New Baseball Power Rating System

[Formulawiz]

Maybe I'm not understanding correctly. I see one PR system described at this link:

http://www.sportrends.com/team_pr_mlb.htm

It does say: if both pitching and team criteria above are met the team is considered for a one unit play. If just the pitching criteria is met the team is considered for a 1/2 unit play.

Is that being treated as two different systems because of bet difference??
One system just pitchers = PR
One system pitchers + bullpen = Team PR - Is this the one you need tracked??

I also still see a discrepancy in what you posted....and what is posted at the Sportrend site. You said higher is stronger....site says lower is stronger....

I'm not asking about the formulas. I understand those are proprietary.
I do intend on tracking the second half using several different methods and will happily share my results.
Thanks again.

I just went back to sportrends website and read their description very carefully. My interpretation is that in both systems if the bullpen or pitcher's PR's are lower then its better. I think whats confusing you is the wording 20 points or 100 points or more, LOWER. Its the word LOWER thats is important. I think you are confusing yourself. Yes I agree sportrends could have used better english. In the final analysis, if the pitcher and bullpen have a lower PR value then they are considered to be better.

Secondly the statement you are referring to which brought on confusion in this thread is when sportrends first posted their original description over a month ago in which there was an error with their writeup. That was already cleared up over a month ago. Now lets move on.

[ButtoMcFarty]

I know that for pitcher PR, which I use the lower is the better... they changed their system like 4 weeks ago or so b4 it was higher was better... now its for lower the better for pitchers which I follow...

GL

btw you should have your pw like 6 hours max. after you paid... normal business hours of course...

Got it.
Thanks

[peterpan19]

todays PR plays:
SEA, MIL, PHI, LAA, COL.... dont bet anything over -130
filtered plays: SEA, MIL, LAA, PHI, COL

GL today guys...

[ButtoMcFarty]

I got the same for PR picks.

Got the following for Team Power Picks:
NYM, COL, LAD, SEA, LAA, PHI

Note that COL, SEA, LAA, PHI were both PR and TP picks.

This is what the Sportrend website says about that:

If both pitching and team criteria above are met the team is considered for a one unit play. If just the pitching criteria is met the team is considered for a 1/2 unit play.

GL

[Formulawiz]

I got the same for PR picks.

Got the following for Team Power Picks:
NYM, COL, LAD, SEA, LAA, PHI

Note that COL, SEA, LAA, PHI were both PR and TP picks.

This is what the Sportrend website says about that:

If both pitching and team criteria above are met the team is considered for a one unit play. If just the pitching criteria is met the team is considered for a 1/2 unit play.

GL

I assume your keeping the records for the Team Power picks. Make sure when you post your games all the filters are in place so there is no confusion.

[peterpan19]

filtered PR went 4-1 +3.25 units... nice start after the allstar break (using my unit system you would have won 8.5 units)

todays plays later...

[peterpan19]

PR: CLE, PIT, KC, BAL, ARZ, SD
filtered plays: BAL

GL

[ButtoMcFarty]

filtered PR went 4-1 +3.25 units... nice start after the allstar break (using my unit system you would have won 8.5 units)

todays plays later...

TP today: WAS, PIT, CIN, ARI, SD, HOU, CLE, KC, BAL
filtered: WAS, CIN

Here are some other unfiltered results from yesterday:
BB 2-1
FB (30) 4-2
FB (99) 5-2
PT (60) 1-1
PT (45) 2-1

[ButtoMcFarty]

...

[Formulawiz]

TP today: WAS, PIT, CIN, ARI, SD, HOU, CLE, KC, BAL
filtered: WAS, CIN

Here are some other unfiltered results from yesterday:
BB 2-1
FB (30) 4-2
FB (99) 5-2
PT (60) 1-1
PT (45) 2-1

WAS would not have been a filtered play for 2 reasons. 2 game losing streak and its WAS.

[peterpan19]

and WAS is under .450 win% ... pretty good filter I think...

filtered went 0-1 and unfiltered went 1-5

todays plays in a few minutes

YTD PR (unfiltered):148-186 -5.21 units (after the break 5-6 -0.35u)
YTD PR (filtered): 42-40 +8.69u (after the break 4-2 +2.25u)

[peterpan19]

todays plays: ATL, OAK, CLE; TB, MIL, PHI; STL, TX, HOU
filtered plays: ATL, TB, MIL PHI, STL, HOU

GL

[ButtoMcFarty]

Good catch on WAS...I knew that too...


Yeah...miserable day for the PRs yesterday...software had a better day....particularly the PT picks.
All unfiltered:
FB30 6-3
BB 2-1
FB99 9-6
PT45 4-1
PT60 4-1

Cheers

[Formulawiz]

Sportrends TPR System

Has anyone been following sportrends Team Projec Run System. Well I have been following it for over a week now. Everyday it picks 4 to 5 games in which the win/loss record goes 3-1 or 4-1. It never has more then 1 loser every night and there were 2 nights where it actually swept all the plays. I apply the same filters.

[peterpan19]

filtered went 2-3 -1.0u

todays plays:
PR: CLE, BOS, BAL, NYY, KC, ARZ, OAK, HOU, NYM
filtered PR: BOS, NYY, HOU, NYM

GL

[Cannaloop]

Has anyone been following sportrends Team Projec Run System. Well I have been following it for over a week now. Everyday it picks 4 to 5 games in which the win/loss record goes 3-1 or 4-1. It never has more then 1 loser every night and there were 2 nights where it actually swept all the plays. I apply the same filters.

Sounds interesting, where can I read more about it?

[peterpan19]

cannaloop
its on their website under team stats...

[EXhoosier10]

Been doin some research with the Pythagorem Theorem System on Fastball and I noticed a pretty interesting trend involving teams that have a 90%+ chance of covering (using the previous 30 days). If you fade those picks, without any filters, I have a record of 18-13 and up +14.63 units.

I started it May 15, about a month after baseball started as Sportrends recommends for their software. So for those of you with the software, could be an interesting situation to follow.

If someone wants to double check, that would be great, but I'm pretty sure that is the right info.

[Formulawiz]

Did anyone use Sportrends TPR system as I mentioned this morning. It went 3-1 again. Not a losing night in over 1 1/2 weeks.

[EXhoosier10]

Somehow I missed that post this morning. Will definitely give it a go tomorrow. Do you know when the stats update? Fastball usually is at 8 or 9am CT and even that's too late to use for the 6:05 games because of work.

[DJJimGreen]

Hmmm.. I went to download the software and it looks like it won't work on a 64 bit system? I'm running windows 7 and it's not installing for me.

[peterpan19]

Did anyone use Sportrends TPR system as I mentioned this morning. It went 3-1 again. Not a losing night in over 1 1/2 weeks.

so which games did you have ?

according to their website...all values over 1 indicate a play on the home team... values under 1 indicate a play on the road team... using that you would have had plays on 14 games yesterday....now applying the same filters that I use for PR (streaks, no play on teams under .450, no play on games -130 or worse)... I stil would have had 7 plays (TOR, SEA, MIL, LAA, HOU, NYM, MIN) and would have only went 3-4... now the only way I see a 3-1 night is when you only play the home team when the line is over 1 and only the road team when the line is -1 or under ... plays would have been on TOR, WAS, TB and LAA... going 3-1 (actually 3-0, never would have put my money on WAS, or did you count PIT as a play ?)... so did you do that formula ? ....bc other than that I dont see how you only ended up with 3 plays...

ok...

PR went 1-7 -5.75u...filtered went 0-3 -3.00u

so for the first half after the allstar break the PR is 8-19 -10.40u and the filtered is 6-8 -1.75u ... so no very good so far...

mondays plays later

GL

[Formulawiz]

so which games did you have ?

according to their website...all values over 1 indicate a play on the home team... values under 1 indicate a play on the road team... using that you would have had plays on 14 games yesterday....now applying the same filters that I use for PR (streaks, no play on teams under .450, no play on games -130 or worse)... I stil would have had 7 plays (TOR, SEA, MIL, LAA, HOU, NYM, MIN) and would have only went 3-4... now the only way I see a 3-1 night is when you only play the home team when the line is over 1 and only the road team when the line is -1 or under ... plays would have been on TOR, WAS, TB and LAA... going 3-1 (actually 3-0, never would have put my money on WAS, or did you count PIT as a play ?)... so did you do that formula ? ....bc other than that I dont see how you only ended up with 3 plays...

ok...

PR went 1-7 -5.75u...filtered went 0-3 -3.00u

so for the first half after the allstar break the PR is 8-19 -10.40u and the filtered is 6-8 -1.75u ... so no very good so far...

mondays plays later

GL

Pete, Here are the plays using the TPR system yesterday and using my filters. Based on the the values posted on the sportrends website they are PIT, TOR, TB and LAA, it went 3-1. Its been doing it every day for over a week and a half. There is no way I would play WAS. Let me take that back, I would play WAS as a large dog of over 240 or more if the conditions are just right for me. By the way the BB and PT are both doing nicely.

[Cannaloop]

Three plays today using TPR?

[ButtoMcFarty]

Unfiltered results from yesterday:
Team Power 3-7
FB30 8-4
FB99 9-3
BB 4-2
PT45 6-2
PT60 4-3

Cumulative from AllStar Break
Team Power 12-22
FB30 22-13
FB99 31-15
BB 9-5
PT45 14-7
PT60 11-9

The FB software is doing well so far....far outpicking the Power Rating system...
It's been striking to me how the PowerRatings often read nearly opposite the FB software picks

[Formulawiz]

Three plays today using TPR?

There are only 2 plays LAA and MIN. FLA 3 game losing streak and new pitcher and NYY ML too hi.

[Cannaloop]

There are only 2 plays LAA and MIN. FLA 3 game losing streak and new pitcher and NYY ML too hi.

Aahh forgot about the line filter.

[peterpan19]

cannaloop
I see LAA and MIN as plays only (NYY...line too high, FL... 3 game loosgin streak...no play, but I think they should win here today...)...didnt see the posts b4... never mind

PR and filtered plays (all the same today): TX, TB, ARZ, MIN ....

GL

[ButtoMcFarty]

Pete,

I think it should be -1 on the TPR also....only thing that makes sense.

While I'm impressed with the FB software in nearly all aspects...the typos/confusion for data posted on the web site is disconcerting. First the confusion/change on power ranking data usage...now the confusion on this ....both typos/errors that are at the heart of the decision process. Funny that huh?

Regardless, the FB software is impressive....especially given the reasonable cost. Fairly easy to use and flexible. The documentation comes up short...but anyone who is interested in this stuff probably wouldn't read it anyway.

[Formulawiz]

Pete,

I think it should be -1 on the TPR also....only thing that makes sense.

While I'm impressed with the FB software in nearly all aspects...the typos/confusion for data posted on the web site is disconcerting. First the confusion/change on power ranking data usage...now the confusion on this ....both typos/errors that are at the heart of the decision process. Funny that huh?

Regardless, the FB software is impressive....especially given the reasonable cost. Fairly easy to use and flexible. The documentation comes up short...but anyone who is interested in this stuff probably wouldn't read it anyway.

I am not sure what typos you are talking about and what confusion.

[madness]

I see the confusion as well as it says "play on the home team is generated when the value is over 1" that part is clear, but then it goes on to say "play on the opposing team is warranted when the home team value is under 1". This can be translated as .9 or lower is a play on the opposing team rather than -1 or lower. It also says to play dogs only, but it looks like your research shows it to have nice potential following the regular guidelines outlined many times in this thread. Long story short, i am going to follow the way i believe you are using over for home and over -1 for road team.

[Formulawiz]

I see the confusion as well as it says "play on the home team is generated when the value is over 1" that part is clear, but then it goes on to say "play on the opposing team is warranted when the home team value is under 1". This can be translated as .9 or lower is a play on the opposing team rather than -1 or lower. It also says to play dogs only, but it looks like your research shows it to have nice potential following the regular guidelines outlined many times in this thread. Long story short, i am going to follow the way i believe you are using over for home and over -1 for road team.

The way I interpret the writeup is as follows. If the value is 1 or greater then the play is on the home team, if the value is -1 or greater then the play is on the opponent. As far as only playing dogs I have looked at all plays using my filters and the system has generated many wins with very few losses. Thats the beauty of all these systems they can be played the way you feel most confident with.

[EXhoosier10]

PT and FB plays

For the plays that fit the criteria of both PT and FB (and have lines -135 and better (towards EVEN), there is a success rate of about 56% through 131 occurrences from May 15 until today.

Today we had plays of Pit, Phi, Atl, Laa, and Min with LAA being canceled. By the end of the night (barring a Min meltdown), it will have gone 4-0 and push its record to


74/131
for a profit of 11.17 units (assuming a 1 unit bet on all games) with lines -135 and better and for all games ignoring lines, it would be

178/289
for a profit of 18.03 units (again, assuming a 1 unit bet on all games).


Assuming this can keep up it's pace of 56% and 62% respectively, we should be able to get our $50 back quite easily.

[peterpan19]

Assuming this can keep up it's pace of 56% and 62% respectively, we should be able to get our $50 back quite easily.

I already got my money back...believe me...

and MIN really collapsed today...I will play them on tuesday...no matter what...

[Formulawiz]

I already got my money back...believe me...

and MIN really collapsed today...I will play them on tuesday...no matter what...

I know it was a hard loss to swallow for the BB system but be careful MIN is on a 2 game losing streak.