2009 MLB Preview: San Diego Padres
Padres to bring up rear in NL West
The Padres went from NL West contenders to division pretenders in quick fashion, missing the playoffs by one game in 2007 to missing a 100-loss season by one game in 2008.
Ah, lovely San Diego. Great weather, nice beaches full of pretty girls, a world famous zoo, Torrey Pines and plenty of bars and restaurants to choose from. What more could you ask for?
If you’re a Padres fan, then you are probably asking owner John Moores, CEO Sandy Alderson and GM Kevin Towers for a better team to cheer at Petco Park. After missing the 2007 postseason by one game, San Diego took a giant step back in ’08 when they missed a 100-loss season by just one game. They probably won’t get that close to 100 losses in 2009, but avoiding a 90-loss season might be asking too much.
Four straight winning seasons from 2004-07, including NL West titles in 2005-06, have kept the Padres from having high draft picks for a while now, and that is starting to show up in their list of the top MLB prospects. One recent set of rankings didn’t include a San Diego youngster until No. 60, Everth Cabrera, who was actually a Rule V pick from the Rockies this past winter. The best up-&-coming hitter in their system is Kyle Blanks who is stuck behind the best hitter on their current roster, 1B Adrian Gonzalez. The few pitchers on their prospects list aren’t exactly tearing things up either.
Those 99 losses from 2008 will guarantee a high draft pick this year, and if the rumors hold true about the Padres looking to unload their ace Jake Peavy at some point this season, they figure to land a good prospect or two or three for him. But none of that will really help San Diego this season.
Meanwhile San Francisco is showing signs of coming back to life in the division while the Dodgers and Diamondbacks continue to be the top dogs in the group. The Padres’ only hope for avoiding the NL West cellar again might be the Rockies.
OFFENSE / DEFENSE
No team scored fewer runs in the majors last year than the Padres. Their 637 figure in the column translated to less than four runs per game at 3.93, sliding just under the woeful Giants who posted an average of 3.95 per game. Some of that can be blamed on their home park, the toughest park to generate offense in the majors.
Like I said, some of the offensive deficiencies can be blamed on Petco. But it certainly doesn’t explain scoring more than 100 fewer runs than they plated in 2007 when they were in the same park. From 2004-07, the Padres averaged about 4.5 runs per game, posting up anywhere from 3.80 to 4.06 at their home park in those four seasons. Last year, their home scoring bottomed out at 3.57.
I grew up watching baseball being played in the Astrodome where it was tough to push runs across the plate. But Houston at least built a team to succeed in that park, using speed on the base paths to generate runs when needed. Padres field commander Bud Black didn’t have a team to do that with last year as San Diego finished dead last in base thefts with just 36.
Of course, playing 81 games at Petco last year makes Adrian Gonzalez’ season all the more remarkable. Gonzalez smacked 36 homers, drove home 119 and scored 103 times, leading the Padres in all three categories. He’s back again this season and has some good pop to accompany him in the lineup across the diamond at third where Kevin Kouzmanoff resides.
Those two infielders will have a new pair of middle infielders to apply with, though it’s not clear exactly who those midfielders will be just yet. The aforementioned Cabrera is battling Luis Rodriguez for the shortstop job and no clear leader has emerged yet. The club would love for Cabrera to claim the job and play instead of either having to sit him on the bench or have to return him to Colorado via the Rule V draft restrictions. Cabrera stole 73 bases last year, albeit at the Single-A level, and that would certainly help the offense, assuming he proves he can get on base with any regularity.
David Eckstein was signed and will likely be the starting second baseman with Edgar Gonzalez taking on a utility role in the middle of the dirt. On the horizon is Matt Antonelli, and that horizon might come as soon as the All-Star break assuming he shows something the first 2-3 months at Triple-A Portland.
Nick Hundley is listed as the No. 1 catcher, but he isn’t going to remind veteran Padres fans of Benito Santiago or Terry Kennedy anytime soon. Henry Blanco will be his backup and mentor.
The outfield appears set with Brian Giles in right, Jody Gerut in center and Chase Headley over in left. Though not exactly your prototypical leadoff batter, Giles performed well in that role last season with an on-base mark just shy of .400 and a .306 batting average. Gerut bounced back from injuries that kept him out of baseball in 2006-07 to hit .296 with 14 homers in 100 games.
Headley came up in June and made a quick splash with his power stroke before tailing off at season’s end. He will also provide backup at third for when Kouzmanoff needs a day off, and that will open up some playing time for both Scott Hairston and Will Venable. Hairston and Venable could also figure into the CF mix if Gerut’s injury bug bites.
Cliff Floyd will be the power off the bench and possibly get some 1B time in. If he gets a lot of time in at first, then San Diego stands a damn good chance of losing 100 with Gonzalez out of their lineup. Chris Burke will be the ‘super utility’ player, able to play three infield slots as well as all three outfield positions.
PITCHING
I might have been a little harsh on the Padres hitters for the team’s terrible downward turn in 2008. The bats were a big part of it, but they surely don’t deserve all of the blame. One reason San Diego had been able to win at Petco from 2004-07 with less offense was they had the pitchers that could hold their opposition’s scoring down. That wasn’t the case in 2008:
However, Hoffman has departed now, finding a new home with the Indians, and you’ll have to forgive Padres fans if it takes them a little while to adjust to the absence of hearing Hells Bells in the ninth inning this season. Instead of Hells Bells this year, it will be Heath Bell entering to pick up the save. If he falters, then it will be Hells Bells. The big righthander from up the road near Anaheim has arguably the toughest job in the majors this season trying to replace a legend like Hoffman.
Bell should be fine closing games; now who is going to set him up? You’d think the GM would know, but apparently he doesn’t.
“I’m a little more comfortable with our rotation,” Towers said in a story at the team’s MLB.com site, “but our bullpen? I don’t know.”
While Towers is busy watching the waiver wire for possible help, Black and pitching coach Darren Balsley will be looking at Cla Meredith, Chris Britton, Justin Hampson and Chad Reineke to form some order in the pen. Also keep an eye on Mark Worrell – no relation to Todd and Tim.
Peavy leads the rotation, at least as long as he remains in a San Diego uniform. Chris Young, who simply doesn’t appear to be sturdy enough to ever work 200 innings in a season, will come out of Spring Training in the No. 2 hole of the rotation.
As things currently stand, Cha Seung Baek will land the third spot in the order followed by Josh Geer and Kevin Correia who is in camp as a non-roster invitee. At some point this year, maybe sooner than later, look for lefthander Wade LeBlanc to join the rotation that consists of nothing but righthanders presently.
Oh, and believe it or not Mark Prior is still part of the roster. Black noted the team was “being cautious” with Prior this spring. Yeah, like that will help.
SCHEDULE
Their schedule does not include a bunch of games against La Jolla High School or the Tijuana Little League, so it looks like the Padres will have to prove themselves against MLB caliber clubs this season. The good news is they get their toughest travel stretch of the campaign out of the way early.
The five simulated runs left the Padres with an average of 69.8 wins. Their high mark was 74, and the low was 64. In the 64-win sim, Peavy only made 18 starts for them to mock him being traded in July.
The Greek presently puts their break at 71½ wins (-110 both ways), so I’m leaning to the Under based on the simulations. However, with three of the runs ending with San Diego having 71 or more wins, the bullpen situation possibly improved if Towers does his homework, and the prospect of Peavy pitching with the club all season, I’m not playing a win total here.
Over at 5Dimes, the betting odds are +1300 for the Pads to win the NL West. The Greek has them part of the Field in the NL West at +165.
The Padres went from NL West contenders to division pretenders in quick fashion, missing the playoffs by one game in 2007 to missing a 100-loss season by one game in 2008.
Ah, lovely San Diego. Great weather, nice beaches full of pretty girls, a world famous zoo, Torrey Pines and plenty of bars and restaurants to choose from. What more could you ask for?
If you’re a Padres fan, then you are probably asking owner John Moores, CEO Sandy Alderson and GM Kevin Towers for a better team to cheer at Petco Park. After missing the 2007 postseason by one game, San Diego took a giant step back in ’08 when they missed a 100-loss season by just one game. They probably won’t get that close to 100 losses in 2009, but avoiding a 90-loss season might be asking too much.
Four straight winning seasons from 2004-07, including NL West titles in 2005-06, have kept the Padres from having high draft picks for a while now, and that is starting to show up in their list of the top MLB prospects. One recent set of rankings didn’t include a San Diego youngster until No. 60, Everth Cabrera, who was actually a Rule V pick from the Rockies this past winter. The best up-&-coming hitter in their system is Kyle Blanks who is stuck behind the best hitter on their current roster, 1B Adrian Gonzalez. The few pitchers on their prospects list aren’t exactly tearing things up either.
Those 99 losses from 2008 will guarantee a high draft pick this year, and if the rumors hold true about the Padres looking to unload their ace Jake Peavy at some point this season, they figure to land a good prospect or two or three for him. But none of that will really help San Diego this season.
Meanwhile San Francisco is showing signs of coming back to life in the division while the Dodgers and Diamondbacks continue to be the top dogs in the group. The Padres’ only hope for avoiding the NL West cellar again might be the Rockies.
OFFENSE / DEFENSE
No team scored fewer runs in the majors last year than the Padres. Their 637 figure in the column translated to less than four runs per game at 3.93, sliding just under the woeful Giants who posted an average of 3.95 per game. Some of that can be blamed on their home park, the toughest park to generate offense in the majors.
Like I said, some of the offensive deficiencies can be blamed on Petco. But it certainly doesn’t explain scoring more than 100 fewer runs than they plated in 2007 when they were in the same park. From 2004-07, the Padres averaged about 4.5 runs per game, posting up anywhere from 3.80 to 4.06 at their home park in those four seasons. Last year, their home scoring bottomed out at 3.57.
I grew up watching baseball being played in the Astrodome where it was tough to push runs across the plate. But Houston at least built a team to succeed in that park, using speed on the base paths to generate runs when needed. Padres field commander Bud Black didn’t have a team to do that with last year as San Diego finished dead last in base thefts with just 36.
Of course, playing 81 games at Petco last year makes Adrian Gonzalez’ season all the more remarkable. Gonzalez smacked 36 homers, drove home 119 and scored 103 times, leading the Padres in all three categories. He’s back again this season and has some good pop to accompany him in the lineup across the diamond at third where Kevin Kouzmanoff resides.
Those two infielders will have a new pair of middle infielders to apply with, though it’s not clear exactly who those midfielders will be just yet. The aforementioned Cabrera is battling Luis Rodriguez for the shortstop job and no clear leader has emerged yet. The club would love for Cabrera to claim the job and play instead of either having to sit him on the bench or have to return him to Colorado via the Rule V draft restrictions. Cabrera stole 73 bases last year, albeit at the Single-A level, and that would certainly help the offense, assuming he proves he can get on base with any regularity.
David Eckstein was signed and will likely be the starting second baseman with Edgar Gonzalez taking on a utility role in the middle of the dirt. On the horizon is Matt Antonelli, and that horizon might come as soon as the All-Star break assuming he shows something the first 2-3 months at Triple-A Portland.
Nick Hundley is listed as the No. 1 catcher, but he isn’t going to remind veteran Padres fans of Benito Santiago or Terry Kennedy anytime soon. Henry Blanco will be his backup and mentor.
The outfield appears set with Brian Giles in right, Jody Gerut in center and Chase Headley over in left. Though not exactly your prototypical leadoff batter, Giles performed well in that role last season with an on-base mark just shy of .400 and a .306 batting average. Gerut bounced back from injuries that kept him out of baseball in 2006-07 to hit .296 with 14 homers in 100 games.
Headley came up in June and made a quick splash with his power stroke before tailing off at season’s end. He will also provide backup at third for when Kouzmanoff needs a day off, and that will open up some playing time for both Scott Hairston and Will Venable. Hairston and Venable could also figure into the CF mix if Gerut’s injury bug bites.
Cliff Floyd will be the power off the bench and possibly get some 1B time in. If he gets a lot of time in at first, then San Diego stands a damn good chance of losing 100 with Gonzalez out of their lineup. Chris Burke will be the ‘super utility’ player, able to play three infield slots as well as all three outfield positions.
PITCHING
I might have been a little harsh on the Padres hitters for the team’s terrible downward turn in 2008. The bats were a big part of it, but they surely don’t deserve all of the blame. One reason San Diego had been able to win at Petco from 2004-07 with less offense was they had the pitchers that could hold their opposition’s scoring down. That wasn’t the case in 2008:
- 2008: 4.41 ERA, 10th in NL
- 2007: 3.70 ERA, 1st in NL
- 2006: 3.87 ERA, 1st in NL
- 2005: 4.13 ERA, 7th in NL
- 2004: 4.03 ERA, 5th in NL
However, Hoffman has departed now, finding a new home with the Indians, and you’ll have to forgive Padres fans if it takes them a little while to adjust to the absence of hearing Hells Bells in the ninth inning this season. Instead of Hells Bells this year, it will be Heath Bell entering to pick up the save. If he falters, then it will be Hells Bells. The big righthander from up the road near Anaheim has arguably the toughest job in the majors this season trying to replace a legend like Hoffman.
Bell should be fine closing games; now who is going to set him up? You’d think the GM would know, but apparently he doesn’t.
“I’m a little more comfortable with our rotation,” Towers said in a story at the team’s MLB.com site, “but our bullpen? I don’t know.”
While Towers is busy watching the waiver wire for possible help, Black and pitching coach Darren Balsley will be looking at Cla Meredith, Chris Britton, Justin Hampson and Chad Reineke to form some order in the pen. Also keep an eye on Mark Worrell – no relation to Todd and Tim.
Peavy leads the rotation, at least as long as he remains in a San Diego uniform. Chris Young, who simply doesn’t appear to be sturdy enough to ever work 200 innings in a season, will come out of Spring Training in the No. 2 hole of the rotation.
As things currently stand, Cha Seung Baek will land the third spot in the order followed by Josh Geer and Kevin Correia who is in camp as a non-roster invitee. At some point this year, maybe sooner than later, look for lefthander Wade LeBlanc to join the rotation that consists of nothing but righthanders presently.
Oh, and believe it or not Mark Prior is still part of the roster. Black noted the team was “being cautious” with Prior this spring. Yeah, like that will help.
SCHEDULE
Their schedule does not include a bunch of games against La Jolla High School or the Tijuana Little League, so it looks like the Padres will have to prove themselves against MLB caliber clubs this season. The good news is they get their toughest travel stretch of the campaign out of the way early.
- Will have home game on Apr 12 vs. Giants, fly east for series at the Mets (Apr 13-16 with a day off in middle of series), then at Phillies (Apr 17-20), fly back across continent to face Giants (Apr 21-22)
- 23-28 (Home-Away) through May; 68-65 through August
- 6-3 (Home-Away) vs. Cubs, 6-9 vs. AL teams
The five simulated runs left the Padres with an average of 69.8 wins. Their high mark was 74, and the low was 64. In the 64-win sim, Peavy only made 18 starts for them to mock him being traded in July.
The Greek presently puts their break at 71½ wins (-110 both ways), so I’m leaning to the Under based on the simulations. However, with three of the runs ending with San Diego having 71 or more wins, the bullpen situation possibly improved if Towers does his homework, and the prospect of Peavy pitching with the club all season, I’m not playing a win total here.
Over at 5Dimes, the betting odds are +1300 for the Pads to win the NL West. The Greek has them part of the Field in the NL West at +165.
