2009 MLB Preview: Atlanta Braves

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  • Willie Bee
    SBR Posting Legend
    • 02-14-06
    • 15726

    #1
    2009 MLB Preview: Atlanta Braves
    Atlanta Braves overhaul the mound, add Lowe and Vazquez

    Even with Tom Glavine re-signed, the Braves' rotation is hardly recognizable entering the 2009 season after Atlanta retooled their mound during the recent offseason.

    April might be a good month to have the program and scorecard concession at Turner Field in Atlanta. After so many years trotting out household names to their mound, the Braves are set to start 2009 with just two starters, possibly only one, from a season ago as well as several faces that weren’t around much at all in 2008.

    The turnover from the glory days of Greg Maddux, John Smoltz and Tom Glavine has been a gradual progress the past few years. Glavine left and returned last season only to make 14 starts due to arm trouble, and re-signed a 1-year deal just yesterday (Feb19). Smoltz is now gone, signing with Boston this past winter, and Maddux has retired after spending the past few seasons with various NL clubs and will presumably be enshrined at Cooperstown in 2014.

    The bullpen will also have a different look, assuming three of last year’s relievers can return from their various health concerns.
    And the one name that I keep thinking of more than any is a guy that never threw a pitch for the Braves. When Maddux and possibly both Glavine and Smoltz eventually reach the Hall of Fame, their plaques should include a likeness of Leo Mazzone in the background. The effect that managers and coaches have within a single game might be negligible or perhaps nil, but the impact Mazzone has made on pitcher after pitcher over the years can’t be emphasized enough.

    PITCHING
    Since the mound is the main focus of this team for 2009, and where we are going to see the most changes from 2008, it only seems fitting to switch up my normal routine and discuss the pitchers first.
    Despite the loss of several big names recently, Atlanta enters this season with a pretty formidable Top 3 in their rotation. Brought in on a free agent deal over the winter was Derek Lowe to assume the job of staff ace. The Braves then added Javier Vazquez in a trade with the White Sox. And young right-hander Jair Jurrjens is back and ready to build on a rookie campaign that saw him take the ball for 31 starts and finish with a 13-10 record and 3.68 ERA to place third in the NL Rookie of the Year balloting.

    Now ideally, you’d have those three pitching in the 2-3-4 slots of an order, but compared to where the staff was at the end of the ’08 season, Atlanta will be more than happy to list them 1-2-3.
    Manager Bobby Cox and pitching coach Roger McDowell are also going to have Kenshin Kawakami to plug into the mix after singing the former Central League MVP from Japan during the winter.
    With Glavine inked, he’ll be the only lefty in the group. Most likely to get the first call if and when a starter goes down is Jorge Campillo. Given Glavine’s age and recent history, Campillo figures to get some starts at some point.

    The bullpen never got going last season after the Braves were counting on both southpaw Mike Gonzalez and right-hander Rafael Soriano to handle most of the 8th- and 9th-inning chores. Gonzalez missed the first 10 weeks of the season while Soriano was in and out of the mix, appearing in just 14 games before his elbow went under the knife in August to remove a bone spur.

    Peter Moylan was also being counted on for setup work but was gone before mid-April with an elbow problem and eventually had Tommy John surgery in May. He is already throwing to hitters in camp and barring a setback, could be ready in April instead of the May date first targeted.

    There are obviously other relievers that Cox & Co. will use this season, but those three – Gonzalez, Soriano and Moylan – hold the keys for the Braves this season.

    OFFENSE / DEFENSE
    While the mound will be vastly different, the regulars in the lineup will be the same from last April save for one position. That spot is first base after Mark Teixeira has since departed, landing in the Bronx via Anaheim following the Braves dealing him to the Angels last July.

    Atlanta’s offense wasn’t that bad in 2008, even with the horrible season that Jeff Francoeur had and without Teixeira the final nine weeks or so. The Braves ranked sixth in the NL in runs (753), third in drawing walks (618), and third in on-base (.345). However, they were slow afoot with just 58 steals and 10th in the NL with a .408 slugging mark.

    Part of the Teixeira compensation was Casey Kotchman who will open at the right corner of the infield this season. Around the horn from first will be Kelly Johnson at second, Yunel Escobar at short and Chipper Jones over at third. Johnson put together a pretty fair season for Atlanta last year, and there are high hopes teaming him with Escobar in the middle of the diamond for several years to come.

    Chipper posted a career-best .364 average to win his first batting title at the age of 36, poking 20+ homers for the 14th consecutive season in the process despite playing just 128 games. Whether or not he will be able to coax that many games or more from his body this season remains to be seen. Omar Infante will be around to spell Jones when he can’t answer the call.

    Brian McCann is behind the plate once again after another solid campaign. The Braves backstop picked up his second Silver Slugger in three seasons and will be part of Team USA in the World Baseball Classic this spring. That might be something to watch in April as McCann will have less time in camp to spend catching the new additions to the starting rotation. David Ross appears to be set to back McCann up.

    Francoeur will try to put last year behind him after hitting under .240 with just 11 homers in 155 games. The right-fielder amassed just 71 RBI after topping the century mark the previous two campaigns, and with Jones another year older and Teixeira no longer in the lineup, Francoeur has to return to that 90+ RBI mark this time.

    The other two outfield slots should wind up being a mix of Matt Diaz, Josh Anderson and Gregor Blanco. Not landing Ken Griffey Jr as appeared to be the case earlier this week could wind up hurting, but I do like Blanco the best of that trio after he had a pretty nice time in winter ball down in Venezuela.

    Overall, there isn’t a lot on this bench, so staying healthy is a huge key for this year’s version of the Braves.

    SCHEDULE

    The Braves have a pretty fair and balanced slate on the season, and if they can survive the early road games against NL East opponents, should be in good shape on their slate.
    • Six of first 15 games vs. Washington
    • 24-27 (Home-Away) through May; 65-66 through August
    • 14 of first 22 NL East games on the road
    • 3-6 (Home-Away) vs. Cincinnati, 9-6 vs. AL
    PROJECTIONS
    Atlanta came in anywhere from 72 wins to 85, and averaged 80.8 over the course of five sims. I like them right at that 81-82 win mark. The bullpen is my focus right now as the team goes nowhere if more than one of the trio (Gonzalez, Soriano, Moylan) goes out.

    The Greek has set the Braves at +1415 to win their first NL crown in a decade, and +3250 to win their first World Series since 1995. If everything goes right, I think their best-case is being in the mix for the NL Wild Card.
  • Chi_archie
    SBR Aristocracy
    • 07-22-08
    • 63167

    #2
    any chance Andruw jones comes back?
    Comment
    • VegasDave
      SBR Hall of Famer
      • 01-03-07
      • 8056

      #3
      I'd think one blast from the past was enough
      Comment
      • Willie Bee
        SBR Posting Legend
        • 02-14-06
        • 15726

        #4
        Yeah, I wish the Braves would sign Jones and cut Josh Anderson for the Astros to pick back up. Would love to see Jones drag the ATL's down with him this year.
        Comment
        • Fiasco
          SBR MVP
          • 11-02-08
          • 2406

          #5
          here's the shocker team of the year
          Comment
          • Willie Bee
            SBR Posting Legend
            • 02-14-06
            • 15726

            #6
            Are you saying shocker as in it will be a shock if they make the playoffs? I wouldn't be surprised by that at all. The only three teams that would shock me by making the playoffs in the NL this year are the Nationals, Pirates and Padres. Anyone else making it wouldn't really surprise me.
            Comment
            • Fiasco
              SBR MVP
              • 11-02-08
              • 2406

              #7
              to win the division
              Comment
              • Doc JS
                SBR Hall of Famer
                • 09-15-06
                • 6885

                #8
                Been a Braves fan for many-a-moon from back before the days of the SuperStation when the Braves routinely lost 100 games a year...the reality that the Braves were interested in 39 year old Ken Griffey because he would have been an UPGRADE to their outfield from a year ago tells you just how far the mighty have fallen...

                I'm still a Braves fan but it's going to be a very long summer in the A-T-L. Thank god I've got MLB Extra Innings and now I can watch any game on Direct TV...


                Doc JS
                Comment
                • Willie Bee
                  SBR Posting Legend
                  • 02-14-06
                  • 15726

                  #9
                  I used to like them a lot more than I do now, Doc. Glad I didn't know you back in the late 90s, early 00s when you guys kept knocking my Astros out of the October mix

                  You know, I hate to say it and I'm sure it won't happen, but Manny would be a good fit with the Braves this year.
                  Comment
                  • Willie Bee
                    SBR Posting Legend
                    • 02-14-06
                    • 15726

                    #10
                    Weel Atlanta finally did sign a free agent position player with Garret Anderson joining them on a 1-year deal. He might not be the stick he was, and I'm not sure how he's going to play defensively, but it no doubt improves ATL's outfield depth which goes to show how thin they were.
                    Comment
                    • Dexter
                      BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                      • 12-24-08
                      • 25829

                      #11
                      the braves are stuck in the NL East, and the Phillies/Mets are just way too talented. The Braves dont really have a true ace (though I do think Vazquez will have a nice comeback in the NL). Chipper is getting very old, and they cant count on him for more than 450ab's.

                      Look out for Thomas Hanson - he's a future ace who is flying up prospect boards.

                      *80 wins for the braves
                      Comment
                      • WileOut
                        SBR MVP
                        • 02-04-07
                        • 3844

                        #12
                        Can you imagine Chipper Jones on steroids? Hint hint Braves trainers. Put it in his water, something. He will carry us to the championship.

                        On a serious note, the Braves have lost their competitive advantage over other teams which was their ability to out-deal other teams and make better roster moves. This is what led them to all those division titles in a row, a streak that will never be broken. It leaves them an ordinary, average MLB team.

                        Casey Kotchman is absolutely horrible. How he is in MLB is beyond me, and why is he even remotely close to the middle of the lineup? Why we settled for him when we had Teixeira is beyond me. Franceour has turned out to be a terrible hitter, even if he has the best outfield arm in the game.

                        Diaz was a great hitter, he was top 10 in the NL for a long time in BA. I don't know what happened to him last year. He just lost it.

                        Derrick Lowe is not an ace, and I think he was on steroids so we may be looking at an early downfall for him.

                        We had the best team on earth for 14 years, the pendulum has turned the other way now. It was fun while it lasted, we will never again see players of that calibur on the Braves.

                        Thanks for the writeups Willie Bee.
                        Comment
                        • ryanXL977
                          SBR Posting Legend
                          • 02-24-08
                          • 20615

                          #13
                          am in the only one who thinks adding GA probably nets the braves -1.5 wins
                          he cannot field, he cannot get on base, he spends an inordinate amount of time grooming his stache.
                          Comment
                          • Willie Bee
                            SBR Posting Legend
                            • 02-14-06
                            • 15726

                            #14
                            Originally posted by ryanXL977
                            ...he spends an inordinate amount of time grooming his stache.
                            Thanks for the good laugh, XL.

                            But I also agree, don't think Anderson turns this team into a playoff contender on his own. Stranger things have happened, I guess; still, I certainly don't feel the need to rerun the sims just to include his stick in their lineup.
                            Comment
                            • WileOut
                              SBR MVP
                              • 02-04-07
                              • 3844

                              #15
                              We can use his bat. He hit close to .300 last year. He hit .338 with RISP.

                              Re run the sims Bee

                              Just kidding man its not going to matter. If the bullpen stays healthy we will be a decent team.
                              Comment
                              • ryanXL977
                                SBR Posting Legend
                                • 02-24-08
                                • 20615

                                #16
                                even if he hits 300, thats pretty much the same as his obp
                                plus the guy is blocking any youngesters they may have. what happened to the days of furcal and marcus giles. was giles a juicer? he was awesome
                                Comment
                                • pavyracer
                                  SBR Aristocracy
                                  • 04-12-07
                                  • 82830

                                  #17
                                  Nice write up. I see great value in Braves winning the WS at +3250.
                                  Comment
                                  • ryanXL977
                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                    • 02-24-08
                                    • 20615

                                    #18
                                    braves wont finish within 5 games of phils.
                                    book that
                                    Comment
                                    • Dexter
                                      BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                      • 12-24-08
                                      • 25829

                                      #19
                                      yeah, but ga cant dh now in the al on days when hes banged up.

                                      i never like when teams sign aging offensive players in the NL.
                                      Comment
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