2009 MLB Preview: Florida Marlins
Can Florida play role of big Fish in NL East pond?
Minus one of their big bats from last season along with their closer, the Florida Marlins hope to make a splash in the NL East behind a young stable of arms on the mound.
I can’t stand Jeffrey Loria. Now that is out of the way, let’s talk about his baseball team in Miami.
The bittersweet pill that comes with my dislike for Loria is that he’s got two guys in his front office – Andre Dawson and Tony Perez – and one more down in the dugout, manager Fredi Gonzalez, who I truly admire. And like a couple of other small market teams like the Twins and Athletics, the franchise does often overachieve.
Take last season for instance when they reeled off an 84-77 record, better than the consensus thought they would do. Some of that can be blamed on poor projections from the so-called consensus, of which I was one a year ago. My sims said the Marlins were ripe for a 90-loss season, which they obviously were not. Old hindsight is a beautiful thing, and the errors in my simulations can be easily traced to the eventual performances of three players: third baseman Jorge Cantu who returned from the dead to swat 29 flies and drive in 95, and pitchers Ricky Nolasco and Joe Nelson, the latter being a relatively obscure reliever who was returning from an injury that cost him all of 2007.
But in honor of the recent passing of broadcast great Paul Harvey, we need to look inside that 84-77 record to find “the rest of the story.”
Not to take away from what they accomplished overall in 2008, but the Marlins really didn’t perform well against the better clubs in the NL. Facing the two worst clubs on the Senior Circuit, Washington and San Diego, Florida was 18-5. That included absolutely owning the Nats with a 14-3 mark. If not for a September Nor’easter that blew through the nation’s capitol that canceled the final game of the season series, there’s a very good change the Marlines would’ve been 15-3 vs. Washington.
Every team pads their record versus the bottom dwellers. But when you Pythagorean W-L theory seam heads are adding up your numbers this year, remember the 106-72 advantage in scoring the Fish had against the Nats.
OFFENSE / DEFENSE
Offense is where the Marlins really blew a lot of projections out of the water last summer. They finished fifth in the NL in scoring (770 runs) and second in homers (208). So much for the notion that closer to sea level retards the long ball.
With two-thirds of 2008’s regulars back, offense should still be a bright spot this season.
The dark cloud over the position players is defense, however. Florida hung up 117 fielding gaffes on the ledger in 2008; only the Nationals’ 123 were worse.
Let’s start in the middle of the diamond where shortstop Hanley Ramirez and second baseman Dan Uggla are returning. About the only thing not to like about the pair is their defense that, while not awful, is far from great. I’m not sure Uggla’s range will really improve (ranked fifth in the NL in 2008 among 2B who qualified), and Ramirez’ defensive ratings last year had him 10th, dead last among the shortstops that qualified, in fielding percentage and not as high as you might think in range.
Of course, offensively the pair ranks among the elite middle tandems.
The infield corners this season are yet to be decided. If everything went according to plan for the Marlins this spring, Cantu would be the starting third baseman on Opening Day and Gaby Sanchez will be at first. Cantu, as mentioned, had a brilliant comeback season after struggling with the Tampa and Cincinnati franchises in 2006-07.
Sanchez, a fourth round pick by Florida in ’05, made it up for a taste of the big leagues last season without having spent a day at the Triple-A level. Gonzalez has pegged him as Florida’s first sacker, but if he has a rough spring then look for Cantu to move across the diamond to first and for either Dallas McPherson or Emilio Bonifacio to take over at the hot corner.
McPherson and Bonifacio should have reserve jobs at least. Wes Helms can also backup the corners.
Behind the plate will be some combination of John Baker and Mike Rabelo. Baker impressed the last couple of months with five homers, 32 RBI and an .839 OPS over 61 games. Part of the nutty, 4-team trade that started in late March 2007 between Oakland, Florida, Arizona and Toronto, and ending in August 2008 with David Eckstein one of the ‘players to be named later’ in the whole affair, Baker has been seen hitting in the two-hole of the order so far this spring.
With Josh Willingham now gone, there will be at least one new face in Florida’s outfield. That new face will be Cameron Maybin out in center and flanked by Jeremy Hermida in left and Cody Ross in right. Maybin, who came to the Marlins from the Tigers in the Miguel Cabrera, Dontrelle Willis deal in Dec 2007, is probably best remembered for taking Roger Clemens deep in his very first MLB at bat while in Detroit in Aug 2007. He’s shown the ability to hit for a decent average despite a lot of strikeouts, has a little pop and very good speed and is the odds on favorite to bat in the No. 1 slot.
Hermida and Ross are both former high draft picks – Hermida was the 11th overall selection in ’02 – and should be coming into their prime years now. Ross dropped back on the stats pages last year playing full-time for the first time in his career; Hermida also slid back playing 142 games, the most in what has been an injury-hampered career so far.
The three candidates for reserve outfield roles include Alfredo Amezaga, Scott Cousins and non-roster invitee Jay Gibbons.
PITCHING
There were some bright spots and some dark spots in Miami last season on the pitching staff that finished 11th in ERA (4.44), 11th in allowing walks (586) and in the middle of the NL pack surrendering 161 long balls. One of the bright spots is gone, but the youngsters left behind could certainly improve as they mature.
Ricky Nolasco, Josh Johnson and Chris Volstad were three bright spots in the rotation, and all three will be back at the top of the pitching order this season. Nolasco returned from injuries in 2007 to lead the staff with 15 wins – Florida was 21-11 in his 32 starts after opening the year in the pen – and toss 212 innings with a 3.52 ERA and 186 strikeouts, eighth in the NL. He is the favorite to get the Opening Day nod this year, but not without a fight from at Johnson who made a successful return from Tommy John surgery to go 7-1 with a 3.61 ERA in 14 starts (Marlins were 11-3 in his outings).
Volstad is the real ace in the making, however. The young man is huge, 6-8, 230, and was the 16th overall pick in 2005 out of nearby Palm Beach Gardens High. He struggled a bit with command – 36 walks in 84 innings, four of them intentional – but did surrender only three long balls and fashioned a nice 2.88 ERA in his first look at big league hitters. He could be excellent follow material pitching in the three or four slot of the rotation against other 3-4 starters.
Another part of the Cabrera-Willis deal with Detroit before the ’08 season was lefty Andrew Miller, the sixth overall pick in 2006 by the Tigers out of North Carolina. He’s another big kid with promise, and if he starts to gain some consistency this year is yet another starter that might have some betting value against other back end starting pitchers.
The fifth starter should be Anibal Sanchez who could round out a very strong rotation, possibly one of the deepest in the NL. However, he’s battled injuries since his rookie splash in 2006 and has been the subject of trade rumors. Burke Badenhop would be the most likely candidate to step into the rotation if Sanchez is dealt or any of the first five goes down with an injury.
Badenhop could also figure into the bullpen plans depending on what happens this spring. The relief corps is being reshuffled after the loss of Kevin Gregg who was traded to the Cubs. Shuffling into the closer’s role is Matt Lindstrom who took over for Gregg towards the end of 2008 and looked strong shutting down the opposition in the ninth inning. He had one bad outing in early September in a wild affair against the Braves, allowing just two hits and issuing only one walk over the course of his final nine outings.
Setting Lindstrom up should be Leo Nuñez who came from the Royals in the deal that sent former first baseman Mike Jacobs to Kansas City. Renyel Pinto and Taylor Tankersley are left-handed options, and the way Tankersley has opened Spring Training, he just might be optioned.
Middle relief roles will go to Logan Kensing and Scott Proctor, assuming Proctor’s elbow is healed. And if you’re looking for a long shot that could become a big part of this pen, Kiko Calero is at the team’s Jupiter facility this spring.
SCHEDULE
Florida has a fairly balanced slate this year. Outside of a couple of interleague series, the Marlins only face one team this year with a lopsided home-away setup, and that’s the Reds who they get at home in Miami twice and face on the road in Porkopolis four times.
Here’s a team that I disagree with as far as how the simulation projections came out. Florida averaged 78.2 wins through the five runs, with a high of 84 and a low of 72. That 78.2 is enough perhaps to go on and take the Over at The Greek where they have the break mark at 76½ wins (Over +110, Under -130). The potential of this rotation, however, has me leaning more towards 80-82 wins. The only drawbacks are the unsettled spots at catcher, center and the infield corners…well, that and the always present possibility of injuries to a pitching staff.
The Greek’s betting odds currently list the Marlins as part of the field in the NL East at +205, which hardly seems worth it with the Mets +145 and the Phillies +165. Florida is +1615 at the same shop to win their third NL Pennant, and +4050 to win their third World Series Championship.
Minus one of their big bats from last season along with their closer, the Florida Marlins hope to make a splash in the NL East behind a young stable of arms on the mound.
I can’t stand Jeffrey Loria. Now that is out of the way, let’s talk about his baseball team in Miami.
The bittersweet pill that comes with my dislike for Loria is that he’s got two guys in his front office – Andre Dawson and Tony Perez – and one more down in the dugout, manager Fredi Gonzalez, who I truly admire. And like a couple of other small market teams like the Twins and Athletics, the franchise does often overachieve.
Take last season for instance when they reeled off an 84-77 record, better than the consensus thought they would do. Some of that can be blamed on poor projections from the so-called consensus, of which I was one a year ago. My sims said the Marlins were ripe for a 90-loss season, which they obviously were not. Old hindsight is a beautiful thing, and the errors in my simulations can be easily traced to the eventual performances of three players: third baseman Jorge Cantu who returned from the dead to swat 29 flies and drive in 95, and pitchers Ricky Nolasco and Joe Nelson, the latter being a relatively obscure reliever who was returning from an injury that cost him all of 2007.
But in honor of the recent passing of broadcast great Paul Harvey, we need to look inside that 84-77 record to find “the rest of the story.”
Not to take away from what they accomplished overall in 2008, but the Marlins really didn’t perform well against the better clubs in the NL. Facing the two worst clubs on the Senior Circuit, Washington and San Diego, Florida was 18-5. That included absolutely owning the Nats with a 14-3 mark. If not for a September Nor’easter that blew through the nation’s capitol that canceled the final game of the season series, there’s a very good change the Marlines would’ve been 15-3 vs. Washington.
Every team pads their record versus the bottom dwellers. But when you Pythagorean W-L theory seam heads are adding up your numbers this year, remember the 106-72 advantage in scoring the Fish had against the Nats.
OFFENSE / DEFENSE
Offense is where the Marlins really blew a lot of projections out of the water last summer. They finished fifth in the NL in scoring (770 runs) and second in homers (208). So much for the notion that closer to sea level retards the long ball.
With two-thirds of 2008’s regulars back, offense should still be a bright spot this season.
The dark cloud over the position players is defense, however. Florida hung up 117 fielding gaffes on the ledger in 2008; only the Nationals’ 123 were worse.
Let’s start in the middle of the diamond where shortstop Hanley Ramirez and second baseman Dan Uggla are returning. About the only thing not to like about the pair is their defense that, while not awful, is far from great. I’m not sure Uggla’s range will really improve (ranked fifth in the NL in 2008 among 2B who qualified), and Ramirez’ defensive ratings last year had him 10th, dead last among the shortstops that qualified, in fielding percentage and not as high as you might think in range.
Of course, offensively the pair ranks among the elite middle tandems.
The infield corners this season are yet to be decided. If everything went according to plan for the Marlins this spring, Cantu would be the starting third baseman on Opening Day and Gaby Sanchez will be at first. Cantu, as mentioned, had a brilliant comeback season after struggling with the Tampa and Cincinnati franchises in 2006-07.
Sanchez, a fourth round pick by Florida in ’05, made it up for a taste of the big leagues last season without having spent a day at the Triple-A level. Gonzalez has pegged him as Florida’s first sacker, but if he has a rough spring then look for Cantu to move across the diamond to first and for either Dallas McPherson or Emilio Bonifacio to take over at the hot corner.
McPherson and Bonifacio should have reserve jobs at least. Wes Helms can also backup the corners.
Behind the plate will be some combination of John Baker and Mike Rabelo. Baker impressed the last couple of months with five homers, 32 RBI and an .839 OPS over 61 games. Part of the nutty, 4-team trade that started in late March 2007 between Oakland, Florida, Arizona and Toronto, and ending in August 2008 with David Eckstein one of the ‘players to be named later’ in the whole affair, Baker has been seen hitting in the two-hole of the order so far this spring.
With Josh Willingham now gone, there will be at least one new face in Florida’s outfield. That new face will be Cameron Maybin out in center and flanked by Jeremy Hermida in left and Cody Ross in right. Maybin, who came to the Marlins from the Tigers in the Miguel Cabrera, Dontrelle Willis deal in Dec 2007, is probably best remembered for taking Roger Clemens deep in his very first MLB at bat while in Detroit in Aug 2007. He’s shown the ability to hit for a decent average despite a lot of strikeouts, has a little pop and very good speed and is the odds on favorite to bat in the No. 1 slot.
Hermida and Ross are both former high draft picks – Hermida was the 11th overall selection in ’02 – and should be coming into their prime years now. Ross dropped back on the stats pages last year playing full-time for the first time in his career; Hermida also slid back playing 142 games, the most in what has been an injury-hampered career so far.
The three candidates for reserve outfield roles include Alfredo Amezaga, Scott Cousins and non-roster invitee Jay Gibbons.
PITCHING
There were some bright spots and some dark spots in Miami last season on the pitching staff that finished 11th in ERA (4.44), 11th in allowing walks (586) and in the middle of the NL pack surrendering 161 long balls. One of the bright spots is gone, but the youngsters left behind could certainly improve as they mature.
Ricky Nolasco, Josh Johnson and Chris Volstad were three bright spots in the rotation, and all three will be back at the top of the pitching order this season. Nolasco returned from injuries in 2007 to lead the staff with 15 wins – Florida was 21-11 in his 32 starts after opening the year in the pen – and toss 212 innings with a 3.52 ERA and 186 strikeouts, eighth in the NL. He is the favorite to get the Opening Day nod this year, but not without a fight from at Johnson who made a successful return from Tommy John surgery to go 7-1 with a 3.61 ERA in 14 starts (Marlins were 11-3 in his outings).
Volstad is the real ace in the making, however. The young man is huge, 6-8, 230, and was the 16th overall pick in 2005 out of nearby Palm Beach Gardens High. He struggled a bit with command – 36 walks in 84 innings, four of them intentional – but did surrender only three long balls and fashioned a nice 2.88 ERA in his first look at big league hitters. He could be excellent follow material pitching in the three or four slot of the rotation against other 3-4 starters.
Another part of the Cabrera-Willis deal with Detroit before the ’08 season was lefty Andrew Miller, the sixth overall pick in 2006 by the Tigers out of North Carolina. He’s another big kid with promise, and if he starts to gain some consistency this year is yet another starter that might have some betting value against other back end starting pitchers.
The fifth starter should be Anibal Sanchez who could round out a very strong rotation, possibly one of the deepest in the NL. However, he’s battled injuries since his rookie splash in 2006 and has been the subject of trade rumors. Burke Badenhop would be the most likely candidate to step into the rotation if Sanchez is dealt or any of the first five goes down with an injury.
Badenhop could also figure into the bullpen plans depending on what happens this spring. The relief corps is being reshuffled after the loss of Kevin Gregg who was traded to the Cubs. Shuffling into the closer’s role is Matt Lindstrom who took over for Gregg towards the end of 2008 and looked strong shutting down the opposition in the ninth inning. He had one bad outing in early September in a wild affair against the Braves, allowing just two hits and issuing only one walk over the course of his final nine outings.
Setting Lindstrom up should be Leo Nuñez who came from the Royals in the deal that sent former first baseman Mike Jacobs to Kansas City. Renyel Pinto and Taylor Tankersley are left-handed options, and the way Tankersley has opened Spring Training, he just might be optioned.
Middle relief roles will go to Logan Kensing and Scott Proctor, assuming Proctor’s elbow is healed. And if you’re looking for a long shot that could become a big part of this pen, Kiko Calero is at the team’s Jupiter facility this spring.
SCHEDULE
Florida has a fairly balanced slate this year. Outside of a couple of interleague series, the Marlins only face one team this year with a lopsided home-away setup, and that’s the Reds who they get at home in Miami twice and face on the road in Porkopolis four times.
- 18 of first 21 games vs NL East opponents
- 23-28 (Home-Away) through May; 69-62 through August
- 19-9 (Home-Away) in June; 12-19 in Sep-Oct
Here’s a team that I disagree with as far as how the simulation projections came out. Florida averaged 78.2 wins through the five runs, with a high of 84 and a low of 72. That 78.2 is enough perhaps to go on and take the Over at The Greek where they have the break mark at 76½ wins (Over +110, Under -130). The potential of this rotation, however, has me leaning more towards 80-82 wins. The only drawbacks are the unsettled spots at catcher, center and the infield corners…well, that and the always present possibility of injuries to a pitching staff.
The Greek’s betting odds currently list the Marlins as part of the field in the NL East at +205, which hardly seems worth it with the Mets +145 and the Phillies +165. Florida is +1615 at the same shop to win their third NL Pennant, and +4050 to win their third World Series Championship.
