2009 MLB Preview: Milwaukee Brewers
Playoff repeat could be tough for Milwaukee Brewers
After tasting the postseason for the first time since 1982, the Milwaukee Brewers will be without two of their prominent arms, CC Sabathia and Ben Sheets, entering the 2008-09 season.
One of just three teams in the National League to reach the 90-win level in 2008, the Brewers shot out of the gate winning six of their first seven and ending the season’s first month with a winning mark at 15-12. But then things got a bit sticky.
Swept on the road in back-to-back series at Houston and Florida early in May, Milwaukee was then swept three games at Boston in mid-May to find themselves 20-24 and last in the NL Central after play on May 18. By the end of the month, however, they were starting to turn things around, returning the favor to the Astros in a three-game home series and following that up with a three-game sweep of the Diamondbacks. They would finish June with a 16-10 mark and on July 7, their season got a huge shot in the arm with the acquisition of a huge arm for their mound.
After a loss to the Rockies that day, Milwaukee was nine games over at 49-40, and they had just landed a true staff ace with the trade for lefty C.C. Sabathia. From that point on, the Brew Crew was 41-32 to finish 18 games up on par and win the NL Wild Card. big left-hander won his first nine decisions for the Brewers and finished 11-2 with a 1.65 ERA in his 17 starts for the club.
But that was then and this is now, and the now isn’t as promising for Milwaukee after they missed out on re-signing Sabathia and will also be without another big part of their rotation as Ben Sheets also decided not to return to the club.
After making the playoffs for the first time since they were in the AL East back in 1982, their chances of repeating seem slim at this point. A new manager (Ken Macha) and coaching staff – Willie Randolph is Macha’s bench coach – and several new faces on the mound will no doubt try to prove me wrong.
OFFENSE / DEFENSE
A couple of seasons ago it looked like Milwaukee wasn’t going to have trouble scoring runs for years to come with their young stable of hitters. That prognostication hasn’t come true yet, however, after several of the sticks took a step back in 2008.
This group can still bang it, finishing third in the NL last season with 198 homers. Still, striking out the fifth-most times (1203) in the National League and walking the ninth-fewest (550) is holding the scoring back (750 runs, seventh in the NL).
Let’s start with the top of the order where Macha has already stated he intends to bat second baseman Rickie Weeks in the leadoff slot. To be fair to Weeks, injuries have at least stalled his progression, but injuries aren’t completely to blame. He’s averaging a strikeout ever 3.8 at bats the past two seasons, and while he’s not completely averse to taking a walk, his on-base mark is going to have to improve if he’s going to be among the better leadoff hitters in the league.
Prince Fielder is back at first after watching his slugging mark drop over 100 points from 2007 to 2008. He still drove in over 100 runs and won’t turn 25 until the season is a month old. Bill Hall is across the diamond at third, and along with Weeks is one-half of the keys to the offense this time after a second consecutive down season, and he’s starting camp off slow as he rehabs a torn left calf.
At short is J.J. Hardy, the subject of a couple of trade rumors this winter. It’s doubtful at this stage the Brewers will move him, so it means another minor league season for Alcides Escobar. Primary infield backups will be Craig Counsell and Mike Lamb.
Ryan Braun leads an outfield trio that includes Mike Cameron and Corey Hart. Despite the trio combining for 380 strikeouts last season compared to just 123 walks, I still like this threesome. Braun is a stud and will get better. Hart and Cameron probably are never going to get better and show more discerning eyes at the plate, especially Cameron who turned 36 in January, but they do bring good speed and decent defense to the set. Tony Gwynn Jr. figures to be the No. 4 OF on the team, with both Trot Nixon and Chris Duffy competing for possibly the last OF reserve spot on the bench.
Jason Kendall returns as the backstop; though not much of a threat at all with a bat in his hands, he’s still an integral part of this team.
PITCHING
Not many teams can lose two pitchers like Sabathia and Sheets from their staff and enter the next season in about the same shape as they were. No doubt they’d be a better club with Crooked Cap and Big Ben, but the truth of the matter is if not for one injury to the rotation last season, Milwaukee most likely would have never made the deal for Sabathia in the first place.
Yovani Gallardo is still working his way back from the knee injury that held him to just four starts and 24 innings in 2008. The fact that he’s still mulling over the idea of pitching for his native Mexico in the WBC should be a good sign that he thinks he’s ready, as well as give us an idea of the kid’s drive and competitive nature.
Jeff Suppan and Dave Bush along with lefty Manny Parra return to the mix for Macha, with Parra the one I’m looking for bigger and better things from. Completing the rotation at this time is Braden Looper, inked in the winter after a fairly decent season for the Cardinals. Looper essentially takes over the spot that Sheets vacated, and should be able to give the Brewers 180-200 innings in either the fourth or fifth hole of the rotation.
Getting extra innings out of the back end of the rotation will be critical for Milwaukee. The Brewers sat atop the NL in complete games with 12 last year, all of them authored by Sabathia and Sheets. Seth McClung and Carlos Villanueva are options to start if something goes awry early, and left-hander Chris Capuano is slowly but surely making his way back from Tommy John surgery to provide even more starting depth.
Down in the pen, an eyesore for the team in ’08, there is going to be a new arm at the end of games. Whether or not it produces better results remains to be seen. Milwaukee signed Trevor Hoffman, the all-time saves leader, to close games for them now after Eric Gagne failed in that role and eventual closer Salomon Torres retired. I’ve got a lot of respect for what Hoffman has accomplished, and it’s not like he’s coming off a season in which he looked completely washed up. Still, despite that nasty change up Hoffman has certainly seen better days. Perhaps the nasty divorce from the Padres over the winter will spur him on to prove San Diego wrong.
Gagne is back and hoping to earn a job setting Hoffman up. The Brewers also inked Jorge Julio who has bounced all over the map since his early days with the Orioles. Milwaukee will be his seventh MLB stop since the end of the ’05 season. David Riske, coming off elbow surgery is also a relief option assuming he’s healed, plus McClung and Villanueva who have been pushed out of the rotation picture for now.
SCHEDULE
With the Brewers the first of three straight NL Central clubs on the preview schedule this week, you’ll excuse me if I start to beat this dead horse right now. No teams have a more inequitable schedule than those in the National League’s six-team group. The Brewers will play three extra road games against Houston and two extra in Pittsburgh, turning it around with one extra home game against the Cubs and three more at home vs. the Reds. The only NL Central team they play an even slate against is St. Louis with the Cards and Brewers going at each other on a 9-9 home and away split.
The Brewers are one of the toughest teams for me to really get a good feel for right now. On one hand, the young lineup could come together, the bullpen might be better than I think it will be, and Gallardo could mature into a genuine ace in the rotation. On the other hand, it’s difficult to imagine Weeks, Hall and Hart all breaking out this season and the bullpen has several questions in Hoffman, Gagne and Julio. The simulations averaged 80.8 wins for Milwaukee, and it’s reasonable to expect the club to drop back from that 90-win mark into the low-80s.
Listed at +1815 to win the NL Pennant at The Greek, Milwaukee is drawing a +4050 price to go all the way and win the franchise’s first World Series. That’s the same price as the Astros and Marlins for those scoring at home.
After tasting the postseason for the first time since 1982, the Milwaukee Brewers will be without two of their prominent arms, CC Sabathia and Ben Sheets, entering the 2008-09 season.
One of just three teams in the National League to reach the 90-win level in 2008, the Brewers shot out of the gate winning six of their first seven and ending the season’s first month with a winning mark at 15-12. But then things got a bit sticky.
Swept on the road in back-to-back series at Houston and Florida early in May, Milwaukee was then swept three games at Boston in mid-May to find themselves 20-24 and last in the NL Central after play on May 18. By the end of the month, however, they were starting to turn things around, returning the favor to the Astros in a three-game home series and following that up with a three-game sweep of the Diamondbacks. They would finish June with a 16-10 mark and on July 7, their season got a huge shot in the arm with the acquisition of a huge arm for their mound.
After a loss to the Rockies that day, Milwaukee was nine games over at 49-40, and they had just landed a true staff ace with the trade for lefty C.C. Sabathia. From that point on, the Brew Crew was 41-32 to finish 18 games up on par and win the NL Wild Card. big left-hander won his first nine decisions for the Brewers and finished 11-2 with a 1.65 ERA in his 17 starts for the club.
But that was then and this is now, and the now isn’t as promising for Milwaukee after they missed out on re-signing Sabathia and will also be without another big part of their rotation as Ben Sheets also decided not to return to the club.
After making the playoffs for the first time since they were in the AL East back in 1982, their chances of repeating seem slim at this point. A new manager (Ken Macha) and coaching staff – Willie Randolph is Macha’s bench coach – and several new faces on the mound will no doubt try to prove me wrong.
OFFENSE / DEFENSE
A couple of seasons ago it looked like Milwaukee wasn’t going to have trouble scoring runs for years to come with their young stable of hitters. That prognostication hasn’t come true yet, however, after several of the sticks took a step back in 2008.
This group can still bang it, finishing third in the NL last season with 198 homers. Still, striking out the fifth-most times (1203) in the National League and walking the ninth-fewest (550) is holding the scoring back (750 runs, seventh in the NL).
Let’s start with the top of the order where Macha has already stated he intends to bat second baseman Rickie Weeks in the leadoff slot. To be fair to Weeks, injuries have at least stalled his progression, but injuries aren’t completely to blame. He’s averaging a strikeout ever 3.8 at bats the past two seasons, and while he’s not completely averse to taking a walk, his on-base mark is going to have to improve if he’s going to be among the better leadoff hitters in the league.
Prince Fielder is back at first after watching his slugging mark drop over 100 points from 2007 to 2008. He still drove in over 100 runs and won’t turn 25 until the season is a month old. Bill Hall is across the diamond at third, and along with Weeks is one-half of the keys to the offense this time after a second consecutive down season, and he’s starting camp off slow as he rehabs a torn left calf.
At short is J.J. Hardy, the subject of a couple of trade rumors this winter. It’s doubtful at this stage the Brewers will move him, so it means another minor league season for Alcides Escobar. Primary infield backups will be Craig Counsell and Mike Lamb.
Ryan Braun leads an outfield trio that includes Mike Cameron and Corey Hart. Despite the trio combining for 380 strikeouts last season compared to just 123 walks, I still like this threesome. Braun is a stud and will get better. Hart and Cameron probably are never going to get better and show more discerning eyes at the plate, especially Cameron who turned 36 in January, but they do bring good speed and decent defense to the set. Tony Gwynn Jr. figures to be the No. 4 OF on the team, with both Trot Nixon and Chris Duffy competing for possibly the last OF reserve spot on the bench.
Jason Kendall returns as the backstop; though not much of a threat at all with a bat in his hands, he’s still an integral part of this team.
PITCHING
Not many teams can lose two pitchers like Sabathia and Sheets from their staff and enter the next season in about the same shape as they were. No doubt they’d be a better club with Crooked Cap and Big Ben, but the truth of the matter is if not for one injury to the rotation last season, Milwaukee most likely would have never made the deal for Sabathia in the first place.
Yovani Gallardo is still working his way back from the knee injury that held him to just four starts and 24 innings in 2008. The fact that he’s still mulling over the idea of pitching for his native Mexico in the WBC should be a good sign that he thinks he’s ready, as well as give us an idea of the kid’s drive and competitive nature.
Jeff Suppan and Dave Bush along with lefty Manny Parra return to the mix for Macha, with Parra the one I’m looking for bigger and better things from. Completing the rotation at this time is Braden Looper, inked in the winter after a fairly decent season for the Cardinals. Looper essentially takes over the spot that Sheets vacated, and should be able to give the Brewers 180-200 innings in either the fourth or fifth hole of the rotation.
Getting extra innings out of the back end of the rotation will be critical for Milwaukee. The Brewers sat atop the NL in complete games with 12 last year, all of them authored by Sabathia and Sheets. Seth McClung and Carlos Villanueva are options to start if something goes awry early, and left-hander Chris Capuano is slowly but surely making his way back from Tommy John surgery to provide even more starting depth.
Down in the pen, an eyesore for the team in ’08, there is going to be a new arm at the end of games. Whether or not it produces better results remains to be seen. Milwaukee signed Trevor Hoffman, the all-time saves leader, to close games for them now after Eric Gagne failed in that role and eventual closer Salomon Torres retired. I’ve got a lot of respect for what Hoffman has accomplished, and it’s not like he’s coming off a season in which he looked completely washed up. Still, despite that nasty change up Hoffman has certainly seen better days. Perhaps the nasty divorce from the Padres over the winter will spur him on to prove San Diego wrong.
Gagne is back and hoping to earn a job setting Hoffman up. The Brewers also inked Jorge Julio who has bounced all over the map since his early days with the Orioles. Milwaukee will be his seventh MLB stop since the end of the ’05 season. David Riske, coming off elbow surgery is also a relief option assuming he’s healed, plus McClung and Villanueva who have been pushed out of the rotation picture for now.
SCHEDULE
With the Brewers the first of three straight NL Central clubs on the preview schedule this week, you’ll excuse me if I start to beat this dead horse right now. No teams have a more inequitable schedule than those in the National League’s six-team group. The Brewers will play three extra road games against Houston and two extra in Pittsburgh, turning it around with one extra home game against the Cubs and three more at home vs. the Reds. The only NL Central team they play an even slate against is St. Louis with the Cards and Brewers going at each other on a 9-9 home and away split.
- 25-25 (Home-Away) through May; 65-63 through August
- First nine games against Astros are in Houston; their first home game against their division rivals is Aug 14. Imagine if the Red Sox didn’t make their first trip to Yankee Stadium until the middle of August.
- 39-41 (Home-Away) vs. NL Central clubs
- 6-9 (Home-Away) vs AL; 6-3 vs San Francisco
The Brewers are one of the toughest teams for me to really get a good feel for right now. On one hand, the young lineup could come together, the bullpen might be better than I think it will be, and Gallardo could mature into a genuine ace in the rotation. On the other hand, it’s difficult to imagine Weeks, Hall and Hart all breaking out this season and the bullpen has several questions in Hoffman, Gagne and Julio. The simulations averaged 80.8 wins for Milwaukee, and it’s reasonable to expect the club to drop back from that 90-win mark into the low-80s.
Listed at +1815 to win the NL Pennant at The Greek, Milwaukee is drawing a +4050 price to go all the way and win the franchise’s first World Series. That’s the same price as the Astros and Marlins for those scoring at home.