Blue Jays and Marlins proving profitable
Blue Jays and Marlins proving profitable
So what do we know with two of the 26 weeks on the MLB schedule behind us? Though it's still way too early to draw a lot of conclusions, some trends are difficult to ignore, starting in New York where Chien-Ming Wang and the Yankees are off to a money-burning start for their backers. Fans and bettors following the Toronto Blue Jays and red-hot Florida Marlins are all smiles, as are those betting the Over.
Strange things are happening.
The first few weeks of the MLB season are usually pretty chaotic – teams that were expected to storm out of the gate stumble instead, while others with lower expectations make a big splash. The standings in April should always be taken with as many grains of salt as possible.
But you can’t blame this all on small sample size. Some of these underperforming teams are going to go on to have disappointing campaigns. Others will continue to overcome the betting odds and make a strong run for the playoffs.
The New York Yankees (7-6, minus-2.02 units) haven’t been quite the alpha team many were expecting after they added C.C. Sabathia, A.J. Burnett, Mark Teixeira and Nick Swisher. Teixeira (1.3 VORP) has yet to make an impact, Xavier Nady (0.3 VORP) is apparently gone for the year after his elbow gave out on a throw from the outfield, and Chien-Ming Wang (-18.4 VORP) is all sorts of wrong after three consecutive awful starts.
The Yanks desperately need Alex Rodriguez (hip) back in the lineup with Cody Ransom (-4.4 VORP) hitting a .190 OBP in his place. But mostly it’s about the pitching right now; New York is No. 28 in the majors with a 6.53 ERA, and the over is along for the ride at 9-4. The new stadium appears to be more hitter-friendly, as well, with a park factor of 1.355 through Sunday – although that could again be more attributable to New York’s awful pitching.
The news isn’t any better out of Boston, where the Red Sox (6-6, minus-2.38 units) have the over at 8-3-1. Their pitching (4.76 ERA) has been less than advertised at No. 17 in the nation; Daisuke Matsuzaka (-4.1 VORP) is out indefinitely with inflammation in his arm, while Brad Penny (-4.1 VORP) and Jon Lester (-3.0 VORP) haven’t clicked on the mound yet. And the early returns from David Ortiz (-4.6 VORP) aren’t promising: 8-for-47 with zero home runs.
The biggest money team in the American League can also be found in the East: the Toronto Blue Jays (10-4, plus-6.26 units). Their big bats have the over at 8-6, leading off with the highly unlikely Marco Scutaro (9.9 VORP). This might not last, but there’s talent in Toronto and an opportunity to advance while New York, Boston and Tampa Bay (5-8, minus-3.93 units, over 7-6) all try to get their mojo working.
You’ll find a similar dichotomy in the AL West, where the Seattle Mariners (8-5, plus-3.78 units, over 7-6) are in first and the Los Angeles Angels (4-8 SU, minus-4.16 units, over 7-4-1) are in last. There are obviously more important concerns in L.A. right now than wins and losses after the untimely death of pitcher Nick Adenhart; Seattle fans are looking ahead to a brighter day under new GM Jack Zduriencik, and the M’s pitchers lead the majors right now with a 3.01 ERA. The hitters have managed to pump out just enough offense to get the over to the pay window, led by another unusual hero in Endy Chavez (7.0 VORP) with a .917 OPS.
You may have noticed that the over has been profitable for all the teams we’ve mentioned up to this point. It’s a nationwide trend; out of 30 teams, only six were sliding under the posted total. The main offender is in the National League Central, where the Houston Astros (4-8, minus-4.28 units) have scored just 36 runs in 12 games. The under is 9-2-1 while Lance Berkman (0.3 VORP) and Carlos Lee (minus-0.8 VORP) try to find their stroke.
No such worries in Miami. The Florida Marlins (11-1, plus-11.18 units, over 7-5) are the toast of the town with the best record in the MLB standings and against the moneyline. Not much going wrong with these guys – which makes them an interesting option on the futures market after dropping from 20-1 at the open to 40-1 at press time. Less appealing: the Washington Nationals (1-10, minus-8.82 units) at 100-1, with the over rolling in dough at 8-2-1. Cha-ching.
So what do we know with two of the 26 weeks on the MLB schedule behind us? Though it's still way too early to draw a lot of conclusions, some trends are difficult to ignore, starting in New York where Chien-Ming Wang and the Yankees are off to a money-burning start for their backers. Fans and bettors following the Toronto Blue Jays and red-hot Florida Marlins are all smiles, as are those betting the Over.
Strange things are happening.
The first few weeks of the MLB season are usually pretty chaotic – teams that were expected to storm out of the gate stumble instead, while others with lower expectations make a big splash. The standings in April should always be taken with as many grains of salt as possible.
But you can’t blame this all on small sample size. Some of these underperforming teams are going to go on to have disappointing campaigns. Others will continue to overcome the betting odds and make a strong run for the playoffs.
The New York Yankees (7-6, minus-2.02 units) haven’t been quite the alpha team many were expecting after they added C.C. Sabathia, A.J. Burnett, Mark Teixeira and Nick Swisher. Teixeira (1.3 VORP) has yet to make an impact, Xavier Nady (0.3 VORP) is apparently gone for the year after his elbow gave out on a throw from the outfield, and Chien-Ming Wang (-18.4 VORP) is all sorts of wrong after three consecutive awful starts.
The Yanks desperately need Alex Rodriguez (hip) back in the lineup with Cody Ransom (-4.4 VORP) hitting a .190 OBP in his place. But mostly it’s about the pitching right now; New York is No. 28 in the majors with a 6.53 ERA, and the over is along for the ride at 9-4. The new stadium appears to be more hitter-friendly, as well, with a park factor of 1.355 through Sunday – although that could again be more attributable to New York’s awful pitching.
The news isn’t any better out of Boston, where the Red Sox (6-6, minus-2.38 units) have the over at 8-3-1. Their pitching (4.76 ERA) has been less than advertised at No. 17 in the nation; Daisuke Matsuzaka (-4.1 VORP) is out indefinitely with inflammation in his arm, while Brad Penny (-4.1 VORP) and Jon Lester (-3.0 VORP) haven’t clicked on the mound yet. And the early returns from David Ortiz (-4.6 VORP) aren’t promising: 8-for-47 with zero home runs.
The biggest money team in the American League can also be found in the East: the Toronto Blue Jays (10-4, plus-6.26 units). Their big bats have the over at 8-6, leading off with the highly unlikely Marco Scutaro (9.9 VORP). This might not last, but there’s talent in Toronto and an opportunity to advance while New York, Boston and Tampa Bay (5-8, minus-3.93 units, over 7-6) all try to get their mojo working.
You’ll find a similar dichotomy in the AL West, where the Seattle Mariners (8-5, plus-3.78 units, over 7-6) are in first and the Los Angeles Angels (4-8 SU, minus-4.16 units, over 7-4-1) are in last. There are obviously more important concerns in L.A. right now than wins and losses after the untimely death of pitcher Nick Adenhart; Seattle fans are looking ahead to a brighter day under new GM Jack Zduriencik, and the M’s pitchers lead the majors right now with a 3.01 ERA. The hitters have managed to pump out just enough offense to get the over to the pay window, led by another unusual hero in Endy Chavez (7.0 VORP) with a .917 OPS.
You may have noticed that the over has been profitable for all the teams we’ve mentioned up to this point. It’s a nationwide trend; out of 30 teams, only six were sliding under the posted total. The main offender is in the National League Central, where the Houston Astros (4-8, minus-4.28 units) have scored just 36 runs in 12 games. The under is 9-2-1 while Lance Berkman (0.3 VORP) and Carlos Lee (minus-0.8 VORP) try to find their stroke.
No such worries in Miami. The Florida Marlins (11-1, plus-11.18 units, over 7-5) are the toast of the town with the best record in the MLB standings and against the moneyline. Not much going wrong with these guys – which makes them an interesting option on the futures market after dropping from 20-1 at the open to 40-1 at press time. Less appealing: the Washington Nationals (1-10, minus-8.82 units) at 100-1, with the over rolling in dough at 8-2-1. Cha-ching.
