2008 MLB 1-Run Games Distributed by Total

[LT Profits]

1-RUN GAMES
DISTRIBUTION BY POSTED TOTAL
MAJOR LEAGUE BASEBALL 2008

Total	Freq	1-Run	Pct
6.5	14	3	21.43%
7.0	75	26	34.67%
7.5	210	73	34.76%
8.0	277	71	25.63%
8.5	490	136	27.76%
9.0	597	181	30.32%
9.5	425	104	24.47%
10.0	176	42	23.86%
10.5	116	32	27.59%
11.0	51	13	25.49%
11.5	20	5	25.00%
12.0	7	2	28.57%
12.5	2	1	50.00%
[B]ALL	2460	689	28.01%[/B]

[Vonnegut]

Interesting. Break it down for us LT. What does this mean in terms of wagering?

[Eleven]

Good stuff, thanks for posting it.

[Chi_archie]

not enough to go on... but if you play RL's according to those numbers in 08

you'd not want to bet a -1.5 on a game with a total of 9 and you'd not want to bet your -1.5's on games with totals of 7.5 and 7 but bet +1.5's

games with a total of 10 were most likely to win for -1.5's but you don't know how many favs and how many dogs won those games....

[Vonnegut]

The way I read this is the higher the total the better play the runline would be?
Yes?
No?
Pierre, what.

[Madetowin]

I'm thinking its the high the total you take the RL for the fav. So Rangers and Cardnials should be easy money there

[Igetp2s]

Why would a total of 9 be almost 5% more likely to end in a 1 run game than a total of 8? You would think the lower the expected scoring, the more likely a 1 run game.

I'd be very surprised if that % for totals of 9 holds up over a few years and with a larger sample size.

[InTheHole]

Would it be possible to do that with a larger sample of 3 and 5 years?

[Chi_archie]

agreed ITH... I'd love to see a larger sample... some of those stats are counter intuitive

[InTheHole]

It is hard to get anything worthwhile out of percentages when some of those totals are n=15 or n=30 vs. n=350; n=500

Chi---thanks for the explanation...very helpful!

[Rich Boy]

LT, do this for the last 15 years, then the numbers will make sense.

[u21c3f6]

Why would a total of 9 be almost 5% more likely to end in a 1 run game than a total of 8? You would think the lower the expected scoring, the more likely a 1 run game.

I'd be very surprised if that % for totals of 9 holds up over a few years and with a larger sample size.

Let's make the assumption that the line is a good indicator of the total # of runs scored in a game. If I told you that I knew for a fact that when a particular game was over that there would be exactly 8 runs scored, there is no way for it to be a 1-run game. To be a 1-run game the total must be odd. While this is not a very large sample, note that the same effect appears to occur at 10. In fact, many times I take into account the totals # to determine if and how I will play the runline.

Joe.