2009 MLB Preview: Philadelphia Phillies
Phillies out for three-peat in NL East
The cheesesteaks never tasted so good in Philadelphia after the Phillies wrapped up just their second World Series Championship last October. Is a repeat performance in the works for 2009?
After coming up just short of the postseason from 2004-2006, the Phillies have bulled their way into October the past two years with NL East titles. And the franchise with the most losses in MLB history – 10,098 and counting – made the most of their playoff appearance in 2008 with a win over the upstart Tampa Bay Rays in the Fall Classic.
Question is, does anyone really remember?
No doubt Philadelphia fans remember the franchise’s second World Series title, and first since 1980 (Damn that ’80 Philthies team!). Still, it had to be one of the most anticlimactic World Series in baseball history, thanks in large part to Mother Nature that left the fifth and deciding game of the Series in limbo and wallowing through a cold rain for three nights.
But I’m here to praise the Phils, not bury them or belittle their accomplishment. Charlie Manuel and his gang had nothing to do with the weather, nothing to do with the playoffs dragging so deep into October, and deserved to hoist the trophy as the champs. They’ve failed to get respect from the public, and the books, the last couple of seasons when the Mets were supposed to be the bee’s knees in the NL East. Indeed, if the New York had played as well against the rest of the leagues as they did against the Phils (The Mets were 11-7 in the head-to-head matchups in 2008), Philadelphia might have missed the playoffs entirely instead of winning it all.
Despite what they’ve done the last two seasons, as well as how the Mets have performed in the role of favorites in 2007-08, the Phillies once again are not getting a lot of respect this year. Though they are returning a vast majority of the roster that took them to the Promised Land in ’08, Philadelphia is playing second fiddle to the Mets in the betting odds for the division, and sit third in the NL Pennant numbers at most books.
But I’m getting ahead of myself a little; on with the roster breakdown.
OFFENSE / DEFENSE
Like I just said, the Phils are returning most of the pieces of their championship squad from last year, including the bulk of the offense that finished second in the NL in scoring with 799 runs, first in homers (214), third in steals (136) and posted a team .770 OPS. The most remarkable thing about their 136 steals was the fact they were caught just 25 times as a team, a success rate of more than 84%.
The lone member of the offense that won’t be around this time is Pat Burrell, with the left-fielder leaving via free agency and heading south to Tampa, the team that Philadelphia topped in the ’08 Series.
While the rest of the batting order is one year older, the Phils’ replacement for Burrell in left is six years older as the team signed Raul Ibañez away from the Mariners with a 3-year, $30-something million deal. Normally I would be a little leery of sticking a guy that will be 37 this June into the lineup for a bat like Burrell’s – 33 homers, 86 RBI, .874 OPS. But Ibañez has proven to be remarkably sturdy and very consistent the last three years, driving in at least 105 each season for a Seattle team that didn’t have a lot of offense and batting between .289-.293.
With Ibañez in left, the outfield will be completed by Shane Victorino in center and Jayson Werth in right. That pair did not get the recognition they deserved last season when they combined for 38 homers and 56 steals. Outfield backups figure to be Geoff Jenkins and Matt Stairs, though Stairs was rumored to be in a couple of trades coming into spring camp.
The starting quintet on the infield dirt and behind the plate return, but there is a big question mark surrounding second baseman Chase Utley who had some hip surgery following the World Series. Utley, an absolutely huge part of this offense and defense, was originally expected to be out until mid-April at the earliest, but has reportedly be progressing ahead of schedule and could actually make it back for Opening Day. But that is a situation that has to be watched as missing Utley for significant time this season would be tough for the Phils to make up.
If Utley can’t go on Day 1, Eric Bruntlett is his likely replacement. Philadelphia also has Marcus Giles and Miguel Cairo in camp.
Ryan Howard (48 HR, 146 RBI) completes the right side of the infield and provides the big pop in the 4-hole of the batting order. Jimmy Rollins and Pedro Feliz will man the left side of the infield once again. Bruntlett also serves as Rollins’ backup, with Gregg Dobbs the primary back at third and Stairs the reserve at first.
Wearing the tools of ignorance will be Carlos Ruiz and is the only weak link in this lineup outside of the pitcher’s slot. The Phillies made a deal with their Keystone State rivals in Pittsburgh during the winter to land Ronny Paulino, a much better stick than Ruiz but not quite the same with the gear on and playing defense.
PITCHING
With the balanced and strong offense Philadelphia had in 2008, an average pitching staff might have been enough to get them to October. As it turned out, the Phils had a well-above average set of arms on the bump. While the starters certainly pulled their weight, it was the bullpen that truly excelled.
Leading the relief corps at the back end of the mix was Brad Lidge. After the Phillies won the Series, I had several friends ask me how I felt about Lidge winning a ring after the years he spent working for my beloved Astros, and I gave them an honest answer: I couldn’t have been happier for any former Houston player as I was for Lidge.
I hated to see him leave Houston, and hated what the Astros ended up getting for the big righthander. But I’ve got nothing but respect and admiration for Lidge who was always a stand-up guy and never shirked away from the endless questions that followed the homer he gave up to Albert Pujols in Game 5 of the ’05 NLCS. I was at that game, and that loss sickened me. However, Lidge bore the brunt of the disappointment and dealing him away was simply one of those necessary evils in sports.
Having said that, I fully expect Lidge to slide back a bit statistically in 2009. If he doesn’t, then we’re about to see two of the greatest consecutive seasons ever for a reliever. Lidge went 2-0 with 41 saves – more importantly, no blown saves – over the course of his 72 games in 2008, didn’t allow an earned run until mid-May on his way to a sub-2.00 ERA, and fanned 92 while allowing just two homers in an out more than 69 frames.
And as good as Lidge was, the relievers pitching in front of him were almost equal to the task. J.C. Romero (2.75 ERA, 81 appearances), Ryan Madson (3.05, 76 games), Chad Durbin (2.87, 71 games) and Clay Condrey (3.26, 56 games) combined to provide the middle and setup relief that made Lidge’s spectacular season possible, and all are back for more in 2009.
The rotation that the Phillies used the final two months of the season and throughout the postseason is also back intact. Cole Hamels, one of the top arms in the game and still just 25 years old entering the season, heads the list, with fellow lefty and ageless competitor Jamie Moyer probably coming out of Spring Training with the No. 3 starter’s role.
Righthanders Brett Myers, Joe Blanton and Kyle Kendrick are going to be in the other three spots of the rotation as things currently stand. Myers has come to camp some 25-30 pounds lighter than he was at season’s end, and is in a contract year, something that always bears mentioning.
The one thing that could change is with Kendrick in the No. 5 slot of the pitching order. Lefty J.A. Happ is enjoying a nice spring and will be first in line if someone falters or goes down with injury.
SCHEDULE
I’ve looked the schedules over and over and over, and the Phillies have the most balanced and even schedule in the National League this season. The only rough spot on the slate is June when they have two long road trips sandwiched around one, nine-game homestand.
PROJECTIONS
When I was preparing and running the simulations in late-January, early-February, the prognosis on Utley was he would miss at least the first two weeks of the season. SO that’s how I worked it, holding him out of four of the five runs for two weeks, and keeping him in the dugout for a month in the fifth sim. Philadelphia survived quite well without him, winning an average of 89.0 games with a high of 94 and low of 85. I like that number, 89.
The Greek set their win break at 87½, and I’d really like to jump on the Over. But they’ve priced the Over at -145 with the Under at +125, and being the miser that I am will probably not play it.
5Dimes has Philadelphia listed as +150 to win the NL East while The Greek is showing a +165 price. Now that I might throw a few pennies on at The Greek given how the division has played out the past two seasons.
The Greek also has the Phils at +545 to win their second straight NL flag, with current betting odds at +1615 to win consecutive World Series Championships.
The cheesesteaks never tasted so good in Philadelphia after the Phillies wrapped up just their second World Series Championship last October. Is a repeat performance in the works for 2009?
After coming up just short of the postseason from 2004-2006, the Phillies have bulled their way into October the past two years with NL East titles. And the franchise with the most losses in MLB history – 10,098 and counting – made the most of their playoff appearance in 2008 with a win over the upstart Tampa Bay Rays in the Fall Classic.
Question is, does anyone really remember?
No doubt Philadelphia fans remember the franchise’s second World Series title, and first since 1980 (Damn that ’80 Philthies team!). Still, it had to be one of the most anticlimactic World Series in baseball history, thanks in large part to Mother Nature that left the fifth and deciding game of the Series in limbo and wallowing through a cold rain for three nights.
But I’m here to praise the Phils, not bury them or belittle their accomplishment. Charlie Manuel and his gang had nothing to do with the weather, nothing to do with the playoffs dragging so deep into October, and deserved to hoist the trophy as the champs. They’ve failed to get respect from the public, and the books, the last couple of seasons when the Mets were supposed to be the bee’s knees in the NL East. Indeed, if the New York had played as well against the rest of the leagues as they did against the Phils (The Mets were 11-7 in the head-to-head matchups in 2008), Philadelphia might have missed the playoffs entirely instead of winning it all.
Despite what they’ve done the last two seasons, as well as how the Mets have performed in the role of favorites in 2007-08, the Phillies once again are not getting a lot of respect this year. Though they are returning a vast majority of the roster that took them to the Promised Land in ’08, Philadelphia is playing second fiddle to the Mets in the betting odds for the division, and sit third in the NL Pennant numbers at most books.
But I’m getting ahead of myself a little; on with the roster breakdown.
OFFENSE / DEFENSE
Like I just said, the Phils are returning most of the pieces of their championship squad from last year, including the bulk of the offense that finished second in the NL in scoring with 799 runs, first in homers (214), third in steals (136) and posted a team .770 OPS. The most remarkable thing about their 136 steals was the fact they were caught just 25 times as a team, a success rate of more than 84%.
The lone member of the offense that won’t be around this time is Pat Burrell, with the left-fielder leaving via free agency and heading south to Tampa, the team that Philadelphia topped in the ’08 Series.
While the rest of the batting order is one year older, the Phils’ replacement for Burrell in left is six years older as the team signed Raul Ibañez away from the Mariners with a 3-year, $30-something million deal. Normally I would be a little leery of sticking a guy that will be 37 this June into the lineup for a bat like Burrell’s – 33 homers, 86 RBI, .874 OPS. But Ibañez has proven to be remarkably sturdy and very consistent the last three years, driving in at least 105 each season for a Seattle team that didn’t have a lot of offense and batting between .289-.293.
With Ibañez in left, the outfield will be completed by Shane Victorino in center and Jayson Werth in right. That pair did not get the recognition they deserved last season when they combined for 38 homers and 56 steals. Outfield backups figure to be Geoff Jenkins and Matt Stairs, though Stairs was rumored to be in a couple of trades coming into spring camp.
The starting quintet on the infield dirt and behind the plate return, but there is a big question mark surrounding second baseman Chase Utley who had some hip surgery following the World Series. Utley, an absolutely huge part of this offense and defense, was originally expected to be out until mid-April at the earliest, but has reportedly be progressing ahead of schedule and could actually make it back for Opening Day. But that is a situation that has to be watched as missing Utley for significant time this season would be tough for the Phils to make up.
If Utley can’t go on Day 1, Eric Bruntlett is his likely replacement. Philadelphia also has Marcus Giles and Miguel Cairo in camp.
Ryan Howard (48 HR, 146 RBI) completes the right side of the infield and provides the big pop in the 4-hole of the batting order. Jimmy Rollins and Pedro Feliz will man the left side of the infield once again. Bruntlett also serves as Rollins’ backup, with Gregg Dobbs the primary back at third and Stairs the reserve at first.
Wearing the tools of ignorance will be Carlos Ruiz and is the only weak link in this lineup outside of the pitcher’s slot. The Phillies made a deal with their Keystone State rivals in Pittsburgh during the winter to land Ronny Paulino, a much better stick than Ruiz but not quite the same with the gear on and playing defense.
PITCHING
With the balanced and strong offense Philadelphia had in 2008, an average pitching staff might have been enough to get them to October. As it turned out, the Phils had a well-above average set of arms on the bump. While the starters certainly pulled their weight, it was the bullpen that truly excelled.
Leading the relief corps at the back end of the mix was Brad Lidge. After the Phillies won the Series, I had several friends ask me how I felt about Lidge winning a ring after the years he spent working for my beloved Astros, and I gave them an honest answer: I couldn’t have been happier for any former Houston player as I was for Lidge.
I hated to see him leave Houston, and hated what the Astros ended up getting for the big righthander. But I’ve got nothing but respect and admiration for Lidge who was always a stand-up guy and never shirked away from the endless questions that followed the homer he gave up to Albert Pujols in Game 5 of the ’05 NLCS. I was at that game, and that loss sickened me. However, Lidge bore the brunt of the disappointment and dealing him away was simply one of those necessary evils in sports.
Having said that, I fully expect Lidge to slide back a bit statistically in 2009. If he doesn’t, then we’re about to see two of the greatest consecutive seasons ever for a reliever. Lidge went 2-0 with 41 saves – more importantly, no blown saves – over the course of his 72 games in 2008, didn’t allow an earned run until mid-May on his way to a sub-2.00 ERA, and fanned 92 while allowing just two homers in an out more than 69 frames.
And as good as Lidge was, the relievers pitching in front of him were almost equal to the task. J.C. Romero (2.75 ERA, 81 appearances), Ryan Madson (3.05, 76 games), Chad Durbin (2.87, 71 games) and Clay Condrey (3.26, 56 games) combined to provide the middle and setup relief that made Lidge’s spectacular season possible, and all are back for more in 2009.
The rotation that the Phillies used the final two months of the season and throughout the postseason is also back intact. Cole Hamels, one of the top arms in the game and still just 25 years old entering the season, heads the list, with fellow lefty and ageless competitor Jamie Moyer probably coming out of Spring Training with the No. 3 starter’s role.
Righthanders Brett Myers, Joe Blanton and Kyle Kendrick are going to be in the other three spots of the rotation as things currently stand. Myers has come to camp some 25-30 pounds lighter than he was at season’s end, and is in a contract year, something that always bears mentioning.
The one thing that could change is with Kendrick in the No. 5 slot of the pitching order. Lefty J.A. Happ is enjoying a nice spring and will be first in line if someone falters or goes down with injury.
SCHEDULE
I’ve looked the schedules over and over and over, and the Phillies have the most balanced and even schedule in the National League this season. The only rough spot on the slate is June when they have two long road trips sandwiched around one, nine-game homestand.
- 28-22 (Home-Away) through May; 66-64 through August
- 16-17 (Home-Away) vs. NL West, 20-19 vs NL Central
- 9-9 (Home-Away) in interleague play
PROJECTIONS
When I was preparing and running the simulations in late-January, early-February, the prognosis on Utley was he would miss at least the first two weeks of the season. SO that’s how I worked it, holding him out of four of the five runs for two weeks, and keeping him in the dugout for a month in the fifth sim. Philadelphia survived quite well without him, winning an average of 89.0 games with a high of 94 and low of 85. I like that number, 89.
The Greek set their win break at 87½, and I’d really like to jump on the Over. But they’ve priced the Over at -145 with the Under at +125, and being the miser that I am will probably not play it.
5Dimes has Philadelphia listed as +150 to win the NL East while The Greek is showing a +165 price. Now that I might throw a few pennies on at The Greek given how the division has played out the past two seasons.
The Greek also has the Phils at +545 to win their second straight NL flag, with current betting odds at +1615 to win consecutive World Series Championships.
