Todays Action, 2009 M.L.B. Thread

[hufster]

Last minute addition :

TOR -1.5 +185

I think Bucholtz will struggle this evening and nobody likes their first game in the dome. Romero has been rocked by Boston, but I think we'll see him in better for tonight.

[therber2]

Yesterday : COL -1.5 +135 W


CHW -1.5 +125 risk 2 units

I am playing against Baltimore on the road in this one. I like this pitching matchup quite a bit. Berken has stuggled mightily against lesser offenses and Danks has performed solidly against the Orioles.

CHC -135 win 1 unit

Stammen has been awful and Zambrano has pretty solid number vs. the Nats lineup. The Cubbies like racking up the wins vs. inferior teams.

COL -1.5 +105

The wheels are falling off in San Diego. They are having some mighty struggles and I don't forsee them righting themselves against the hot bats of the Rockies. They put up a ton of runs last night and have quite favorable numbers against Geer. Jimenez has been very good against the Padres in the past and should continue tonight.

SEA -140 risk 2 units

I see a lot of value in this play. Hernendez has been very good on the road and Ohka is serviceable at best. Cleveland is outmatched and I think it shows tonight.

Let's get'em tonight boys

Record : 22-17-1 +6.59u

Do not underestimate the HUFSTER.

[pocketlint]

Dodgers are efuuck-wads ....as simple as that

[chubber911]

Tough break tonight, TA. Best of luck for Saturday!

[TodaysAction]

Tough break tonight, TA. Best of luck for Saturday!

No worries.

[TodaysAction]

For those who do the fantasy basketball leagues, here are a couple names that should have productive numbers this season: Trevor Ariza and David Anderson.

[TodaysAction]

Fridays selections went 5-6-0 and took 4.30 units from the accounts. Saturday's "to do" list will be posted later this morning.

[curious]

SFO -150 1.5 to win 1
DET +190 1 to win 1.9
BOS +120 1 to win 1.2
CIN -120 1.2 to win 1
PHI -120 1.2 to win 1
MIN/TEX UNDER 11 -110 1.1 to win 1
TAM +105 1 to win 1.05
CWS -165 1.65 to win 1
ARI/STL UNDER 7 1/2 -110 1.1 to win 1
COL -150 1.5 to win 1
LAA -120 1.2 to win 1
LOS -160 1.6 to win 1
ATL -190 1.9 to win 1
SEA -155 1.55 to win 1

10-4 +5 units.

Angels looked REALLY bad. Tigers didn't pan out. Close but no cigar. Giants lost s squeaker. Astros are doing their usual Dr. Jekyll / Mr. Hyde pre/post all star break. Not sure what the Dodgers story is.

[TodaysAction]

10-4 +5 units.

Angels looked REALLY bad. Tigers didn't pan out. Close but no cigar. Giants lost s squeaker. Astros are doing their usual Dr. Jekyll / Mr. Hyde pre/post all star break. Not sure what the Dodgers story is.

Real nice night curious. The rain delay didn't help or DET keeping Joel Z. in there after seeing he didn't have 'it' AGAIN. LAD struggling against the Central this year - might want to give post 2,106 on page 61 a quick read for some other tidbits.

[TodaysAction]

Part I
DET,
TOR,

[TodaysAction]

Part II
METS,
BALT,

[shoebox]

Balt for you, Balt for me... I might have to up the anty!!

[pocketlint]

CWS
PIT
ATL

[TodaysAction]

Balt for you, Balt for me... I might have to up the anty!!

Sh!

[TodaysAction]

CWS
PIT
ATL

for sharing `em.

[hufster]

CHW -1.5 +125 risk 2 units W
CHC -135 win 1 unit W
COL -1.5 +105 W
SEA -140 risk 2 units W
TOR -1.5 +185 L

4-1 adding 4.98 units for this Friday night. Nice outcome to return to after a late night.

Today I like the following :

FLA -122

I don't see the Marlins getting swept in this series and I think this pitching matchup is their best chance to get a win. My numbers point toward the fish in this one.

COL -113 win 2 units

Letting this one ride. Hammel, like many of the Rockies' pitchers this year, take full advantage of being away from Coors field and puts up excellent numbers (1.05 road WHIP). Correia hasn't been too shabby either, but I'll continue to bank on the lack of run support. If you look at this game outside the mentality of "the Padres are bound to win sometime", this line has some serious value.

TEX -1.5 +165 risk 1.5 units

My mental equation looks something like this :

Better pitcher + MIN % of consecutive road Ws + TEX % of consecutive home Ls = Ol' Fashion Texas Beatdown

CIN -111 risk 1.5 units

All signs point to the Reds on this one. Harang outperforms Parra by a significant amount in totals, home/road, and vs. their respective opponents. The Brewers score more on average on the road than the Reds do at home, but the Reds are actually outhitting the Brew Crew over their last 3 games. I'll take the home team at a fair price.


Record : 26-18-1 +11.57u

[hufster]

Balt for you, Balt for me... I might have to up the anty!!

For what its worth, I saw value in the O's today as well. Really hope they pull this one out for you guys and to solidify a nice play on the Sox for me tomorrow!

[dvb02]

Part II
METS,
BALT,

TA, what is your feeling on SEA today? I know you have a current play to see if they close out the series play from 2 days ago. Just curious.

[TodaysAction]

CHW -1.5 +125 risk 2 units W
CHC -135 win 1 unit W
COL -1.5 +105 W
SEA -140 risk 2 units W
TOR -1.5 +185 L

4-1 adding 4.98 units for this Friday night. Nice outcome to return to after a late night.

Today I like the following :

FLA -122

I don't see the Marlins getting swept in this series and I think this pitching matchup is their best chance to get a win. My numbers point toward the fish in this one.

COL -113 win 2 units

Letting this one ride. Hammel, like many of the Rockies' pitchers this year, take full advantage of being away from Coors field and puts up excellent numbers (1.05 road WHIP). Correia hasn't been too shabby either, but I'll continue to bank on the lack of run support. If you look at this game outside the mentality of "the Padres are bound to win sometime", this line has some serious value.

TEX -1.5 +165 risk 1.5 units

My mental equation looks something like this :

Better pitcher + MIN % of consecutive road Ws + TEX % of consecutive home Ls = Ol' Fashion Texas Beatdown

CIN -111 risk 1.5 units

All signs point to the Reds on this one. Harang outperforms Parra by a significant amount in totals, home/road, and vs. their respective opponents. The Brewers score more on average on the road than the Reds do at home, but the Reds are actually outhitting the Brew Crew over their last 3 games. I'll take the home team at a fair price.


Record : 26-18-1 +11.57u

Great job yesterday! May good fortune find it's way to you again tonight.

[TodaysAction]

TA, what is your feeling on SEA today? I know you have a current play to see if they close out the series play from 2 days ago. Just curious.

I liked SEA prior to the series even after they dropped game one. Nothing has changed. Had I not made something off/from that series already, there would be some on it. If they don't win tonight, I'll end up being down 2.25 units but if they do, it's 9.25 units to the good.

[shoebox]

our streak ended, O well balt had their chances

[TodaysAction]

Part III
WA,
SF,
FL,
PHI/FL,
AZ,
KC,

[pocketlint]

Part II
METS,
BALT,

i want your reaction here t.a.

how do you feel here with baltimore this afternoon?

since they were beaten by a run....does this go in your book as an-almost-win game


or


are there no almost-win games in your notebook.....just wins and losses?

i mean ...do you essentially summarize this game as "Well, I wasn't off by much!".

If the CWS had beaten the Orioles by say 8-3 would the game go differently into your notebook as to how off you were on this one.

This has always intrigued in my own wagering behavior.

If you didnt understand the question I can elaborate !!

[TodaysAction]

i want your reaction here t.a.

how do you feel here with baltimore this afternoon?

since they were beaten by a run....does this go in your book as an-almost-win game


or


are there no almost-win games in your notebook.....just wins and losses?

i mean ...do you essentially summarize this game as "Well, I wasn't off by much!".

If the CWS had beaten the Orioles by say 8-3 would the game go differently into your notebook as to how off you were on this one.

This has always intrigued in my own wagering behavior.

If you didnt understand the question I can elaborate !!

Hey pocketlint,

Getting an almost win is like being a little bit pregnant - in other words, either you are or you're not. Each game goes in the ledger in the lost, pushed or won column. I also keep a log that has my game notes for each game. Might not be how others do it, but it works for me.

[pocketlint]

O.K. I expected you to reason it that way.

No qualms here.

So you dont mistrust the way your system has asked you to go with Orioles as opposed to the Sox?


I can understand how one cannot blame their system in case of delayed games or some other kind of eventualities but when it comes to straight forward losses how does the system not take the blame for this?

Or are you saying your system has been traditionally been more accurate with certain teams as opposed to others?

I just want to know how you reconcile a loss when it happens ( or a win when it happens ).

You've told me long ago in the NHL thread that you DONT HEDGE AGAINST OTHER WAGERS MADE TO EVEN OUT THE RISK.

In that case you expect A WIN-WAGER TO BE AN UNDER WAGER to be an UNDER every time. However as you very well know , there are wagerers who expect to lose say 3 of 8 wagers. Their investment strategy pays out since they are hedged against each other.

Please care to explain.

[TodaysAction]

O.K. I expected you to reason it that way.

No qualms here.

So you dont mistrust the way your system has asked you to go with Orioles as opposed to the Sox?
Not at all. The system called for a play on BALT and it was made. Grant it lost.

I can understand how one cannot blame their system in case of delayed games or some other kind of eventualities but when it comes to straight forward losses how does the system not take the blame for this?
Nobody's system/process/method wins all the games nor does it lose them.

Or are you saying your system has been traditionally been more accurate with certain teams as opposed to others?
What I do works for baseball. Try to remember, I'm not concerned about a "pretty" won loss record. It's way more important, to me, where the units are each night but most importantly where they are at season's end.

I just want to know how you reconcile a loss when it happens ( or a win when it happens ).
After the game is over, one must move forward. You, I or others can not go back in time and change the outcome.

You've told me long ago in the NHL thread that you DONT HEDGE AGAINST OTHER WAGERS MADE TO EVEN OUT THE RISK.

In that case you expect A WIN-WAGER TO BE AN UNDER WAGER to be an UNDER every time. However as you very well know , there are wagerers who expect to lose say 3 of 8 wagers. Their investment strategy pays out since they are hedged against each other.
I think I get what you mean here. If/when I have an under/over wager I expect it to cash - doesn't always work. If/when I straight-up wagers, I expect them to win - again, doesn't always happen that way. Each person has to find a way that works best for them.

Please care to explain.

[TodaysAction]

our streak ended, O well balt had their chances

That they did. Leaving 18 men on base did not help and something that played out to be true today that was mentioned to me long ago was that for each E a team makes, you should consider adding one run to your opponent. Not a big believer of/in that but they lost by one and had one E. with the others tonight.

[TodaysAction]

Part IV
TX,

[TodaysAction]

Part V
SD,
LAD,

[chubber911]

I'm tailing you on both the late night picks. Let's make some cash!

[pocketlint]

I blew on Kansas ....Tampa seemed very resolved to win the game. Psssch

[dvb02]

Part V
SD,
LAD,

Damn........I can't believe I missed these late plays!!!!!!!!!!! Good Luck

[TodaysAction]

I blew on Kansas ....Tampa seemed very resolved to win the game. Psssch

While the outcome is known, I look forward to seeing that game (recorded it) in a few. Sorry it didn't pan out for you but it's only one game. BTW, why didn't you have the same three listed in here as you did in another thread? You should know and realize, there's no issue if you're on the other side of any games posted in here.

[shoebox]

Nice work on the late games, as usual!

[TodaysAction]

I'm tailing you on both the late night picks. Let's make some cash!

Win or lose always remember you and you alone are responsible for your wagers.