2015 SDQL Baseball Thread

[Alex Vaile]

Season to date: 47-42 + 5.13 units
Today's results: 3-4 -1.65 units blew 3 units on Marlins damn.

Mariners, Phillies, D-Backs RL+1.5 winners and Brewers D-Backs, Marlins and Marlins RL +1.5 losers

[Alex Vaile]

Today's plays :

Play Rockies + 175
Play Phillies + 108
Play Brewers + 105

HD and tA(W) < .42 and month < 7 and division = o:division (green7)

[Alex Vaile]

Play Astros -103


s:SIP = 8 and 0 < s:SRA < 3 and s:SSO > 3 and 0 < s:SWA < 5 and s:SHF < 34 and starter rest < 7 and 3 < s:SHA < 6 and (A or day != Saturday) and (A or SG < 4) and line < 147 and 2 < p:hits < 16 and op:margin > -9 and game number < 154 (Bases )

[Alex Vaile]

Play Blue Jays - 108

H and p:margin >= 3 and op:runs = 0 and WP < 60 and o:WP > 38.5 and line > -230 and conference = o:conference and (month != 7 and month != 8) and 2008 <= season and SG > 1 and total > 6.5 ( JMon )

[Alex Vaile]

Play Under 7.5 even Cardinals vs Pirates

4 < so:R1 < 9 and s:SRA < 10 and s:SPT < 110 and starter rest < 40 and s:SHRA < 3 and SG != 3 and (game number > 118 or game number < 107) and os:SRA < 7 and os:SHA > 2 and os:SSO < 10 and os:SHRA < 3 and ou streak > -3 (Bases)

[bking79]

madison bumgaardner is 0-8 as a 140 + favorite when they scored less then 3 runs and he allowed less then 6 runs the last time he pitched

[bking79]

im gonna take marlins and they hit lefties good

[bking79]

padres have a 0-39 trend on them today

[JMon]

padres have a 0-39 trend on them today

what's that one?

[Alex Vaile]

madison bumgaardner is 0-8 as a 140 + favorite when they scored less then 3 runs and he allowed less then 6 runs the last time he pitched

I saw that too on Dr . M.

[Alex Vaile]

what's that one?

It was flashed on sdql vod but not the query

[JMon]

It was flashed on sdql vod but not the query

Curious, as a posted a solid ARI query in the group page this morning, but haven't wagered them yet.

[escism]

I've been seeing a ton of queries posted lately that tell us to bet on the Dogs based on historical data from that trend. Even a good majority of the trends I have saved are heavy on dogs. I know in the past years dogs have been great in the early season, but after looking at a breakdown of this year thus far. It seems that the Dogs aren't doing that great.

April 2015 & Dogs: season=2015 and month=4 and D

141-167 (-0.43, 45.8%)

avg line: 123.2 / -133.9

on / against: +$185 / -$1,628

ROI: +0.6% / -3.9%

May 2015 & Dogs: (season=2015 and month=5 and D)

40-68 (-0.69, 37.0%)

avg line: 121.8 / -132.2

on / against: -$1,806 / +$1,385

ROI: -16.7% / +9.7%

So I started looking at a bit more of a breakdown on monthly trends just to see how the favorites are doing with a bit more favorable line and I came across this query:

season=2015 and month=5 and F and line>-120

I know it's small sample size, but I can't help ignore the ROI and the WP.

Hell even if I go up to:

season=2015 and month=5 and F and line>-130

The ROI and WP is fantastic and gives me a great slate of games to bet on today. I'd gladly take 69 WP today and bring in 27% ROI. It'd be a hell of a lot better than I've done all month betting on Dogs.

Am I going about this all wrong? I've been trying to up my game and follow some of these great historical trends, but I can't help ignore the micro trends going on this season and what's winning right now. I know the tide can turn at any point, but I feel like riding the wave betting on the favorites seems to be at the moment a profitable position.

I'd love to hear someone chime in and counter this and say I'm stupid, and or something. I'm just trying to take it all in. Thanks.

[JMon]

Nothing wrong with playing sdql like the stock market! Risky business, knowing when to get in and get out is key and takes practice. Key is making a profit before it turns! Yes, it appears line makers have caught up to those early season dogs. I remember it was a auto play back in the day, now its selective

[Alex Vaile]

I've been seeing a ton of queries posted lately that tell us to bet on the Dogs based on historical data from that trend. Even a good majority of the trends I have saved are heavy on dogs. I know in the past years dogs have been great in the early season, but after looking at a breakdown of this year thus far. It seems that the Dogs aren't doing that great.

April 2015 & Dogs: season=2015 and month=4 and D

141-167 (-0.43, 45.8%)

avg line: 123.2 / -133.9

on / against: +$185 / -$1,628

ROI: +0.6% / -3.9%

May 2015 & Dogs: (season=2015 and month=5 and D)

40-68 (-0.69, 37.0%)

avg line: 121.8 / -132.2

on / against: -$1,806 / +$1,385

ROI: -16.7% / +9.7%

So I started looking at a bit more of a breakdown on monthly trends just to see how the favorites are doing with a bit more favorable line and I came across this query:

season=2015 and month=5 and F and line>-120

I know it's small sample size, but I can't help ignore the ROI and the WP.

Hell even if I go up to:

season=2015 and month=5 and F and line>-130

The ROI and WP is fantastic and gives me a great slate of games to bet on today. I'd gladly take 69 WP today and bring in 27% ROI. It'd be a hell of a lot better than I've done all month betting on Dogs.

Am I going about this all wrong? I've been trying to up my game and follow some of these great historical trends, but I can't help ignore the micro trends going on this season and what's winning right now. I know the tide can turn at any point, but I feel like riding the wave betting on the favorites seems to be at the moment a profitable position.

I'd love to hear someone chime in and counter this and say I'm stupid, and or something. I'm just trying to take it all in. Thanks.

Nice strategy. Interesting angle

[escism]

Nothing wrong with playing sdql like the stock market! Risky business, knowing when to get in and get out is key and takes practice. Key is making a profit before it turns! Yes, it appears line makers have caught up to those early season dogs. I remember it was a auto play back in the day, now its selective

I was just going back through your 2014 MLB SQDL thread and saw you talking a lot about volume plays and how you strive to be around 55% w/ dogs. Which totally makes sense, I just feel like the lines I'm seeing is more profitable for Faves right now. So I guess, it's the books being smarter than us . I'm going to continually tweak things moving forward for sure! Thanks for the feedback Jmon.

[mdunlap3]

Good luck today gentlemen!

[JMon]

Speaking of favs, I worked on one this morning. Miners look to see how:

1. Since 2008
2. Divisional game
3. On the road
4. Fav of over 150
5. Months July through Sept.
6. Not necessary, by one could eliminate a potential high scoring game

[birdsfan]

starter = Bud Norris and s:L and date >= 20130801

[Alex Vaile]

Season to date : 50-44 + 6.18 units
Today's results : 3-2 + 1.05 units

Astros, Blue Jays Brewers winners and Phillies and Pirates under losers with Rockies postponed.

[Alex Vaile]

Curious, as a posted a solid ARI query in the group page this morning, but haven't wagered them yet.

Of course Pads won

[bking79]

bud norris has been awful

[bking79]

-120 <= t:line <= 120 and p:margin >= 3 and SG = SGS and season >= 2011 and month < 6 brewers marlins

[Alex Vaile]

Today's plays :

Play Brewers + 101
Play Phillies + 131
Play Rockies + 170

HD and tA(W) < .42 and month < 7 and division = o:division (green7)

[Alex Vaile]

bud norris has been awful

He sure has. Seems really expensive for Pineda but JMon told us last season that Yanks play well at home on Sundays.

team = Yankees and HF and day =Sunday

SU: 100-42 (1.86, 70.4%) avg line: -181.8 / 162.2 on / against: +$3,149 / -$3,791 ROI: +12.2% / -26.7%
RL: 52-47 (0.31, 52.5%) avg line: 125.5 / -138.8 on / against: +$1,546 / -$2,133 ROI: +14.9% / -15.2%
OU: 62-69-10 (0.11, 47.3%) avg total: 9.4 over / under: -$1,165 / +$65 ROI: -7.6% / +0.4%

[Alex Vaile]

Play Twins +145
Play Orioles + 152 ( Pineda still too expensive)
Play Astros +135

AD and tS(o:hits-starter hits + o:walks - starter walks) / tS(9-starter innings pitched) <= 1.15 and line <= 150 and month < 9 and rest < 2 ( bking )

[bking79]

ill more then likely stay away from that game tho to much juice to lay

[Alex Vaile]

Play Athletics vs Mariners Under 7 -130

t:team=Athletics and line >=120 and p:margin <=-5 and LGS and date>=20050600 (Dr.M)

was 13 and 0 under I tweaked the line and went to 3-19 to the under.

[Alex Vaile]

Season to date : 51-49 +2.19 units
Yesterday's results : 1-5-1 - 3.99 units

Brewers win, Oakland under push, and Phillies, Rockies, Twins, Astros, and Orioles losers. Sundays not great for dogs and Pineda the real deal right now. Shoot heres to a better week!

[mdunlap3]

Season to date : 51-49 +2.19 units
Yesterday's results : 1-5-1 - 3.99 units

Brewers win, Oakland under push, and Phillies, Rockies, Twins, Astros, and Orioles losers. Sundays not great for dogs and Pineda the real deal right now. Shoot heres to a better week!

Rough weekend here too brother, keep that head up! Get em today!

[bking79]

its been a bad week for the dogs

[nash13]

Read in the google Group that there are some major database issues. Maybe stay away from MLB till they are corrected.

[bking79]

i like pirates and tampa bay

[Alex Vaile]

Today's plays:

Play Reds -135

s:SRA < 2 and 5 > ss:SRA > 0 and sss:SRA < 4 and ssss:SRA < 6 and 0 < sssss:SRA < 8 and os:SRA < 5 and SG < 4 and day != Tuesday and day != Thursday and 4 < starter rest < 10 and o:starter rest < 11 and 161 > game number > 27 and line > -165 and 2 > p:margin > -9 and 11.2 > tA(hits, N=10) > 6.7 and 6.2 < oA(hits, N=10) < 11.3 and STDSWHIP > .948 and ss:SPT > 67 and 40 < oss:SPT < 113 and tA(doubles, N=10) < 2.5 and tA(errors, N=10) > .1 and .3 < oA(BPRA, N=10) < 2.6 and tA(BPRA, N=10) < 2.8 (Bases)

[Alex Vaile]

Rough weekend here too brother, keep that head up! Get em today!

All we can do is keep pushing on... good luck dunlap!