Pitchers & Catchers report as steroids story won't die
Pitchers & Catchers report as steroids story won't die
While the average fan and square bettor can't get enough of the steroids issue, sharp cappers are well past that topic and diving headfirst into roster changes from last season. It might not seem that long since the Phillies topped the Rays in a sloppy, weather-interrupted World Series, but the new season is now upon us as pitchers and catchers begin to report to training camps in Florida and Arizona.
A fool and his money are soon parted – and it doesn’t get much more foolish than Major League Baseball. No other sport delivers for sharp handicappers like America’s national pastime. The NFL betting public might be getting smarter, but that’s hardly a problem when dealing with the archetypical baseball fan.
That’s the view from my side. The opposing view is that statistical analysis is for nerds, that the traditions of the game are sacred, and that having Alex Rodriguez on your team makes you lose. This cultural divide has been around long before baseball – think of Galileo versus the Vatican. Now think how much money you could have made investing in telescopes.
That opportunity has come and gone, but baseball has its equivalents. The Boston Red Sox have won two World Series since Yale graduate Theo Epstein was hired as GM. Epstein was a disciple of Billy Beane, the Oakland Athletics GM who coaxed 100-win seasons earlier this decade out of a tiny payroll. Beane is also the central figure of Michael Lewis’ Moneyball: The Art of Winning an Unfair Game. I cannot recommend this book enough.
So, while pitchers and catchers report for training camp and the usual suspects spend their time talking steroids, sharp handicappers are paying attention to what’s really supposed to matter: the game itself.
Teams who have chosen to rebuild by hiring nerdy front offices are much more likely to achieve success. That would include the A’s themselves, who are coming off a bad year at 75-86 (minus-5.07 units) after selling high on Dan Haren, Joe Blanton, Nick Swisher and Mark Kotsay in midseason. Keep an eye as well on the Pittsburgh Pirates, the Washington Nationals, the Seattle Mariners and the San Diego Padres to get a leg up on the betting odds.
The pitchers are the most important players to handicap, so let’s take a trip around the league and see what’s new on the mound.
Seattle Mariners
The M’s (61-101 last year, minus-35.98 units) are going to have a much different look in their first season under new GM Jack Zduriencik. He engineered a big three-way trade with the Mets and Indians that brought Aaron Heilman to Seattle, then flipped Heilman last month to the Cubs for lefty Garrett Olson and middle infielder Ronny Cedeño.
Olson is a flyball pitcher (0.77 career groundball/flyball ratio) who will benefit from pitching at Safeco Field, especially with the defensive upgrade of former Cleveland OF Franklin Gutierrez (plus-27 FRAR last year). Cedeño had a plus-24 FRAR in his one full season with the Cubs in 2006; he shores up Seattle’s woeful infield defense, which reveals the running theme of Zduriencik’s offseason moves. All Mariners pitchers should see their numbers improve – as should Under bettors.
Arizona Diamondbacks
The Snakes (82-80, minus-15.28 units) are taking a gamble on Jon Garland. The L.A. Angels went 20-12 last year with Garland on the mound for a profit of 6.74 units, but that was despite his 4.90 ERA (5.74 tRA) and a 1.51 WHIP. He’s not likely to get any better at age 29, and as a slight flyball pitcher (0.99 GB/FB) is a bad fit for Chase Field.
Oakland Athletics
Veteran reliever Russ Springer is now a member of the A’s. This is an excellent move for Oakland. Springer’s OPS against was below .600 in each of his two seasons with the St. Louis Cardinals, and his GB/FB ratio of 0.46 will produce plenty of outs in the yawning foul ground at the freshly de-sponsored Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum.
The A’s followed up this move by snagging righty reliever Michael Wuertz from the Cubs. This is a classic Beane move; Wuertz is a rare slider specialist, throwing it over 60 percent of the time. It’s a bit risky, since his 3.63 ERA last year masks a 1.43 WHIP and a 5.43 tRA. But at a mere $1.1 million in 2009, Wuertz is a value addition to Oakland’s middle relief. This is the part of the game where handicappers make their money – every pitch counts, yet the betting public is almost completely ignorant of middle relievers. Their loss is your gain.
While the average fan and square bettor can't get enough of the steroids issue, sharp cappers are well past that topic and diving headfirst into roster changes from last season. It might not seem that long since the Phillies topped the Rays in a sloppy, weather-interrupted World Series, but the new season is now upon us as pitchers and catchers begin to report to training camps in Florida and Arizona.
A fool and his money are soon parted – and it doesn’t get much more foolish than Major League Baseball. No other sport delivers for sharp handicappers like America’s national pastime. The NFL betting public might be getting smarter, but that’s hardly a problem when dealing with the archetypical baseball fan.
That’s the view from my side. The opposing view is that statistical analysis is for nerds, that the traditions of the game are sacred, and that having Alex Rodriguez on your team makes you lose. This cultural divide has been around long before baseball – think of Galileo versus the Vatican. Now think how much money you could have made investing in telescopes.
That opportunity has come and gone, but baseball has its equivalents. The Boston Red Sox have won two World Series since Yale graduate Theo Epstein was hired as GM. Epstein was a disciple of Billy Beane, the Oakland Athletics GM who coaxed 100-win seasons earlier this decade out of a tiny payroll. Beane is also the central figure of Michael Lewis’ Moneyball: The Art of Winning an Unfair Game. I cannot recommend this book enough.
So, while pitchers and catchers report for training camp and the usual suspects spend their time talking steroids, sharp handicappers are paying attention to what’s really supposed to matter: the game itself.
Teams who have chosen to rebuild by hiring nerdy front offices are much more likely to achieve success. That would include the A’s themselves, who are coming off a bad year at 75-86 (minus-5.07 units) after selling high on Dan Haren, Joe Blanton, Nick Swisher and Mark Kotsay in midseason. Keep an eye as well on the Pittsburgh Pirates, the Washington Nationals, the Seattle Mariners and the San Diego Padres to get a leg up on the betting odds.
The pitchers are the most important players to handicap, so let’s take a trip around the league and see what’s new on the mound.
Seattle Mariners
The M’s (61-101 last year, minus-35.98 units) are going to have a much different look in their first season under new GM Jack Zduriencik. He engineered a big three-way trade with the Mets and Indians that brought Aaron Heilman to Seattle, then flipped Heilman last month to the Cubs for lefty Garrett Olson and middle infielder Ronny Cedeño.
Olson is a flyball pitcher (0.77 career groundball/flyball ratio) who will benefit from pitching at Safeco Field, especially with the defensive upgrade of former Cleveland OF Franklin Gutierrez (plus-27 FRAR last year). Cedeño had a plus-24 FRAR in his one full season with the Cubs in 2006; he shores up Seattle’s woeful infield defense, which reveals the running theme of Zduriencik’s offseason moves. All Mariners pitchers should see their numbers improve – as should Under bettors.
Arizona Diamondbacks
The Snakes (82-80, minus-15.28 units) are taking a gamble on Jon Garland. The L.A. Angels went 20-12 last year with Garland on the mound for a profit of 6.74 units, but that was despite his 4.90 ERA (5.74 tRA) and a 1.51 WHIP. He’s not likely to get any better at age 29, and as a slight flyball pitcher (0.99 GB/FB) is a bad fit for Chase Field.
Oakland Athletics
Veteran reliever Russ Springer is now a member of the A’s. This is an excellent move for Oakland. Springer’s OPS against was below .600 in each of his two seasons with the St. Louis Cardinals, and his GB/FB ratio of 0.46 will produce plenty of outs in the yawning foul ground at the freshly de-sponsored Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum.
The A’s followed up this move by snagging righty reliever Michael Wuertz from the Cubs. This is a classic Beane move; Wuertz is a rare slider specialist, throwing it over 60 percent of the time. It’s a bit risky, since his 3.63 ERA last year masks a 1.43 WHIP and a 5.43 tRA. But at a mere $1.1 million in 2009, Wuertz is a value addition to Oakland’s middle relief. This is the part of the game where handicappers make their money – every pitch counts, yet the betting public is almost completely ignorant of middle relievers. Their loss is your gain.