2009 MLB Preview: Los Angeles Angels
LA Angels an easy bet in AL West
After coasting to a 21-game margin in the AL West in 2008, the Los Angeles Angels will not have quite as easy a time this year, but they will win their third straight and fifth in six years.
The Halos are as good a team as any to start this year’s roundup with for a few reasons. First, even though they were booted from the playoffs in the first round last year, again, by the Red Sox, again, they did lead the majors in the regular season with 100 wins.
Secondly, though I don’t think they will lead the bigs again this year in the dubya column, they should still be the best of their division so we might as well start off with a winner just to keep from boring everyone talking about the Pirates, Orioles or Nationals.
And finally, though I don’t think they will dominate their division like they did in 2008 when the Rangers were the closest to them in the NL West at 21 games back, the fact they may not have a lot of competition for the division title again will give me a chance to explain a little about the simulation program that I use to help formulate my win projections. And they’re a great example of how you have to take the simulated win totals with a grain of salt and combine them with some thinking on your own.
The sim program I use was one given to me by a programmer who developed it back in 2000-2001. I provided about 500 hours of statistical research and boring data entry projections and my payment was a copy of the program. I mean hell, it’s not like he could afford to pay me at the time, and since I dig researching stats and don’t mind data entry, it was a fair swap from my end.
The program is only as smart as the data its fed. And the one major drawback, especially when running a full season like I do, is the lack of human in-game managerial decisions. It takes me about 45 hours or so to input stats – I use a three year average with my own projections for declines or progressions – and another 15 hours or so to get the schedule in place. After that it can simulate an entire season (2,430 games) in about two-&-a-half hours. I run five simulations over the course of 5-6 days. To play a single game one at bat at a time takes about 10 minutes, so you can see why I don’t play each game individually. If I did, I wouldn’t have these projections until after this year’s World Series champs were known.
This year’s simulations should be taken with a few extra grains of salt for the reason that so many top-line free agents were still unsigned when I started running the program last weekend. Take the Angels, for example. Their sims were run with Gary Matthews Jr playing in the outfield instead of Bobby Abreu who was signed just this week. Enough of that; let’s get moving.
OFFENSE / DEFENSE
Did I mention Abreu was signed recently? He will basically fill the void left by Garret Anderson who is still out on the market. Abreu is a little different player than Anderson – more speed, for one thing – and will hit higher up in the order than Anderson. Assuming Chone Figgins leads off, a very good assumption, Abreu’s lefty bat will also open up a hole on the right side of the infield when Figgins gets on, and that could lead to Figgins not running as much as in the past.
Abreu’s arrival also gives manager Mike Scioscia the luxury of using Vladimir Guerrero at DH often, giving the big guy a little rest at times after some knee surgery. It also means they could shop reserve outfielder Reggie Willits this spring since they are deep in the OF now with Abreu, Guerrero, Torii Hunter and Juan Rivera, plus Matthews Jr.
On the infield the Angels are also minus Mark Teixeira after he came over from Atlanta last July and has now moved on to the Bronx with a free agent deal with the Yankees. That would seem to hand the 1B job to Kendry Morales who is one of my keys. The middle infield tandem, shortstop Erick Aybar and second sacker Howie Kendrick, are also going to be crucial after both missed significant time in 2008 with injuries.
Along with being deep in the outfield, the Angels have a pretty nice tandem behind the plate in Jeff Mathis and Mike Napoli. Scioscia, who knows a thing or two about catching, likes Mathis’ defense, but he will have to hit better than a year ago when he batted a pitiful .194. Napoli is coming off a shoulder scope after banging 20 taters in 2008. This depth could also provide LA with some trade bait this spring.
PITCHING
The bread & butter for the team in 2008, two key members are gone and their replacements will get a lot of scrutiny when this campaign cranks up. Francisco Rodriguez set a new MLB record in ’08 with 62 saves, and along with Scot Shields, Darren Oliver and Jose Arredondo, the Angels basically played a 6-inning game last year with such a fine pen.
But K-Rod is now gone, heading east to the Mets this offseason as a free agent with Brian Fuentes taking his place after recording 115 saves the past four seasons closing games in Colorado. The southpaw Fuentes will face a lot of pressure replacing Rodriguez, possibly more pressure than any closer in the game outside of whoever ends up taking over the same role for the Padres after Trevor Hoffman’s departure.
Interesting to note here is that the Angels have another Francisco Rodriguez on their roster this spring, though this one isn’t expected to make the team out of camp.
In the rotation, Jon Garland has departed for Arizona to open a spot at the back end of LA’s starting mix. The first four – John Lackey, Jered Weaver, Ervin Santana and Joe Saunders – should be good enough for most Angels fans not to really notice Garland is gone. In line to take the 5-slot in the rotation is Dustin Moseley and young Venezuelan Anthony Ortega.
And if you’re wondering about Kelvim Escobar, he is making progress from should surgery last July but at this time is not being counted on for Opening Day. When he does return, he could begin down in the pen at least until he gets his legs back.
SCHEDULE
A new segment I’m adding to these previews this year is a look at each team’s schedule and any possible advantages or disadvantages a team may have. The MLB schedule has been a total mess for a while now, and I’ll save you my rant about it…for now. I don’t envy the job of the schedule maker, but at the same time I also don’t think that just because a job is tough is any excuse it shouldn’t be done right.
The Halos averaged 88 wins in the five simulations, with a high of 92 and a low of 81. With Abreu now, I can only guesstimate they might have averaged 90. Win totals are not up yet, so it’s hard to use those sim stats when thinking of Overs/Unders at this time.
The Greek has LA at +525 to win the American League Pennant, sandwiched between Tampa and Cleveland in the 4-slot on the futures list. The Angels also sit No. 4 at The Greek in World Series futures drawing a +885 price.
After coasting to a 21-game margin in the AL West in 2008, the Los Angeles Angels will not have quite as easy a time this year, but they will win their third straight and fifth in six years.
The Halos are as good a team as any to start this year’s roundup with for a few reasons. First, even though they were booted from the playoffs in the first round last year, again, by the Red Sox, again, they did lead the majors in the regular season with 100 wins.
Secondly, though I don’t think they will lead the bigs again this year in the dubya column, they should still be the best of their division so we might as well start off with a winner just to keep from boring everyone talking about the Pirates, Orioles or Nationals.
And finally, though I don’t think they will dominate their division like they did in 2008 when the Rangers were the closest to them in the NL West at 21 games back, the fact they may not have a lot of competition for the division title again will give me a chance to explain a little about the simulation program that I use to help formulate my win projections. And they’re a great example of how you have to take the simulated win totals with a grain of salt and combine them with some thinking on your own.
The sim program I use was one given to me by a programmer who developed it back in 2000-2001. I provided about 500 hours of statistical research and boring data entry projections and my payment was a copy of the program. I mean hell, it’s not like he could afford to pay me at the time, and since I dig researching stats and don’t mind data entry, it was a fair swap from my end.
The program is only as smart as the data its fed. And the one major drawback, especially when running a full season like I do, is the lack of human in-game managerial decisions. It takes me about 45 hours or so to input stats – I use a three year average with my own projections for declines or progressions – and another 15 hours or so to get the schedule in place. After that it can simulate an entire season (2,430 games) in about two-&-a-half hours. I run five simulations over the course of 5-6 days. To play a single game one at bat at a time takes about 10 minutes, so you can see why I don’t play each game individually. If I did, I wouldn’t have these projections until after this year’s World Series champs were known.
This year’s simulations should be taken with a few extra grains of salt for the reason that so many top-line free agents were still unsigned when I started running the program last weekend. Take the Angels, for example. Their sims were run with Gary Matthews Jr playing in the outfield instead of Bobby Abreu who was signed just this week. Enough of that; let’s get moving.
OFFENSE / DEFENSE
Did I mention Abreu was signed recently? He will basically fill the void left by Garret Anderson who is still out on the market. Abreu is a little different player than Anderson – more speed, for one thing – and will hit higher up in the order than Anderson. Assuming Chone Figgins leads off, a very good assumption, Abreu’s lefty bat will also open up a hole on the right side of the infield when Figgins gets on, and that could lead to Figgins not running as much as in the past.
Abreu’s arrival also gives manager Mike Scioscia the luxury of using Vladimir Guerrero at DH often, giving the big guy a little rest at times after some knee surgery. It also means they could shop reserve outfielder Reggie Willits this spring since they are deep in the OF now with Abreu, Guerrero, Torii Hunter and Juan Rivera, plus Matthews Jr.
On the infield the Angels are also minus Mark Teixeira after he came over from Atlanta last July and has now moved on to the Bronx with a free agent deal with the Yankees. That would seem to hand the 1B job to Kendry Morales who is one of my keys. The middle infield tandem, shortstop Erick Aybar and second sacker Howie Kendrick, are also going to be crucial after both missed significant time in 2008 with injuries.
Along with being deep in the outfield, the Angels have a pretty nice tandem behind the plate in Jeff Mathis and Mike Napoli. Scioscia, who knows a thing or two about catching, likes Mathis’ defense, but he will have to hit better than a year ago when he batted a pitiful .194. Napoli is coming off a shoulder scope after banging 20 taters in 2008. This depth could also provide LA with some trade bait this spring.
PITCHING
The bread & butter for the team in 2008, two key members are gone and their replacements will get a lot of scrutiny when this campaign cranks up. Francisco Rodriguez set a new MLB record in ’08 with 62 saves, and along with Scot Shields, Darren Oliver and Jose Arredondo, the Angels basically played a 6-inning game last year with such a fine pen.
But K-Rod is now gone, heading east to the Mets this offseason as a free agent with Brian Fuentes taking his place after recording 115 saves the past four seasons closing games in Colorado. The southpaw Fuentes will face a lot of pressure replacing Rodriguez, possibly more pressure than any closer in the game outside of whoever ends up taking over the same role for the Padres after Trevor Hoffman’s departure.
Interesting to note here is that the Angels have another Francisco Rodriguez on their roster this spring, though this one isn’t expected to make the team out of camp.
In the rotation, Jon Garland has departed for Arizona to open a spot at the back end of LA’s starting mix. The first four – John Lackey, Jered Weaver, Ervin Santana and Joe Saunders – should be good enough for most Angels fans not to really notice Garland is gone. In line to take the 5-slot in the rotation is Dustin Moseley and young Venezuelan Anthony Ortega.
And if you’re wondering about Kelvim Escobar, he is making progress from should surgery last July but at this time is not being counted on for Opening Day. When he does return, he could begin down in the pen at least until he gets his legs back.
SCHEDULE
A new segment I’m adding to these previews this year is a look at each team’s schedule and any possible advantages or disadvantages a team may have. The MLB schedule has been a total mess for a while now, and I’ll save you my rant about it…for now. I don’t envy the job of the schedule maker, but at the same time I also don’t think that just because a job is tough is any excuse it shouldn’t be done right.
- 13 of first 19 games at home
- 6 of first 32 at home vs. Boston, a team that has had the Angels’ number recently
- The Angels are 27-24 (Home-Away) through May, and 65-66 through August
- They won’t play their first home series vs. Texas until Jul 6-8
- 6-3 (Home-Away) vs. Boston; 6-4 vs. New York Yankees; 4-6 vs. Baltimore; 3-7 vs. Kansas City. Getting more home games against the Red Sox and Yanks while fewer at home vs. the O’s and Royals should be a scheduling advantage for LA.
The Halos averaged 88 wins in the five simulations, with a high of 92 and a low of 81. With Abreu now, I can only guesstimate they might have averaged 90. Win totals are not up yet, so it’s hard to use those sim stats when thinking of Overs/Unders at this time.
The Greek has LA at +525 to win the American League Pennant, sandwiched between Tampa and Cleveland in the 4-slot on the futures list. The Angels also sit No. 4 at The Greek in World Series futures drawing a +885 price.
just another dig at Harvey). Love how he and guys like Fredi Gonzalez and Ron Gardenhire consistently get a lot out of whatever hand they're dealt. The Halos have a solid roster, so it's not like Scioscia isn't starting with great talent anyway, but like the way he has his team play the game.
