2009 MLB Preview: Boston Red Sox
Boston Red Sox back for another World Series run
One win away from their third World Series appearance in five seasons last October, the Red Sox will once again be in the thick of the AL East and postseason hunt in '09.
“Here's to good old Boston, the land of the bean and the cod.” Red Sox fans are hopeful it’s also the land of the AL East champions and more in 2009 after coming oh, so close to a second straight American League Pennant last season that would have sent them to the Series for a third time in five years.
The Sox did their best to pull off the AL flag in 2008 with yet another ALCS rally. Down 3-1 to the Rays in the series and facing elimination when they found themselves down 7-0 in Game 5, Boston rallied for an 8-7 win and took Game 6 by a 4-2 count behind long balls from Jason Varitek and Kevin Youkilis and the pitching of Josh Beckett and the bullpen. With Game 7 forced, the Red Sox jumped to a 1-0 lead in the finale when eventual AL MVP Dustin Pedroia went deep in the top of the first inning at The Trop in Tampa.
Boston couldn’t make that one run stand up and the Rays completed their dream season with a 3-1 win. The loss stopped a six year run in which a Wild Card team made it to the World Series.
With Tampa Bay’s rise to being a contender and the offseason spending spree by the New York Yankees, the Red Sox have had a relatively quiet winter. Dealing away Manny Ramirez last July helped to keep things hushed somewhat along with their signing of free agent pitchers Brad Penny and John Smoltz trumped by the acquisitions of their rivals in the Bronx.
Less attention no doubt suits manager Terry Francona just fine, though you can bet the pressure will be there and the scrutiny will be back to full-blown fanaticism by Boston’s fans and press once Opening Day arrives.
OFFENSE / DEFENSE
Lost in the commotion last year with the Rays’ run up the charts and the clubbers down in Texas that paced the AL with over 900 runs was the fact that Boston’s offense was the most balanced group in the Junior Circuit, and perhaps all of baseball. The Red Sox finished second to the Rangers with 845 plate crossings, ranked sixth in homers (173), third in steals (120), second in batting average (.280) and second to Texas once again in OPS (.805).
With the same group they had at the end of the season back, scoring should once again be no problem in Beantown.
The key to the offense, and defense, this time around just might be Mike Lowell who missed about 45 games in ’08 and is coming back from hip surgery. Reports this spring have him progressing along and ready for the start of the regular season. With their depth, the Red Sox will survive if Lowell has to miss a game per week. But if he goes out for an extended time, it will hurt defensively at the least and will have a ripple effect in the order.
Boston could slide Youkilis across the diamond from first, or let Jed Lowrie play the hot corner. But that will mean Brad Wilkerson, a non-roster invitee to camp this spring, is the backup at the right corner of the infield since it doesn’t appear that David Ortiz’ shoulder will allow him to play defense at this time.
Lowrie and Julio Lugo are locked in a battle for the starting shortstop job, with both hitting over .400 this spring to ratchet the fight up and make Francona’s job difficult. All things being equal, Lugo would get the nod for Opening Day.
The spark at the top of the order is Pedroia, whether he hits first or second in the lineup. The former Arizona State standout followed up his Rookie of the Year season in 2007 with the AL’s MVP last year and you can’t help but wonder now just how good he’s going to be.
There’s a good chance Pedroia will hit second most if not all of this campaign with Jacoby Ellsbury assuming the leadoff position. Ellsbury’s first full season netted 50 steals and 98 runs in 145 games and his range in Fenway’s center field is a big plus defensively for the club.
Flanking him in left and right respectively will be Jason Bay and J.D. Drew. Bay has to feel like he’s died and gone to heaven having escaped the Pirates to find himself in Boston. His numbers didn’t change much from the 106 games he played with Pittsburgh in the regular season to the 49 games with Boston. But he was a terror in the postseason, hitting .341 with three homers and 1.105 OPS in Boston’s 11 October contests. Drew has a history of injuries that can’t be overlooked, even missing about five weeks last August-September. His backup, Rocco Baldelli, knows a thing or two about the DL himself. All Rocco has to do is be healthy two days a week, is that asking too much? It might be.
With Mark Kotsay out for at least the first month of the season following back surgery in January, Baldelli’s health could be a big deal for Boston, especially early in the season. It also could open the door for Paul McAnulty, described as “a Matt Stairs-lite’ but the folks at Rotoworld.com, or Jeff Bailey to make the club cloning out of spring. Bailey would get the nod today with his strong showing thus far.
After some deliberation this winter, Varitek was re-signed to catch. Coming off a poor 2008 season, though he did hit 13 HR, Varitek has not had a very good spring and will be backed up by George Kottaras after the Red Sox released Josh Bard this week.
PITCHING
If there was a weak link in the Red Sox chain last season, it was the rotation. Yeah, yeah, I know all about the seasons that Jon Lester and Daisuke Matsuzaka had, and will even applaud the effort 83-year-old knuckler Tim Wakefield made. Plus Josh Beckett wasn’t a total flop with a 12-10 record and 4.03 ERA, just above the team’s 4.01 mark that ranked fourth in the AL.
Still, the rotation was held together with baling wire and rubber bands and the club did address it this winter with the addition of Penny and Smoltz. The trouble is one if not both of the new arms isn’t going to be able to answer the bell come April 6 with Smoltz not expected to make his Boston debut until June at the earliest, and Penny being brought along slowly this spring as he comes back from shoulder woes.
In addition, Wakefield is trying to pitch through shoulder pain that saw him miss about three weeks last August. He has been knocked around this spring and it’s unclear how much he will be able to contribute at this time. And we all know about Beckett and his blister history.
Beckett has looked sharp this spring, as has Lester. Matsuzaka is touring with the Japan squad in the WBC and has yet to pitch any official spring games for Boston. How well that trio does in the early going this year could very well determine the Red Sox fate for 2009.
If the season started tomorrow, the fifth starter would be Justin Masterson until Penny returned. If Wakefield can’t go, then Clay Buchholz would figure into the rotation. Buchholz is having an outstanding spring and there are still some rumors floating around that Buchholz will go to Texas for Jarrod Saltalamacchia, but with the shape of the staff currently, I don’t see that happening until Boston knows for sure when Penny will be able to take the mound every fifth game.
Michael Bowden and Junichi Tazawa are both likely headed to the minors to open the year and will be the first call-ups for the rotation when needed.
The bullpen rescued the Red Sox once again last year and has the potential to be among the best in the big leagues once again. Jonathan Papelbon’s right arm has so far been able to back up his mouth on the mound with 113 saves in his first three full seasons at the major league level.
His setup arms this year should be the lefty-righty Japanese tandem of Hideki Okajima and Takashi Saito who, like Penny, came over from the Dodgers via free agency in the winter. Saito’s elbow is going to be a concern all season.
Manny Delcarmen, whose work the past two seasons has largely gone unnoticed, and Javier Lopez give the Red Sox a very nice righty-lefty duo for middle relief. Devern Hansack could also make the club out of spring in a mop-up role.
SCHEDULE
The Red Sox will play a little more on the road than at home the first two months of the 2009 season, but otherwise have a fairly normal AL schedule. Boston will make an extra trip to both Anaheim and Minneapolis, and get an extra series at home in Fenway vs. the A’s and Indians.
This was one team I tinkered with a little extra given some of the injured starters they have entering the season, as well as what was and still is an unsettled situation at third and catcher. The simulations were set to allow Penny to make 25 starts and Smoltz 15, limiting Lowell to 120 games and split the catching duties between Varitek and Josh Bard. Out of all that came an average of 90.8 wins over the course of five mock seasons. Boston’s high in the sims was 94 wins, with 85 their low.
The Greek has set the break at 94½ wins, pricing the Under at +100 and the Over at -120. My lean is the Under at this time.
Other futures at The Greek include a +305 price on Boston to win the AL, +125 to win the AL East and +605 to win their third World Series in six seasons. Betting odds at 5Dimes mirror The Greek’s price of +125 to win their division.
One win away from their third World Series appearance in five seasons last October, the Red Sox will once again be in the thick of the AL East and postseason hunt in '09.
“Here's to good old Boston, the land of the bean and the cod.” Red Sox fans are hopeful it’s also the land of the AL East champions and more in 2009 after coming oh, so close to a second straight American League Pennant last season that would have sent them to the Series for a third time in five years.
The Sox did their best to pull off the AL flag in 2008 with yet another ALCS rally. Down 3-1 to the Rays in the series and facing elimination when they found themselves down 7-0 in Game 5, Boston rallied for an 8-7 win and took Game 6 by a 4-2 count behind long balls from Jason Varitek and Kevin Youkilis and the pitching of Josh Beckett and the bullpen. With Game 7 forced, the Red Sox jumped to a 1-0 lead in the finale when eventual AL MVP Dustin Pedroia went deep in the top of the first inning at The Trop in Tampa.
Boston couldn’t make that one run stand up and the Rays completed their dream season with a 3-1 win. The loss stopped a six year run in which a Wild Card team made it to the World Series.
With Tampa Bay’s rise to being a contender and the offseason spending spree by the New York Yankees, the Red Sox have had a relatively quiet winter. Dealing away Manny Ramirez last July helped to keep things hushed somewhat along with their signing of free agent pitchers Brad Penny and John Smoltz trumped by the acquisitions of their rivals in the Bronx.
Less attention no doubt suits manager Terry Francona just fine, though you can bet the pressure will be there and the scrutiny will be back to full-blown fanaticism by Boston’s fans and press once Opening Day arrives.
OFFENSE / DEFENSE
Lost in the commotion last year with the Rays’ run up the charts and the clubbers down in Texas that paced the AL with over 900 runs was the fact that Boston’s offense was the most balanced group in the Junior Circuit, and perhaps all of baseball. The Red Sox finished second to the Rangers with 845 plate crossings, ranked sixth in homers (173), third in steals (120), second in batting average (.280) and second to Texas once again in OPS (.805).
With the same group they had at the end of the season back, scoring should once again be no problem in Beantown.
The key to the offense, and defense, this time around just might be Mike Lowell who missed about 45 games in ’08 and is coming back from hip surgery. Reports this spring have him progressing along and ready for the start of the regular season. With their depth, the Red Sox will survive if Lowell has to miss a game per week. But if he goes out for an extended time, it will hurt defensively at the least and will have a ripple effect in the order.
Boston could slide Youkilis across the diamond from first, or let Jed Lowrie play the hot corner. But that will mean Brad Wilkerson, a non-roster invitee to camp this spring, is the backup at the right corner of the infield since it doesn’t appear that David Ortiz’ shoulder will allow him to play defense at this time.
Lowrie and Julio Lugo are locked in a battle for the starting shortstop job, with both hitting over .400 this spring to ratchet the fight up and make Francona’s job difficult. All things being equal, Lugo would get the nod for Opening Day.
The spark at the top of the order is Pedroia, whether he hits first or second in the lineup. The former Arizona State standout followed up his Rookie of the Year season in 2007 with the AL’s MVP last year and you can’t help but wonder now just how good he’s going to be.
There’s a good chance Pedroia will hit second most if not all of this campaign with Jacoby Ellsbury assuming the leadoff position. Ellsbury’s first full season netted 50 steals and 98 runs in 145 games and his range in Fenway’s center field is a big plus defensively for the club.
Flanking him in left and right respectively will be Jason Bay and J.D. Drew. Bay has to feel like he’s died and gone to heaven having escaped the Pirates to find himself in Boston. His numbers didn’t change much from the 106 games he played with Pittsburgh in the regular season to the 49 games with Boston. But he was a terror in the postseason, hitting .341 with three homers and 1.105 OPS in Boston’s 11 October contests. Drew has a history of injuries that can’t be overlooked, even missing about five weeks last August-September. His backup, Rocco Baldelli, knows a thing or two about the DL himself. All Rocco has to do is be healthy two days a week, is that asking too much? It might be.
With Mark Kotsay out for at least the first month of the season following back surgery in January, Baldelli’s health could be a big deal for Boston, especially early in the season. It also could open the door for Paul McAnulty, described as “a Matt Stairs-lite’ but the folks at Rotoworld.com, or Jeff Bailey to make the club cloning out of spring. Bailey would get the nod today with his strong showing thus far.
After some deliberation this winter, Varitek was re-signed to catch. Coming off a poor 2008 season, though he did hit 13 HR, Varitek has not had a very good spring and will be backed up by George Kottaras after the Red Sox released Josh Bard this week.
PITCHING
If there was a weak link in the Red Sox chain last season, it was the rotation. Yeah, yeah, I know all about the seasons that Jon Lester and Daisuke Matsuzaka had, and will even applaud the effort 83-year-old knuckler Tim Wakefield made. Plus Josh Beckett wasn’t a total flop with a 12-10 record and 4.03 ERA, just above the team’s 4.01 mark that ranked fourth in the AL.
Still, the rotation was held together with baling wire and rubber bands and the club did address it this winter with the addition of Penny and Smoltz. The trouble is one if not both of the new arms isn’t going to be able to answer the bell come April 6 with Smoltz not expected to make his Boston debut until June at the earliest, and Penny being brought along slowly this spring as he comes back from shoulder woes.
In addition, Wakefield is trying to pitch through shoulder pain that saw him miss about three weeks last August. He has been knocked around this spring and it’s unclear how much he will be able to contribute at this time. And we all know about Beckett and his blister history.
Beckett has looked sharp this spring, as has Lester. Matsuzaka is touring with the Japan squad in the WBC and has yet to pitch any official spring games for Boston. How well that trio does in the early going this year could very well determine the Red Sox fate for 2009.
If the season started tomorrow, the fifth starter would be Justin Masterson until Penny returned. If Wakefield can’t go, then Clay Buchholz would figure into the rotation. Buchholz is having an outstanding spring and there are still some rumors floating around that Buchholz will go to Texas for Jarrod Saltalamacchia, but with the shape of the staff currently, I don’t see that happening until Boston knows for sure when Penny will be able to take the mound every fifth game.
Michael Bowden and Junichi Tazawa are both likely headed to the minors to open the year and will be the first call-ups for the rotation when needed.
The bullpen rescued the Red Sox once again last year and has the potential to be among the best in the big leagues once again. Jonathan Papelbon’s right arm has so far been able to back up his mouth on the mound with 113 saves in his first three full seasons at the major league level.
His setup arms this year should be the lefty-righty Japanese tandem of Hideki Okajima and Takashi Saito who, like Penny, came over from the Dodgers via free agency in the winter. Saito’s elbow is going to be a concern all season.
Manny Delcarmen, whose work the past two seasons has largely gone unnoticed, and Javier Lopez give the Red Sox a very nice righty-lefty duo for middle relief. Devern Hansack could also make the club out of spring in a mop-up role.
SCHEDULE
The Red Sox will play a little more on the road than at home the first two months of the 2009 season, but otherwise have a fairly normal AL schedule. Boston will make an extra trip to both Anaheim and Minneapolis, and get an extra series at home in Fenway vs. the A’s and Indians.
- First 10 games against AL East opponents are at home
- Two West Coast trips in first six weeks of season, including a pair of 3-game series at the Angels
- Six of first eight games vs. the Yankees are at Fenway
- 23-28 (Home-Away) through May; 66-64 through August
- 7-3 (Home-Away) vs. Athletics; 6-3 vs. Indians
- 3-6 (Home-Away) vs. Angels and Rangers, 2-4 vs. Twins
This was one team I tinkered with a little extra given some of the injured starters they have entering the season, as well as what was and still is an unsettled situation at third and catcher. The simulations were set to allow Penny to make 25 starts and Smoltz 15, limiting Lowell to 120 games and split the catching duties between Varitek and Josh Bard. Out of all that came an average of 90.8 wins over the course of five mock seasons. Boston’s high in the sims was 94 wins, with 85 their low.
The Greek has set the break at 94½ wins, pricing the Under at +100 and the Over at -120. My lean is the Under at this time.
Other futures at The Greek include a +305 price on Boston to win the AL, +125 to win the AL East and +605 to win their third World Series in six seasons. Betting odds at 5Dimes mirror The Greek’s price of +125 to win their division.
