2009 MLB Preview: St. Louis Cardinals
Carpenter holds key to St. Louis Cardinals 2009 season
They've got the reigning NL MVP in Albert Pujols and one of the game's top managers in Tony La Russa. Now, will Chris Carpenter and the rest of the mound hold up for the Cardinals in 2009?
Considering all that didn’t go right for St. Louis in 2008, especially on their mound, the Cardinals had a pretty fair season tallying 86 wins along the way, an eight game improvement over 2007. In fact, their season boiled down to just two series, one just after the All-Star Game and one in September, or they would’ve been playoff bound for the fourth time in five seasons and seventh time this decade.
The Redbirds hit the All-Star break 10 games over .500 at 53-43, the second-best record in the NL at that point. They were 4½ back of the Cubs in the division and very much in control of the NL Wild Card. Sweeping the Padres at home just out of the break, St. Louis was suddenly just two games behind Chicago in the NL Central.
On July 21 the Brewers came into the Gateway City playing just as well as St. Louis at the time. Four games later, all wins for the Brewers, two of them in Milwaukee’s final at bat, the Cardinals had fallen back to third in the division despite owning the third-best mark in the NL.
And just when they started to make some headway down the stretch, St. Louis fell into the clutches of a seven game skid (Sep 10-17) that included being swept in a three-game set in Pittsburgh. And that was it.
After a relatively quiet offseason, the only big addition being shortstop Khalil Greene, manager Tony La Russa and Company will be up against one of the best clubs in the National League with their longtime rivals from Chicago’s North Side the consensus picks in the division.
OFFENSE / DEFENSE
St. Louis had one of the better offenses in the Senior Circuit in 2008, finishing fourth in runs scored and bringing home a nice .783 team OPS. Most impressive was the lineup striking out the fewest times in the NL and fourth-fewest in the majors. They were a little slow on the paths, 12th in the league with only 73 steals and a third of those thefts belonging to shortstop Cesar Izturis who is no longer with the club. But overall, it was a strong order for opposing pitchers to contend with.
Albert Pujols was obviously a big part of the offense, eventually earning his second MVP award and fourth Silver Slugger posting a .357 average (2nd in the NL), and leading the league in slugging (.653) and OPS (1.114). The bulk of St. Louis’ long balls came from the foursome of Pujols (37), Ryan Ludwick (37), Troy Glaus (27) and Rick Ankiel (25), accounting for 126 of the team’s 174 clouts.
Glaus will be on the sidelines to start this season after shoulder surgery, the timetable for his return right now set for early May. Right now all signs point to David Freese, the Padres’ ninth round pick out of South Alabama in 2006 and part of the compensation from San Diego for Jim Edmonds, being the 3B for the Cards to open the year, but keep an eye on Brett Wallace at some point this year as he’s the heir apparent for the job at the hot corner.
With Glaus out, it will put some extra pressure on his replacement as well as Greene at shortstop. A .213 batting average and lowly .599 OPS, Greene is playing for a free agent contract and is certainly capable of picking up some of the power slack with Glaus out. Greene is just half of a new middle infield in St. Louis with second base still very much undecided. The team’s MLB site lists Brendan Ryan as their No. 1 glove in the middle, but I’m not counting on that. There are still a couple of decent names out there I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Cards take a look at, including Mark Grudzielanek.
But hold on. The Cardinals are also going to try and take a look at Skip Schumaker at second base this spring for a couple of reasons, one we’ll get to in just a bit. Schumaker proved he can get on base and with the 2B position so iffy, he makes sense if he can handle the switch after being an outfielder up to now.
Yadier Molina bounced back on offense to hit over .300, and remains one of the top defensive backstops in the league. Jason LaRue is the backup once again, and in the wings eventually is Bryan Anderson who the club will eventually have to make a decision on or risk losing their former fourth round pick in 2005.
The Cardinals are pretty deep in the outfield, the other reason Shumaker is getting a look-see at second. Ludwick and Ankiel are set in two of the outfield slots; Ludwick had a breakout season finally, and Ankiel is still a nice story following his change from the mound to the outfield. Chris Duncan, son of Cardinals pitching coach Dave Duncan, is returning from some back surgery and has the edge at this point to be in left, especially if he shows that he has rediscovered his power stroke from the 2006-07 seasons. La Russa is also going to give prospect Colby Rasmus a chance to win a starting job, so this will have to be followed in Spring Training.
PITCHING
The mound is where St. Louis suffered the most in 2008, and considering they were without their ace Chris Carpenter as well as missing 10-12 starts from Adam Wainwright all while closer Jason Isringhausen pitched horribly before hitting the DL, the group didn’t do too badly. Their 4.20 staff ERA was seventh in the NL and they didn’t issue a lot of free passes. But holding leads late was the bugaboo.
Carpenter’s availability is still up in the air right now. He did face some hitters in camp last week and the results were very encouraging. But all signs point to him being ready for Opening Day. Having both him and Wainwright for 60 starts in ’09 is a must if this team is going to contend.
Kyle Lohse and Todd Wellemeyer are in the 3-4 slots of the rotation followed by Joel Pineiro. Lohse and Wellemeyer combined for 28 wins and just 15 losses with ERAs under 4.00. Pineiro is nothing more than a No. 5 starter which isn’t necessarily a bad thing. The trouble comes if Carpenter and Wainwright are both out and Pineiro has to pitch as a No. 3 arm in this or any rotation.
The bullpen will be without Isringhausen (now in Tampa) and Springer (now in Oakland). All signs point to Chris Perez taking over the closer’s role and he certainly has some hard stuff for the job plus the minor league résumé for the task. Now he has to do it game in, game out in the majors.
Having Perez take the bull by the horns is just part of the equation. Josh Kinney and Jason Motte need to also prove they can handle the primary setup roles at the back end of the pen, especially if Brad Thompson and/or Kyle McClellan have to step into the rotation for an injured starter. The mystery surrounding the St. Louis relief corps made the task of running sims all the more difficult.
SCHEDULE
Might be the toughest early schedule in the majors this season. When the Cardinals come out of the chute on Opening Day (April 6), they better be ready to play ball as they will have just one day off between then and the middle of May. St. Louis will also open by facing five clubs with winning records from 2008 in their first six series of the season.
As you might expect with the questions on their mound, St. Louis jumped all over my simulation runs, recording a high of 88 triumphs and a low of 71. In the end they averaged 81.2 which seems a little low to me. But then, it really does all hinge on Carpenter’s shoulder and this pen coming together. Personally, if the line came out with a break at my sim average, I’d jump on the Over.
The Greek likes the Cardinals as the fourth-favorite to win the NL at +805, slightly better than the Dodgers and Diamondbacks today. St. Louis is drawing the 8-gate for World Series odds with a +1815 price.
They've got the reigning NL MVP in Albert Pujols and one of the game's top managers in Tony La Russa. Now, will Chris Carpenter and the rest of the mound hold up for the Cardinals in 2009?
Considering all that didn’t go right for St. Louis in 2008, especially on their mound, the Cardinals had a pretty fair season tallying 86 wins along the way, an eight game improvement over 2007. In fact, their season boiled down to just two series, one just after the All-Star Game and one in September, or they would’ve been playoff bound for the fourth time in five seasons and seventh time this decade.
The Redbirds hit the All-Star break 10 games over .500 at 53-43, the second-best record in the NL at that point. They were 4½ back of the Cubs in the division and very much in control of the NL Wild Card. Sweeping the Padres at home just out of the break, St. Louis was suddenly just two games behind Chicago in the NL Central.
On July 21 the Brewers came into the Gateway City playing just as well as St. Louis at the time. Four games later, all wins for the Brewers, two of them in Milwaukee’s final at bat, the Cardinals had fallen back to third in the division despite owning the third-best mark in the NL.
And just when they started to make some headway down the stretch, St. Louis fell into the clutches of a seven game skid (Sep 10-17) that included being swept in a three-game set in Pittsburgh. And that was it.
After a relatively quiet offseason, the only big addition being shortstop Khalil Greene, manager Tony La Russa and Company will be up against one of the best clubs in the National League with their longtime rivals from Chicago’s North Side the consensus picks in the division.
OFFENSE / DEFENSE
St. Louis had one of the better offenses in the Senior Circuit in 2008, finishing fourth in runs scored and bringing home a nice .783 team OPS. Most impressive was the lineup striking out the fewest times in the NL and fourth-fewest in the majors. They were a little slow on the paths, 12th in the league with only 73 steals and a third of those thefts belonging to shortstop Cesar Izturis who is no longer with the club. But overall, it was a strong order for opposing pitchers to contend with.
Albert Pujols was obviously a big part of the offense, eventually earning his second MVP award and fourth Silver Slugger posting a .357 average (2nd in the NL), and leading the league in slugging (.653) and OPS (1.114). The bulk of St. Louis’ long balls came from the foursome of Pujols (37), Ryan Ludwick (37), Troy Glaus (27) and Rick Ankiel (25), accounting for 126 of the team’s 174 clouts.
Glaus will be on the sidelines to start this season after shoulder surgery, the timetable for his return right now set for early May. Right now all signs point to David Freese, the Padres’ ninth round pick out of South Alabama in 2006 and part of the compensation from San Diego for Jim Edmonds, being the 3B for the Cards to open the year, but keep an eye on Brett Wallace at some point this year as he’s the heir apparent for the job at the hot corner.
With Glaus out, it will put some extra pressure on his replacement as well as Greene at shortstop. A .213 batting average and lowly .599 OPS, Greene is playing for a free agent contract and is certainly capable of picking up some of the power slack with Glaus out. Greene is just half of a new middle infield in St. Louis with second base still very much undecided. The team’s MLB site lists Brendan Ryan as their No. 1 glove in the middle, but I’m not counting on that. There are still a couple of decent names out there I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Cards take a look at, including Mark Grudzielanek.
But hold on. The Cardinals are also going to try and take a look at Skip Schumaker at second base this spring for a couple of reasons, one we’ll get to in just a bit. Schumaker proved he can get on base and with the 2B position so iffy, he makes sense if he can handle the switch after being an outfielder up to now.
Yadier Molina bounced back on offense to hit over .300, and remains one of the top defensive backstops in the league. Jason LaRue is the backup once again, and in the wings eventually is Bryan Anderson who the club will eventually have to make a decision on or risk losing their former fourth round pick in 2005.
The Cardinals are pretty deep in the outfield, the other reason Shumaker is getting a look-see at second. Ludwick and Ankiel are set in two of the outfield slots; Ludwick had a breakout season finally, and Ankiel is still a nice story following his change from the mound to the outfield. Chris Duncan, son of Cardinals pitching coach Dave Duncan, is returning from some back surgery and has the edge at this point to be in left, especially if he shows that he has rediscovered his power stroke from the 2006-07 seasons. La Russa is also going to give prospect Colby Rasmus a chance to win a starting job, so this will have to be followed in Spring Training.
PITCHING
The mound is where St. Louis suffered the most in 2008, and considering they were without their ace Chris Carpenter as well as missing 10-12 starts from Adam Wainwright all while closer Jason Isringhausen pitched horribly before hitting the DL, the group didn’t do too badly. Their 4.20 staff ERA was seventh in the NL and they didn’t issue a lot of free passes. But holding leads late was the bugaboo.
Carpenter’s availability is still up in the air right now. He did face some hitters in camp last week and the results were very encouraging. But all signs point to him being ready for Opening Day. Having both him and Wainwright for 60 starts in ’09 is a must if this team is going to contend.
Kyle Lohse and Todd Wellemeyer are in the 3-4 slots of the rotation followed by Joel Pineiro. Lohse and Wellemeyer combined for 28 wins and just 15 losses with ERAs under 4.00. Pineiro is nothing more than a No. 5 starter which isn’t necessarily a bad thing. The trouble comes if Carpenter and Wainwright are both out and Pineiro has to pitch as a No. 3 arm in this or any rotation.
The bullpen will be without Isringhausen (now in Tampa) and Springer (now in Oakland). All signs point to Chris Perez taking over the closer’s role and he certainly has some hard stuff for the job plus the minor league résumé for the task. Now he has to do it game in, game out in the majors.
Having Perez take the bull by the horns is just part of the equation. Josh Kinney and Jason Motte need to also prove they can handle the primary setup roles at the back end of the pen, especially if Brad Thompson and/or Kyle McClellan have to step into the rotation for an injured starter. The mystery surrounding the St. Louis relief corps made the task of running sims all the more difficult.
SCHEDULE
Might be the toughest early schedule in the majors this season. When the Cardinals come out of the chute on Opening Day (April 6), they better be ready to play ball as they will have just one day off between then and the middle of May. St. Louis will also open by facing five clubs with winning records from 2008 in their first six series of the season.
- 34 games in the first 35 days of season
- 26-26 (Home-Away) through May; 63-66 through August
- 9-6 (Home-Away) vs AL, 3-6 vs NYM
- 40-40 (Home-Away) vs NL Central clubs
As you might expect with the questions on their mound, St. Louis jumped all over my simulation runs, recording a high of 88 triumphs and a low of 71. In the end they averaged 81.2 which seems a little low to me. But then, it really does all hinge on Carpenter’s shoulder and this pen coming together. Personally, if the line came out with a break at my sim average, I’d jump on the Over.
The Greek likes the Cardinals as the fourth-favorite to win the NL at +805, slightly better than the Dodgers and Diamondbacks today. St. Louis is drawing the 8-gate for World Series odds with a +1815 price.
