***** Totals and Sides *****

[doubledime]

Good morning,

Yesterday:

Regular Plays: no plays
YTD: 78-55 +16.20 units

Reliever Plays: 3-4
YTD 222-163

Back later with comments on the first half of the season.

Good luck

[doubledime]

Good afternoon,

The season is 1/2 over and here are the numbers:

Total Plays (Reliever and Regular): 518

Total Wins: 300

Win Percentage: 57.9%

Total Combined Units Won (Based on Reliever Plays Average Vig = -113.5) +57 units

[doubledime]

Good evening,

First off my goal is always to improve my winning percentage. To that end, if anyone has a suggestion, feel free to share it.

HeeluvaGuy for example, suggested in a post to take into consideration the number of innings, on average, a starter will pitch. The less innings the greater the impact of the relief staff will have on the game. I was using the average pitches of a starter, but innings are important also.

For the first half of the season I have looked at how many innings and pitches the relievers have thrown the previous day and the last 3 days. Starting after the break, I will also look at the last 2 days, time permitting. I think this will just be a further filter in making a decision.

I am still going back to see what other filters I can apply, but I keep thinking of the phrase...."if it aint broken don't fix it"

Thanks everyone for your support.

Good luck DD

[matt711]

Wish I followed sooner

[HeeluvaGuy]

Great first half buddy. I'm gonna try to take a look back at those innings while there's some down time. But, yeah, nothing's broke here!

[doubledime]

Wish I followed sooner

Thank you Matt, appreciate it.

[doubledime]

Great first half buddy. I'm gonna try to take a look back at those innings while there's some down time. But, yeah, nothing's broke here!

Thanks HG I think over the long run, the average innings pitched by the starter will pay off.

[doubledime]

Good morning,

Since we look at the last 1, 2 and 3 days of a relief staff's work, we will not be posting any Reliever Plays for Friday and Saturday. There is a possibility that on Sunday we may have some Reliever Plays. For the first series the Regular Plays will be minimal also. If something aligns perfectly, we'll post it as a Regular Play.

Good luck

[Mike Huntertz]

Good morning,

Since we look at the last 1, 2 and 3 days of a relief staff's work, we will not be posting any Reliever Plays for Friday and Saturday. There is a possibility that on Sunday we may have some Reliever Plays. For the first series the Regular Plays will be minimal also. If something aligns perfectly, we'll post it as a Regular Play.

Good luck

Take the 3 days off......work on Monday.

Props to a great 1st half.

[jontebond]

Excellent first half. Good job!

[doubledime]

Excellent first half. Good job!

Thanks jb

[doubledime]

Good afternoon,

No plays for Friday

Good luck

[doubledime]

Good morning,

I know I had mentioned that I will not have any Reliever Plays until after the first series is over, however I changed my mind since many relief staffs were used quite a bit yesterday. Based on just one day of work, plus all the other relief metrics I use, I have the following Reliever's Plays for Saturday:

Milw/Reds over 9
Col/Atl over 8
LAD/AZ over 9.5
Tor/Oak over 8.5
Bost/NYY over 9.5


Good luck

[doubledime]

Good morning,

The Regular Play for Saturday afternoon:

Bost/NYY over 9.5 -115

Back later with tonight's card

Good luck

[doubledime]

Some reasons:

Davis (ump) 6-1 to the over the last 7 games
Weather slightly favors over (out to left 9 mph, air index 62, 88 degrees)
Trends lean over
Ballpark leans over
Relievers (threw 109 pitches yesterday)
Starters high ERA anf WHIP
I capped the game at 10.8 runs

Good luck

[Mike Huntertz]

Some reasons:

Davis (ump) 6-1 to the over the last 7 games
Weather slightly favors over (out to left 9 mph, air index 62, 88 degrees)
Trends lean over
Ballpark leans over
Relievers (threw 109 pitches yesterday)
Starters high ERA anf WHIP
I capped the game at 10.8 runs

Good luck

Good stuff, but I'm always wary with NNY pen (it is so strong) GL

[doubledime]

Good stuff, but I'm always wary with NNY pen (it is so strong) GL

Good point, yes, their closers are above average, but their bullpen's ERA is 3.72 which is about average. They used 4 relievers yesterday and they threw 74 pitches. I am hoping we are home free by about the 7th inning and don't have to worry about their closers.

[doubledime]

Good afternoon,

The Saturday evening Regular Play:

Mil/Reds over 9 -115

For just about all the same reasons as the afternoon play except I capped the game at 9.9 runs.

Good luck

[doubledime]

Good morning,

Good morning,

Yesterday:

Regular Plays: 1-1
YTD: 79-56 +16.05 units

Reliever Plays: 2-3
YTD 224-166

Back later with today's plays

Good luck

[doubledime]

Good morning,

Sunday Reliever Plays:

Mil/Reds over 9
LAD/AZ over 8.5
Clev/Min over 9
WS/LAA under (no line yet)

Good luck

[doubledime]

Good morning,

One Regular Play for Sunday:

Clev/Min over 9 -115

good luck

[doubledime]

Good morning,

Yesterday:

Regular Plays: 0-1
YTD: 79-57 +14.90 units

Reliever Plays: 2-2
YTD 226-168

Back later with today's plays

Good luck

[doubledime]

Good morning,

Monday Reliever Plays:

Mia/Philly over 7
Atl/Reds over 9
Mets/Cubs under (no line yet)
SD/Cards over 8
Balt/NYY over 9
Min/Det over 9.5
Hou/Oak over 8.5

Good luck

[doubledime]

FYI:

The unders were 29-13-3 over the weekend. Just saying......... more importantly, will be noting.

Good luck

[HeeluvaGuy]

I wasn't able to do any kind of lookback on the starters' innings pitched, and I didn't watch a single minute of baseball over the weekend. But I did put together a chart for the SPs. I hope this pastes nicely and is easy to understand:

Team	Pitcher	GS	Avg IP/GS	GS 6+ IP	% GS 6+IP
MIA	Fernandez	17	6.1	13	76.5%
PHI	Nola	17	5.2	11	64.7%
ATL	Wisler	17	6.1	13	76.5%
CIN	Finnegan	18	5.2	10	55.6%
NYM	Matz	16	6	11	68.8%
CHC	Lester	18	6.1	14	77.8%
SDP	Fiedrich	11	5.2	5	45.5%
STL	Leake	18	6.1	14	77.8%
BAL	Gausman	15	5.2	9	60.0%
NYY	Nova	12	5.3	5	41.7%
MIN	Nolasco	18	6	12	66.7%
DET	Boyd	6	4.20	1	16.7%
HOU	Fiers	16	5.2	7	43.8%
OAK	Graveman	17	5.2	8	47.1%

I think this is pretty self-explanatory, but just in case... The first column of numbers is the number of games started by today's starting pitchers for today's "Reliever Plays." The second column is the average number of innings pitched per start by today's pitchers. The next is the number of games started where today's pitchers have gone 6+ innings this season. The final column is the percentage of games that today's pitchers go 6+ innings.

I don't have any magic numbers for use here (yet?), but just eyballing these numbers, it would seem that we could get to the relievers quickest in the BAL/NYY, MIN/DET, and HOU/OAK games. These numbers would also seem to support the under in the NYM/CHC game.

[doubledime]

Thanks HG

I think this can be very helpful. After a week or so we can begin to establish some "magic" numbers. I am thinking along the line of adding the two in column 3 together, and if they add up to above "X" or below "Y" it may determine a weaker or stronger play. I will be watching. We just have to determine what X and Y are going to be. (I hope that makes sense.)

If you can, please let me know WS/Seat numbers.

Thanks, DD

[RollinDo]

FYI:

The unders were 29-13-3 over the weekend. Just saying......... more importantly, will be noting.

Good luck

Yeah, what's bad is that I passed on so many easy Under hits.

I went 3-3 last week, which isn't good considering all the game results.

[HeeluvaGuy]

Here are the numbers for WS/SEA (mobile so I don't have my chart):

Sale 18 GS, 7 IP average, 15 GS 6+IP, 83% GS 6+IP
Leblanc 3 GS, 5 IP average, 2 GS 6+ IP, 67%

I'll do some tracking of these to see if average IP is a better indicator than % of games at 6 IP or more.

[doubledime]

Here are the numbers for WS/SEA (mobile so I don't have my chart):

Sale 18 GS, 7 IP average, 15 GS 6+IP, 83% GS 6+IP
Leblanc 3 GS, 5 IP average, 2 GS 6+ IP, 67%

I'll do some tracking of these to see if average IP is a better indicator than % of games at 6 IP or more.

Thanks

We could probably use this to pick sides also, but I'm not that good on baseball sides, but I will try, time permitting, to at least track some sides based on average innings pitched and relievers. For example, tonight I would take the White Sox, if I were to play a side.

[HeeluvaGuy]

Thanks

We could probably use this to pick sides also, but I'm not that good on baseball sides, but I will try, time permitting, to at least track some sides based on average innings pitched and relievers. For example, tonight I would take the White Sox, if I were to play a side.

Yeah, I was thinking this could be a useful angle in picking sides, but we don't really have any data on sides and your reliever plays. Based on what we have, though, my thought was MIN +131.

Anyway, I'm playing the HOU/OAK o8.5 +100. Might throw some betpoints at a few others. Best of luck tonight!

[doubledime]

The only problem with Min is their relief staff threw 56 pitches yesterday and Det only 14. I will try the next week or so to see if there is any correlation between the relievers and the average innings pitched by the starter that helps handicap a side.

[doubledime]

Good afternoon,

The Regular Plays for Monday:

Atl/Reds over 9 - even
Mets/Cubs under 7.5 -120

Good luck

[Mike Huntertz]

GL
looks good

[doubledime]

GL
looks good

Thanks Mike looks even better now

[doubledime]

Good morning,

Yesterday:

Regular Plays: 2-0
YTD: 81-57 +16.90 units

Reliever Plays: 4-3
YTD 230-171

Back later with today's plays

Good luck