2009 MLB Preview: Toronto Blue Jays
Toronto Blue Jays in wrong division at wrong time
It was bad enough when Toronto had to overcome the Yankees and Red Sox in the AL East year in, year out. Now the Blue Jays also must contend with the Tampa Bay Rays.
I’ve always liked Cito Gaston, dating back to his playing days with the earliest of Padres teams. Some of it probably has to do with the fact he’s a Texas native and some of it has to do with my affinity for unique names. Marveling in how Carl Yastrzemski’s name was spelled was the main reason I started following him about 50 years ago.
So it was confusing and disheartening to me when the Blue Jays fired Gaston back in 1997. Sure, Toronto had been on a four year slide at that point under Gaston after the club won it all in 1992-93. Still, it didn’t seem justified to me. One of the problems Gaston and the Jays had in those lean years following the back-to-back Series crowns was on the mound, and that might be a problem again this year, especially in the rotation where they are shy three of their main contributors from a season ago when the club won 86 times.
But their bigger problem is competing in the AL East which now has three strong contenders with Tampa Bay joining Boston and New York. It would please me to no end to see Gaston’s gang upend the division and make the playoffs this time around, but that’s going to be a tough row to hoe. And I’m pretty sure Cito understands that.
OFFENSE / DEFENSE
Toronto got off to a very slow start in 2008, turning their calendar from April to May with an 11-17 record. It’s actually fairly remarkable they were able to go 75-59 the rest of the way with the offense they had, or didn’t have as the case may be. The Blue Jays finished in the lower half of the AL – consistently in the 10-11 slots – in most of the major categories including runs (714, 11th), homers (126, 10th), steals (80, 10th), on-base (.331, 10th) and slugging (.399, 11th).
One of the key pieces they missed most of the season was second baseman Aaron Hill who was shelved due to a concussion he suffered in a collision with shortstop David Eckstein in late May. Coming off a solid 17 HR, 78 RBI season in 2007, the former 1st-round pick out of LSU was sorely missed in the lineup. With the exception of question marks in the rotation which we’ll get to in a bit, I’m penciling Hill down as one key ingredient for this club in 2009.
Hill’s was not the only injury that restricted this offense last season as both Vernon Wells and Scott Rolen also were limited to roughly two-third of the season. Wells still managed to poke 20 homers and hit .300 with 78 ribbies, and according to the team’s MLB.com website spent the offseason working out to avoid the injury bug biting him again.
Rolen? He may never be healthy again, and that’s a shame considering the promise his career once held.
With Rolen at third and Hill at second, the other two infield slots should go to Lyle Overbay at first and Marco Scutaro at short. Overbay is apparently destined to be a fairly average player now, and the club was rumored to have offered him up in at least two trades this past winter. Scutaro is one of those little guys you can’t help but root for, and I suspect his versatility will be put to work this season once again and not be the everyday shortstop when it’s all over.
Infield backups should include Jose Bautista at third, John McDonald and Joe Inglett on the interior of the diamond, and Kevin Millar at first, assuming he makes the club out of spring on his minor league deal.
Rod Barajas returns as the starting catcher after ending the season with a bad hamstring injury. In camp trying to catch on as his backup are Michelle, er, check that, Michael Barrett and Raul Chavez. Barrett’s ability to also play some 1B gives him a decided edge in this competition.
Flanking Wells out in center will be Alexis Rios over in right and youngster Adam Lind in left. Rios saw his power numbers drift back a bit in ’08 but almost doubled his stolen base figures with 32 thefts. He’s been fairly consistent in the batting average column - .302, .297 and .291 – the past three seasons, but really needs to improve his pitch selection. Lind is the young stud that could really help turn this offense around. After a very slow start playing sparingly while bouncing between Toronto and Syracuse, but finally started to put it together in July.
Travis Snider has the No. 4 OF and primary DH spot entering spring, with Millar a likely DH stick against left-handers. Jason Lane is also trying to catch on as a reserve outfielder on this club, as is Adam Loewen who is attempting to make the switch from pitcher to position player a la Rick Ankiel. Elbow injuries while in the Baltimore chain the past few years prompted this switch, and the Canadian signed a minor league deal with Toronto in hopes of making it back to the majors.
PITCHING
The main reason Toronto was able to sniff the 90-win mark last season despite such a lackluster offense was their remarkable pitching. The Jays ranked first in the majors with a 3.49 ERA, the only club in the Junior Circuit to surrender fewer than four runs per game, allowed the fewest home runs in the AL (134, second fewest in the majors to the Dodgers), fifth in the league issuing the fewest walks (467) and second in the AL with 1,8184 strikeouts.
Those numbers were obviously helped along by Roy Halladay who recorded his second 20-win season and came home with a 2.78 ERA in nearly 350 frames. At 31, Halladay had his best season since his 2003 campaign, setting a new career mark with 206 strikeouts against just 39 free passes. He also plunked a career-high 12 batters, most since that same 2003 campaign when nine batters got in the way of his mound offerings. Coincidence? I think not.
Halladay wasn’t the only contributor to the team stats on the mound. A.J. Burnett, Shaun Marcum and Dustin McGowan were also big contributors; none of them will be with the club on Opening Day this year, and that’s going to leave some holes in this staff that only Spring Training will answer.
Burnett won’t be there all season after inking with the Yankees this winter. Marcum probably won’t be there at all in 2009 after Tommy John surgery in late September. Pitchers are coming back quicker from that procedure, but to expect anything from Marcum this year is optimism above and beyond the call of duty.
McGowan was originally expected back by May, but that is looking more and more doubtful.
Unless they get hurt or just fall apart this spring, Jesse Litsch and David Purcey will come out of camp in the 2-3 slots of the pitching order. After that, it’s anyone’s guess. Scott Richmond and Casey Janssen are two candidates, along with a trio of vets in on minor league contracts. Matt Clement could be the No. 5 guy if he shows anything; left-handers Mike Maroth and Japanese import Ken Takahashi are less likely to stick.
Toronto’s strong bullpen returns and will even be augmented if Jeremy Accardo can return to the form that saw him save 30 games in 2007 when closer B.J. Ryan went down. Ryan will be the man once again, and supported by fellow southpaws Jesse Carlson, Scott Downs and Brian Tallet. With all of the portsiders in the group, Accardo’s return could turn out big.
SCHEDULE
With the exception of opening against teams outside their division, the Blue Jays have a very even slate for the 2009 season.
The Blue Jays were the most consistent team in the simulations, averaging 81 wins – 80.8 technically – and ranging from 78 to 83. Once again we’ll have to wait for win totals to come out to really gauge those numbers, but for the time being I’m inclined to think that 81 wins will be as high as the club will get and if the number comes out at that .500 mark will be playing the Under.
The Greek currently lists Toronto at +2550 to win the American League and +4550 to win their third World Series with Cito Gaston at the helm.
It was bad enough when Toronto had to overcome the Yankees and Red Sox in the AL East year in, year out. Now the Blue Jays also must contend with the Tampa Bay Rays.
I’ve always liked Cito Gaston, dating back to his playing days with the earliest of Padres teams. Some of it probably has to do with the fact he’s a Texas native and some of it has to do with my affinity for unique names. Marveling in how Carl Yastrzemski’s name was spelled was the main reason I started following him about 50 years ago.
So it was confusing and disheartening to me when the Blue Jays fired Gaston back in 1997. Sure, Toronto had been on a four year slide at that point under Gaston after the club won it all in 1992-93. Still, it didn’t seem justified to me. One of the problems Gaston and the Jays had in those lean years following the back-to-back Series crowns was on the mound, and that might be a problem again this year, especially in the rotation where they are shy three of their main contributors from a season ago when the club won 86 times.
But their bigger problem is competing in the AL East which now has three strong contenders with Tampa Bay joining Boston and New York. It would please me to no end to see Gaston’s gang upend the division and make the playoffs this time around, but that’s going to be a tough row to hoe. And I’m pretty sure Cito understands that.
OFFENSE / DEFENSE
Toronto got off to a very slow start in 2008, turning their calendar from April to May with an 11-17 record. It’s actually fairly remarkable they were able to go 75-59 the rest of the way with the offense they had, or didn’t have as the case may be. The Blue Jays finished in the lower half of the AL – consistently in the 10-11 slots – in most of the major categories including runs (714, 11th), homers (126, 10th), steals (80, 10th), on-base (.331, 10th) and slugging (.399, 11th).
One of the key pieces they missed most of the season was second baseman Aaron Hill who was shelved due to a concussion he suffered in a collision with shortstop David Eckstein in late May. Coming off a solid 17 HR, 78 RBI season in 2007, the former 1st-round pick out of LSU was sorely missed in the lineup. With the exception of question marks in the rotation which we’ll get to in a bit, I’m penciling Hill down as one key ingredient for this club in 2009.
Hill’s was not the only injury that restricted this offense last season as both Vernon Wells and Scott Rolen also were limited to roughly two-third of the season. Wells still managed to poke 20 homers and hit .300 with 78 ribbies, and according to the team’s MLB.com website spent the offseason working out to avoid the injury bug biting him again.
Rolen? He may never be healthy again, and that’s a shame considering the promise his career once held.
With Rolen at third and Hill at second, the other two infield slots should go to Lyle Overbay at first and Marco Scutaro at short. Overbay is apparently destined to be a fairly average player now, and the club was rumored to have offered him up in at least two trades this past winter. Scutaro is one of those little guys you can’t help but root for, and I suspect his versatility will be put to work this season once again and not be the everyday shortstop when it’s all over.
Infield backups should include Jose Bautista at third, John McDonald and Joe Inglett on the interior of the diamond, and Kevin Millar at first, assuming he makes the club out of spring on his minor league deal.
Rod Barajas returns as the starting catcher after ending the season with a bad hamstring injury. In camp trying to catch on as his backup are Michelle, er, check that, Michael Barrett and Raul Chavez. Barrett’s ability to also play some 1B gives him a decided edge in this competition.
Flanking Wells out in center will be Alexis Rios over in right and youngster Adam Lind in left. Rios saw his power numbers drift back a bit in ’08 but almost doubled his stolen base figures with 32 thefts. He’s been fairly consistent in the batting average column - .302, .297 and .291 – the past three seasons, but really needs to improve his pitch selection. Lind is the young stud that could really help turn this offense around. After a very slow start playing sparingly while bouncing between Toronto and Syracuse, but finally started to put it together in July.
Travis Snider has the No. 4 OF and primary DH spot entering spring, with Millar a likely DH stick against left-handers. Jason Lane is also trying to catch on as a reserve outfielder on this club, as is Adam Loewen who is attempting to make the switch from pitcher to position player a la Rick Ankiel. Elbow injuries while in the Baltimore chain the past few years prompted this switch, and the Canadian signed a minor league deal with Toronto in hopes of making it back to the majors.
PITCHING
The main reason Toronto was able to sniff the 90-win mark last season despite such a lackluster offense was their remarkable pitching. The Jays ranked first in the majors with a 3.49 ERA, the only club in the Junior Circuit to surrender fewer than four runs per game, allowed the fewest home runs in the AL (134, second fewest in the majors to the Dodgers), fifth in the league issuing the fewest walks (467) and second in the AL with 1,8184 strikeouts.
Those numbers were obviously helped along by Roy Halladay who recorded his second 20-win season and came home with a 2.78 ERA in nearly 350 frames. At 31, Halladay had his best season since his 2003 campaign, setting a new career mark with 206 strikeouts against just 39 free passes. He also plunked a career-high 12 batters, most since that same 2003 campaign when nine batters got in the way of his mound offerings. Coincidence? I think not.
Halladay wasn’t the only contributor to the team stats on the mound. A.J. Burnett, Shaun Marcum and Dustin McGowan were also big contributors; none of them will be with the club on Opening Day this year, and that’s going to leave some holes in this staff that only Spring Training will answer.
Burnett won’t be there all season after inking with the Yankees this winter. Marcum probably won’t be there at all in 2009 after Tommy John surgery in late September. Pitchers are coming back quicker from that procedure, but to expect anything from Marcum this year is optimism above and beyond the call of duty.
McGowan was originally expected back by May, but that is looking more and more doubtful.
Unless they get hurt or just fall apart this spring, Jesse Litsch and David Purcey will come out of camp in the 2-3 slots of the pitching order. After that, it’s anyone’s guess. Scott Richmond and Casey Janssen are two candidates, along with a trio of vets in on minor league contracts. Matt Clement could be the No. 5 guy if he shows anything; left-handers Mike Maroth and Japanese import Ken Takahashi are less likely to stick.
Toronto’s strong bullpen returns and will even be augmented if Jeremy Accardo can return to the form that saw him save 30 games in 2007 when closer B.J. Ryan went down. Ryan will be the man once again, and supported by fellow southpaws Jesse Carlson, Scott Downs and Brian Tallet. With all of the portsiders in the group, Accardo’s return could turn out big.
SCHEDULE
With the exception of opening against teams outside their division, the Blue Jays have a very even slate for the 2009 season.
- First 11 games vs AL Central teams, do not play an AL East team in April
- 25-28 (Home-Away through May; 66-64 through August
- 6-2 (Home-Away) vs Angels; 3-7 vs Rangers; 3-6 vs. Athletics
The Blue Jays were the most consistent team in the simulations, averaging 81 wins – 80.8 technically – and ranging from 78 to 83. Once again we’ll have to wait for win totals to come out to really gauge those numbers, but for the time being I’m inclined to think that 81 wins will be as high as the club will get and if the number comes out at that .500 mark will be playing the Under.
The Greek currently lists Toronto at +2550 to win the American League and +4550 to win their third World Series with Cito Gaston at the helm.
