP/start this year)
LAA/TB over 9 **
Oak/Hou over 8 *
Seat/KC over 8 **
Atl/Cub over (no line yet) *

I should note that I'm not crazy about using average innings per start because that can get easily skewed. But that's all I had time for today. I have some other ideas if this doesn't work. Best of luck to all today!

Looks like it may help.
Nice work.
I've been jumping in mid game when pitch count is up and score is low.
Doing pretty well(7-3) but few opportunities and a lot of work

[HeeluvaGuy]

Looks like it may help.
Nice work.
I've been jumping in mid game when pitch count is up and score is low.
Doing pretty well(7-3) but few opportunities and a lot of work

Unfortunately, the starters in the early game went 6 and 7 innings. Once they left, the teams scored 4 of the game's 6 runs.

And youre right about about jumping in live. I gots o5.5 at +105 to squeak out a tiny profit on that one. That approach is just more labor intensive.

[doubledime]

Looks like it may help.
Nice work.
I've been jumping in mid game when pitch count is up and score is low.
Doing pretty well(7-3) but few opportunities and a lot of work

Great idea, I never thought of that. Where is the best site to get the real time pitch count?

[doubledime]

Unfortunately, the starters in the early game went 6 and 7 innings. Once they left, the teams scored 4 of the game's 6 runs.

And youre right about about jumping in live. I gots o5.5 at +105 to squeak out a tiny profit on that one. That approach is just more labor intensive.

Glad you made a touch on it. I noticed the innings, but saw it in the boxscore after the game.

[HeeluvaGuy]

Great idea, I never thought of that. Where is the best site to get the real time pitch count?

MLB.com has them. I think the ESPN apps/sites does too.

[doubledime]

MLB.com has them. I think the ESPN apps/sites does too.

Thanks

[doubledime]

No Regular Plays for Thursday

Good luck

[doubledime]

Good morning,

Yesterday confirmed my fears that I mentioned, about the time right before the All Star break. Only 2 games on the entire schedule went over. I am glad I did not have any Regular Plays, but I am disappointed in the Reliever Plays. For these next 3 days I am raising the qualifications of the Reliever Plays, so look for fewer plays.

Yesterday:

Regular Plays: 1-0
YTD: 78-55 +18.70 units

Reliever Plays: 0-6
YTD 216-156

Back later with today's play(s)

[doubledime]

Good morning,

Friday's Reliever Play:

Min/TX over 9

Good luck

[Trivial]

Good Morning doubledime... Just wondering where you see over 9 - when I see everywhere at 9.5 where it opened at.

Thanks so much and great work !

[doubledime]

Good Morning doubledime... Just wondering where you see over 9 - when I see everywhere at 9.5 where it opened at.

Thanks so much and great work !

When I post a total, as in this game, I was able to buy the 1/2 run and lay only -123. I try to keep the reliever plays at an average of -113 to -114. To me the difference between 9.5 and 9 is important, and not as important between 9 and 8.5. Most of the time on Reliever Plays I am not buying the 1/2, but occasionally I do, if I feel it needs to be bought.

[Trivial]

When I post a total, as in this game, I was able to buy the 1/2 run and lay only -123. I try to keep the reliever plays at an average of -113 to -114. To me the difference between 9.5 and 9 is important, and not as important between 9 and 8.5. Most of the time on Reliever Plays I am not buying the 1/2, but occasionally I do, if I feel it needs to be bought.

Thanks so much for the explanation. My book doesn't allow buying 1/2 a point. Time to switch books.

[Mike Huntertz]

Thanks so much for the explanation. My book doesn't allow buying 1/2 a point. Time to switch books.

Buying 1/2 run is tricky business and very controversial.
20% juice makes it an expensive proposition.
Buyer beware!

[doubledime]

Buying 1/2 run is tricky business and very controversial.
20% juice makes it an expensive proposition.
Buyer beware!

Normally I would agree, and normally, I don't buy in any sport. However, in baseball totals, it depends, IMHO, on the the number you're buying at. I am confident that I will win 1 out 4 plays that I buy the 1/2. It could be a little psychological also, that I hate losing by a 1/2. but don't mind, as much, pushing by 1/2.

[doubledime]

Good afternoon,

The Regular Play for Friday:

Det/Tor over 10 -120

Good luck

[doubledime]

Good morning,

Yesterday:

Regular Plays: 0-1
YTD: 78-55 +17.50 units

Reliever Plays: 1-0
YTD 217-156

Back later with today's play(s)

[doubledime]

Good morning,

Saturday's Reliever Plays:

Cubs/Pit over 8
Wash/Mets over 7.5
SD/LAD over 8
LAA/Balt over 10
Min/TX over 10.5

Back later with the Regular Plays

Good luck

[doubledime]

Good morning,

The Regular Play for Saturday afternoon:

LAA/Balt over 10 -115

Good luck

[doubledime]

Good afternoon,

Saturday Night's Regular Plays:

SD/LAD over 8 -115
Min/TX over 10.5 -110

Good luck

[doubledime]

Good morning,

Yesterday:

Regular Plays: 1-2
YTD: 78-55 +16.20 units

Reliever Plays: 2-3
YTD 219-159

Back later with today's play(s)

[doubledime]

Good morning,

The last game before the break and it's a time to be careful, IMHO.

I will still give out the Reliever Plays, since they are just based on data from the relief staffs, but will be very careful today.

The Reliver Plays for Sunday:

Cubs/Pit over 8.5
Cards/Mil over 8.5
SD/LAD over 8
Det/Tor over 10.5
NYY/Clev over 7.5
LAA/Balt over 10
Min/TX over 10

Good luck

[doubledime]

Good morning,

Since it's the day before the break, I won't be posting any Regular Plays. However if this were any other day of the season, I would have posted the following Regular Plays, but these are only FYI and are NOT going toward the YTD totals:

Cubs/Pit over 8.5
LAA/Balt over 10
Min/TX over 10

We'll see at the end of the day if I was too careful or "should a, could a, would a"

I am taking this time off to review the first half and will be posting some comments on that later.

Good luck

[Mike Huntertz]

I'm looking forward to the break to recharge.
Nice 1st half dd

No bet is NEVER a bad play

[doubledime]

I'm looking forward to the break to recharge.
Nice 1st half dd

No bet is NEVER a bad play

Thanks Mike I, too am looking to recharge a bit, and we think alike on the "no play" scenario.