2009 MLB Preview: Houston Astros
Starting pitching leads list of Astros shortcomings
Once again, the Houston Astros have a team on paper that should be in the thick of the…middle of the NL Central Division. Too many things have to go right for them in 2009.
As usual, I’ll start with the disclaimer. I’ve followed this team as a fan since its inception in 1962. The franchise was also involved in my first ever sports wager. I won and a lowlife Cubs fan stiffed me for five cents. I was there for two no-hitters, two All-Star Games, three stadiums, the tragic loss of several players and the ecstasy of finally making the playoffs in 1980 which is still my favorite of all Houston teams.
I was in the stands to witness the heartbreak of falling short in subsequent seasons like 1986 and through the late 1990s. I was in the Crawford Boxes for the worst defeat in franchise history, Game 5 of the 2005 NLCS, only to finally see the team win its first NL Pennant two nights later. I’ve been able to see a lot of great talent pass through the organization.
A lot of my heart is wrapped up in this team if that hasn’t been made clear yet. There’s a bias that I can’t shake. Being a very cynical person in a lot of ways, I also tend to forecast low often so as not to set myself up for as much disappointment later on.
While I promise to do my best to be objective, you should still factor in some prejudice in what follows. Trouble is, since a lot of that is buried in my subconscious, I can’t really tell you if I’m being overly optimistic or overly pessimistic due to my intimacy with the team. So you’re on your own there.
OFFENSE / DEFENSE
It was another typical Astros season last year. There was a hot spurt in mid-May for a few weeks, but otherwise they dug themselves another deep hole by the All-Star break before streaking towards the end and coming up short. Some will expect me to mention the hurricane in September being a big part of that derailment, and it was. But it’s not why Houston missed the playoffs. I can point to being swept by the Pirates at home in July before the Selig-McLane screw-up with those two games that were played in Milwaukee.
Though the pitching wasn’t great, the offense is my pick for the lion’s share of the blame in 2008. The group finished 11th in both runs and on-base, and a lot of that was due to the inability to draw or the unwillingness to accept a walk. Houston was dead last in the NL and only avoided the MLB cellar because of the Royals in the walks column. They were first-pitch swinging against Daisuke Matsuzaka for crying out loud!
There were also too many dead zones in the mix. Forget the ninth spot for the pitcher for a minute. Michael Bourn, who consistently hit at the top of the order, and Brad Ausmus down at the bottom, combined for a sub.-300 mark between them.
Tack on Hunter Pence’s .318 and Miguel Tejada’s .314 marks not far above the .300 mark, and it’s a recipe for inconsistency and disaster in an NL lineup that really has just eight spots to begin with.
Ausmus is gone, his catcher’s slot now being battled for by Humberto Quintero (.270 OB% in 2008) and J.R. Towles (.250). Tejada will be the token distraction for the media all season when they feel the need to bring up steroids. Pence seems a certainty to improve; Bourn may not ever be much and it wouldn’t surprise me if we don’t eventually see Darin Erstad and Jason Michaels sharing some OF duty in Houston.
The infield is where the club as taken a hit with Ty Wiggington now gone. No way in hell that Geoff Blum and Aaron Boone combine for more than about 12 homers and a mid-700s OPS mark. Kaz Matsui is going to have to prove he’s got the ability to go out there and play 135+ games without breaking down. He’s never played more than 114 games in a season, so there’s probably no reason to think he will stay healthy this year. And with the infield shorter on depth now with Mark Loretta leaving, it doesn’t look good.
Lance Berkman and Carlos Lee are genuine hitters. But they have little else around them.
PITCHING
There’s Roy Oswalt, and that’s about it. Some will counter with having Jose Valvomit, er Valverde in the pen, so let’s begin with the relief corps.
There were some good moments and bad moments last year. Valverde was so volatile, getting off to an incredibly horrible start and suffering through another embarrassing meltdown in one of the post All-Star Game losses to the Pirates earlier, getting tagged for six in a third of an inning. He’s susceptible to the long ball as far as closer go, 10 in 72 frames, but on the long haul he was very good. Doug Brocail bore a brunt of setup work and is back and about to turn 42 this May. Tim Byrdak and Geoff Geary did well in their roles, and are back with LaTroy Hawkins who was lights out – oops, shouldn’t use that term – after he signed on. Plus Wesley Wright had his moments as a Rule V pickup. Overall, the bullpen wasn’t that bad and could return intact depending on spring results.
Roy O got off to a bad start and had an ERA over 5.00 through mid-June only to finish at 3.54 and make at least 32 starts for the fifth straight season despite having several pushed back here and there with some injuries. Wandy Rodriguez had his moments, but failed to even reach the 140-IP mark last season. Brandon Backe was horrible, Brian Moehler was decent but not exactly who you want to be hanging your 3-4 hat on in any rotation. And the club failed in its attempts to retain Randy Wolf, who was 6-2 after a July trade, or sign free agent Braden Looper, the two most significant players they felt they could afford.
Mike Hampton and Russ Ortiz are in camp, big whoop there. Chris Sampson and Fernando Nieve are two more options. Yep, things pretty much suck in the rotation and may not wind up much better down in the pen.
SCHEDULE
The division that has constantly been screwed around with the most as far as the schedule goes is the NL Central. Not only do they not play the same number of home and away games with each other, they don’t even play the same number of games within the division. Some teams play 77 NLC games, others like the Astros play 78, and others play 80.
Seriously, if the Yankees and the Red Sox met 9-6 (Home Away) either way, do you think we’d ever hear the end of it? Here’s how the Houston schedule runs this year:
Houston averaged 77.8 wins over the five simulations. The high was 86 – What they hit in 2008 – and the low was 69, a pretty good spread with 78 three other times in the middle. My gut tells me the keys to this team are twofold: Both Bourn and Pence have excellent seasons in the lineup and in the field, and two more starters besides Oswalt have 32 starts and ERAs under 4.20.
The Astros are +1615 to win the NL at The Greek, same as the Marlins and a little better than the Brewers. I’ll be putting a little on that and the +4050 to win it all, but that’s just the fan in me talking. I think.
Once again, the Houston Astros have a team on paper that should be in the thick of the…middle of the NL Central Division. Too many things have to go right for them in 2009.
As usual, I’ll start with the disclaimer. I’ve followed this team as a fan since its inception in 1962. The franchise was also involved in my first ever sports wager. I won and a lowlife Cubs fan stiffed me for five cents. I was there for two no-hitters, two All-Star Games, three stadiums, the tragic loss of several players and the ecstasy of finally making the playoffs in 1980 which is still my favorite of all Houston teams.
I was in the stands to witness the heartbreak of falling short in subsequent seasons like 1986 and through the late 1990s. I was in the Crawford Boxes for the worst defeat in franchise history, Game 5 of the 2005 NLCS, only to finally see the team win its first NL Pennant two nights later. I’ve been able to see a lot of great talent pass through the organization.
A lot of my heart is wrapped up in this team if that hasn’t been made clear yet. There’s a bias that I can’t shake. Being a very cynical person in a lot of ways, I also tend to forecast low often so as not to set myself up for as much disappointment later on.
While I promise to do my best to be objective, you should still factor in some prejudice in what follows. Trouble is, since a lot of that is buried in my subconscious, I can’t really tell you if I’m being overly optimistic or overly pessimistic due to my intimacy with the team. So you’re on your own there.
OFFENSE / DEFENSE
It was another typical Astros season last year. There was a hot spurt in mid-May for a few weeks, but otherwise they dug themselves another deep hole by the All-Star break before streaking towards the end and coming up short. Some will expect me to mention the hurricane in September being a big part of that derailment, and it was. But it’s not why Houston missed the playoffs. I can point to being swept by the Pirates at home in July before the Selig-McLane screw-up with those two games that were played in Milwaukee.
Though the pitching wasn’t great, the offense is my pick for the lion’s share of the blame in 2008. The group finished 11th in both runs and on-base, and a lot of that was due to the inability to draw or the unwillingness to accept a walk. Houston was dead last in the NL and only avoided the MLB cellar because of the Royals in the walks column. They were first-pitch swinging against Daisuke Matsuzaka for crying out loud!
There were also too many dead zones in the mix. Forget the ninth spot for the pitcher for a minute. Michael Bourn, who consistently hit at the top of the order, and Brad Ausmus down at the bottom, combined for a sub.-300 mark between them.
Tack on Hunter Pence’s .318 and Miguel Tejada’s .314 marks not far above the .300 mark, and it’s a recipe for inconsistency and disaster in an NL lineup that really has just eight spots to begin with.
Ausmus is gone, his catcher’s slot now being battled for by Humberto Quintero (.270 OB% in 2008) and J.R. Towles (.250). Tejada will be the token distraction for the media all season when they feel the need to bring up steroids. Pence seems a certainty to improve; Bourn may not ever be much and it wouldn’t surprise me if we don’t eventually see Darin Erstad and Jason Michaels sharing some OF duty in Houston.
The infield is where the club as taken a hit with Ty Wiggington now gone. No way in hell that Geoff Blum and Aaron Boone combine for more than about 12 homers and a mid-700s OPS mark. Kaz Matsui is going to have to prove he’s got the ability to go out there and play 135+ games without breaking down. He’s never played more than 114 games in a season, so there’s probably no reason to think he will stay healthy this year. And with the infield shorter on depth now with Mark Loretta leaving, it doesn’t look good.
Lance Berkman and Carlos Lee are genuine hitters. But they have little else around them.
PITCHING
There’s Roy Oswalt, and that’s about it. Some will counter with having Jose Valvomit, er Valverde in the pen, so let’s begin with the relief corps.
There were some good moments and bad moments last year. Valverde was so volatile, getting off to an incredibly horrible start and suffering through another embarrassing meltdown in one of the post All-Star Game losses to the Pirates earlier, getting tagged for six in a third of an inning. He’s susceptible to the long ball as far as closer go, 10 in 72 frames, but on the long haul he was very good. Doug Brocail bore a brunt of setup work and is back and about to turn 42 this May. Tim Byrdak and Geoff Geary did well in their roles, and are back with LaTroy Hawkins who was lights out – oops, shouldn’t use that term – after he signed on. Plus Wesley Wright had his moments as a Rule V pickup. Overall, the bullpen wasn’t that bad and could return intact depending on spring results.
Roy O got off to a bad start and had an ERA over 5.00 through mid-June only to finish at 3.54 and make at least 32 starts for the fifth straight season despite having several pushed back here and there with some injuries. Wandy Rodriguez had his moments, but failed to even reach the 140-IP mark last season. Brandon Backe was horrible, Brian Moehler was decent but not exactly who you want to be hanging your 3-4 hat on in any rotation. And the club failed in its attempts to retain Randy Wolf, who was 6-2 after a July trade, or sign free agent Braden Looper, the two most significant players they felt they could afford.
Mike Hampton and Russ Ortiz are in camp, big whoop there. Chris Sampson and Fernando Nieve are two more options. Yep, things pretty much suck in the rotation and may not wind up much better down in the pen.
SCHEDULE
The division that has constantly been screwed around with the most as far as the schedule goes is the NL Central. Not only do they not play the same number of home and away games with each other, they don’t even play the same number of games within the division. Some teams play 77 NLC games, others like the Astros play 78, and others play 80.
Seriously, if the Yankees and the Red Sox met 9-6 (Home Away) either way, do you think we’d ever hear the end of it? Here’s how the Houston schedule runs this year:
- 19 of first 22 vs. NLC
- 24-26 (Home-Away) thru May; 65-66 thru August
- 39-39 (Home-Away) vs. NLC teams; 9-6 vs. AL; 3-6 vs. Arizona
- Close on the road with final 7 at Philadelphia and NY Mets. Why in the hell are the Astros closing with an Eastern road swing? Again, let me know when the Mets end on the road at Colorado and Pittsburgh the last week of the season.
Houston averaged 77.8 wins over the five simulations. The high was 86 – What they hit in 2008 – and the low was 69, a pretty good spread with 78 three other times in the middle. My gut tells me the keys to this team are twofold: Both Bourn and Pence have excellent seasons in the lineup and in the field, and two more starters besides Oswalt have 32 starts and ERAs under 4.20.
The Astros are +1615 to win the NL at The Greek, same as the Marlins and a little better than the Brewers. I’ll be putting a little on that and the +4050 to win it all, but that’s just the fan in me talking. I think.
