Todays Action, 2009 M.L.B. Thread

[TodaysAction]

I wrote off WA long ago. When I saw you on it, I knew something was up. But I had to stick to my rule. It is amazed to me how to capped WA winning the game.

Good morning Rixsaw,


One, I give all the credit in the world for NOT going against your rules - sometimes it's not easy but you have them for a reason. One thing I will share with you and others, especially with the second half around the corner, and although it may seem fairly obvious it is worth exploring. Following the All-Star break, teams will start/continue to go in different directions (good teams continuing to win most times, bad ones dropping them, etc). Something to consider would be match-ups between good teams verses bad teams for the as the playoff hopefuls will be trying to grab the "easy/easier" wins while the stay at home crews will be going through the motions. Pitching match-ups are extremely important - both starters and the bullpens. Like I mentioned earlier, it may seem obvious but I haven't seen enough people (other forums) take advantage of this.

[TodaysAction]

Another great call tonight TA, well done

Belated thank you OperatorX.

10-5 today
Adding +7.88 units

Record: 80-64-1 55.5% (+22.82 units)

Thanks for the TB play by the way TA congrats on that. I put a few units separate on that one, and a couple on the series which is looking good so far . Foggy, I told you I'd regret not playing that!! I told you. Hope you guys played my Philly and Texas picks. FYI, the most I'll really ever do is 2-3 units so if you see one of those ya know it might be a good one.

It's what I do but we still have one more to get the win.

5-2 and 7.3 units to add to this week to put me @ +12.5 units.

Congrats to TA , therber2 , Foghorn , Woodman663
If I missed anyone, congrats to you also

Nice to see others do well, thanks for taking time to recognize them.

TEX 1st 5 Innings -115 win 1.5 unit W
BOS -1.5 -116 win 1.5 units L
MIN -123 win 2.5 units W

2-1 yesterday adding 2.26 units back to the total, lets keep that rolling day :

SEA/TEX Under 8 +103 1 unit

Two quality pitchers on the mound tonight. Washburn is especially good at home. The Mariners and their opponents are each averaging only 3.9 runs per game in Seattle. I think the two pitchers will combine to keep this a low scoring affair.

Good luck to all on their pick tonight. Keep up the good work everyone!


Record : 19-17-1 +2.39u

Win, lose or draw, I enjoy reading your concise daily blurb about the game(s). Continued success to you.

I'm on FL/AZ too. Not posting a card today though; too busy. Perhaps tomorrow I will have one. Looks like a good call so far with Washington. I'm starting to like them a bit more. How long do the crappy teams stay crappy. Come on Washington.... Mets. They have to come around sometime

Then you should be happy, right?

@BamaBill, Toronto really should've won and then we would be up in units by a larger margin. But they suck against some bad pitchers for some reason.


@TA, nice call on Washington! I liked them but didn't tail.

thank you but it's not for everyone. BOL today.

[TodaysAction]

CWS +100 (.5 unit)
CWS/MIN 8.5 -120 (1 unit)
TB -186 (1 unit)
TB/OAK 8.5 -120 (1 unit)
KC Royals +1.5 +120 (.5 units)
NYY -140 (.5 unit)
COL/ATL (1 unit)
PIT +1.5 -120 (.5 units)
PIT/PHI 9 -115 (1 unit)
FLA/ARI (.5 unit)

[TodaysAction]

Part I

, ,

SD,
FL/AZ,

More in a minute.

[TodaysAction]

Part II

, DET,
DET,
TOR/BALT,

[hufster]

Det -1.5 -110 2 units

Verlander at home + the Indians success rate of winning back to back on the road.

[curious]

Cardinals +125 1 to win 1.25 (1st game of double header)
Astros -110 1.1 to win 1
Dodgers +110 2 to win 2.2
Twins -130 1.3 to win 1
Rockies -140 1.4 to win 1
Angels +125 1 to win 1.25
Rangers +130 1 to win 1.3

Conditional Play:
Cardinals 2nd game of double header if the Cubs win the first game of the double header (NOTE, this is not an IF bet, we have Cardinals in the 1st game)

Parlay +185 1.62 to win 3
Red Sox -300
Phillies -220
Tigers -205

The Red Sox, Phillies, and Tigers would all be top ML plays for me today but these lines are ridiculous. And, I NEVER win -1 1/2 RL, NEVER. And this is over 3 seasons of playing 5-15 plays every day. It is uncanny how I can pick a team that is going to win by 1 run. LOL. The Giants this year are ridiculous on the -1 1/2 RL compared to the ML. That is beause everyone underestimated them. I have played them -1 1/2 RL 3 times and they won all 3 of those games, by 1 run. It is ridiculous.

[BamaBill67]

NYY
TB
Cin
CWS
Col

Trying out TA's for

[Rixsaw]

T.A...thanks for the pointers. I weight starting pitchers matchup heavily. I have yet to learn how to compare bullpens. I have lost games due to bullpens more often than not. Any help in this area would be greatly appreciated. BOL today. I love Detroit, but too much juice.

[curious]

T.A...thanks for the pointers. I weight starting pitchers matchup heavily. I have yet to learn how to compare bullpens. I have lost games due to bullpens more often than not. Any help in this area would be greatly appreciated. BOL today. I love Detroit, but too much juice.

The way I handicap bullpens is to first figure out who is available for today's game. This is a bit subjective, it is based on the composition of the opposing lineup, how many appearances each pitcher has over the past week, how each pitcher has been used in the past.

Then I look at batter vs pitcher matchup to see if there any lopsided matchups.

Then I look at how the probable relief pitchers have performed in the last 3 days, the last two weeks, and the season after May 1. If this team shows a big away/home differential I look at whether the game is home or away.

I don't look at ERA. I look at situations. Did the bulllpen contribute to the W or L of the game? SV and SVO don't tell this, nor does ERA.

It is a fair amount of work, I don't always do all of it.

If a bullpen has been getting totally hammered the last 3 days I usually stop there. Or if they have been lights out the last 3 days I will stop there.

I also look at how many pitchers have been used over the past few days, the past week, etc. A very high number usually says that the bullpen is not doing its job.

I have wanted a simpler way of doing this comparison but so far have not found one. ERA tells you nothing.

some people like BB to K ratio and HR to plate appearance ratio. You might use these as throw out filter. In other words if the probable relievers for Team A for today's game all have bad BB to K and/or HR to PA ratios you might go against them.

[BamaBill67]

Adding...........

Stl +110 3 units (late game)
NYY -140 adding 2 more units

[woodman663]

SD up 3 runs in the first inning, hopefully Correia can pitch a gem.

[Rixsaw]

Thanks Curious...like you said, it's a fair amount of work.

[woodman663]

Second 3-run HR for the Padres!

[therber2]

My best day

CWS +100 (.5 unit)
CWS/MIN 8.5 -120 (1 unit)
TB -186 (1 unit)
TB/OAK 8.5 -120 (1 unit)
KC Royals +1.5 +120 (.5 units)
NYY -135 (.5 units)
ATL +130 (.5 units)
COL/ATL (1 unit)
PIT +1.5 -120 (.5 units)
PIT/PHI 9 -115 (1 unit)
FLA/ARI (.5 units)
TEX +135 (.5 units)

Record: 82-74-1 52.5% (+15.79 units)

[therber2]

Good to see you here Curious. Excuse me while I go and cry for bit.

[therber2]

Parlay +185 1.62 to win 3
Red Sox -300
Phillies -220
Tigers -205

Congrats on the parlay.

[hufster]

Saturday : SEA/TEX Under 8 +103 1 unit W
Sunday : Det -1.5 -110 2 units W

2-0 for the weekend adding 2.85 units.

TA - nice job on hitting all your large plays today. Particularly happy to see we both hit on the Detroit play.

THerb - Hang in there buddy, lets get off on the right foot after the break .


Record : 21-17-1 +5.24u

[therber2]

Saturday : SEA/TEX Under 8 +103 1 unit W
Sunday : Det -1.5 -110 2 units W

2-0 for the weekend adding 2.85 units.

TA - nice job on hitting all your large plays today. Particularly happy to see we both hit on the Detroit play.

THerb - Hang in there buddy, lets get off on the right foot after the break .


Record : 21-17-1 +5.24u

Thanks Huf, Glad to see you are doing well. Started off on the right foot, and tripped. Not as bad a fall as that last one though so I am still up. Higher highs, lower lows. I have noticed my best days are the days I am not working at the shop. I think I should make it a point to not do wagers or at least as many and as large on those days.

[TodaysAction]

Det -1.5 -110 2 units

Verlander at home + the Indians success rate of winning back to back on the road.

[TodaysAction]

Cardinals +125 1 to win 1.25 (1st game of double header)
Astros -110 1.1 to win 1
Dodgers +110 2 to win 2.2
Twins -130 1.3 to win 1
Rockies -140 1.4 to win 1
Angels +125 1 to win 1.25
Rangers +130 1 to win 1.3

Conditional Play:
Cardinals 2nd game of double header if the Cubs win the first game of the double header (NOTE, this is not an IF bet, we have Cardinals in the 1st game)

Parlay +185 1.62 to win 3
Red Sox -300
Phillies -220
Tigers -205

The Red Sox, Phillies, and Tigers would all be top ML plays for me today but these lines are ridiculous. And, I NEVER win -1 1/2 RL, NEVER. And this is over 3 seasons of playing 5-15 plays every day. It is uncanny how I can pick a team that is going to win by 1 run. LOL. The Giants this year are ridiculous on the -1 1/2 RL compared to the ML. That is beause everyone underestimated them. I have played them -1 1/2 RL 3 times and they won all 3 of those games, by 1 run. It is ridiculous.

Thanks for dropping in curious.

The way I handicap bullpens is to first figure out who is available for today's game. This is a bit subjective, it is based on the composition of the opposing lineup, how many appearances each pitcher has over the past week, how each pitcher has been used in the past.

Then I look at batter vs pitcher matchup to see if there any lopsided matchups.

Then I look at how the probable relief pitchers have performed in the last 3 days, the last two weeks, and the season after May 1. If this team shows a big away/home differential I look at whether the game is home or away.

I don't look at ERA. I look at situations. Did the bulllpen contribute to the W or L of the game? SV and SVO don't tell this, nor does ERA.

It is a fair amount of work, I don't always do all of it.

If a bullpen has been getting totally hammered the last 3 days I usually stop there. Or if they have been lights out the last 3 days I will stop there.

I also look at how many pitchers have been used over the past few days, the past week, etc. A very high number usually says that the bullpen is not doing its job.

I have wanted a simpler way of doing this comparison but so far have not found one. ERA tells you nothing.

some people like BB to K ratio and HR to plate appearance ratio. You might use these as throw out filter. In other words if the probable relievers for Team A for today's game all have bad BB to K and/or HR to PA ratios you might go against them.

Nice explanation how you do the bullpens. One thing I've seen being consistent from various `cappers is knowing the bullpen rotation and how it's been used and also believe that is a good path to follow.

[TodaysAction]

Thanks Curious...like you said, it's a fair amount of work.

Don't kid yourself, even when anyone has their way 'down' it still takes effort, work, etc to put it together day after day after day - which is why I enjoy the All-Star BREAK so much. During that time, I'm able to take my time and do the preliminaries for a couple or three days after the break. Might not work for everyone but it works well enough on this end.

[TodaysAction]

Record: 82-74-1 52.5% (+15.79 units)

Put the gun away theber2. I get the frustration for the day, if you doubt what I'm telling you go back and read the thread and you'll see I had more than my share and it lasted for a little over a month. Things happen for a reason maybe it's a good thing the Summer Classic is here - clear your mind of sports numbers/information during this time and go do something silly-fun (a round of mini-golf, a wave pool, go karting, etc). I was told by a wise man that if one is going to gamble, there will be times when whatever you pick will win and lose for "no valid" reason. During the winning press (increase) your unit to capitalize on this streak and likewise when it's going downhill, cut back on the number of games and unit's size until you have four straight days of profit with no more than four wagers per day. Enjoy the break.

[TodaysAction]

Saturday : SEA/TEX Under 8 +103 1 unit W
Sunday : Det -1.5 -110 2 units W

2-0 for the weekend adding 2.85 units.

TA - nice job on hitting all your large plays today. Particularly happy to see we both hit on the Detroit play.

THerb - Hang in there buddy, lets get off on the right foot after the break .


Record : 21-17-1 +5.24u

Thank you and glad to see you're up for the weekend as well. Enjoy the break.

[TodaysAction]

Games ending Sunday ended up 4-4-0 but were 0.60 unit to the good.

[curious]

Cardinals +125 1 to win 1.25 (1st game of double header)
Astros -110 1.1 to win 1
Dodgers +110 2 to win 2.2
Twins -130 1.3 to win 1
Rockies -140 1.4 to win 1
Angels +125 1 to win 1.25
Rangers +130 1 to win 1.3

Conditional Play:
Cardinals 2nd game of double header if the Cubs win the first game of the double header (NOTE, this is not an IF bet, we have Cardinals in the 1st game)

Parlay +185 1.62 to win 3
Red Sox -300
Phillies -220
Tigers -205

The Red Sox, Phillies, and Tigers would all be top ML plays for me today but these lines are ridiculous. And, I NEVER win -1 1/2 RL, NEVER. And this is over 3 seasons of playing 5-15 plays every day. It is uncanny how I can pick a team that is going to win by 1 run. LOL. The Giants this year are ridiculous on the -1 1/2 RL compared to the ML. That is beause everyone underestimated them. I have played them -1 1/2 RL 3 times and they won all 3 of those games, by 1 run. It is ridiculous.

9-2 on the day, not too shabby.

[solobass]

nice job in the first half TA! yeah the break will be good, great to get away from the glowing laptop screen for a few days. curious you are right on about ERA, it tells you absolutely nothing. also if a team has only one situational lefty and he is not available that changes things in the late stages as well. best of luck in the 2nd half!

[therber2]

NL League -110 (1 unit)
Any opinions on the game here??
Here is my just for fun prediction on the game. (From WillieBee's contest):
RUNS SCORED: 11
BASEHITS: 17
HOME RUNS: 3
STOLEN BASES: 2
ERRORS: 1
STRIKEOUTS: 13
WALKS: 5
DOUBLE PLAYS: 4
LEFT ON BASE: 15

10TH INNING TIEBREAKER (Pick the game's MVP): Pujols

I hope you all have/are having a great gamblers' holiday!

[therber2]

Put the gun away theber2. I get the frustration for the day, if you doubt what I'm telling you go back and read the thread and you'll see I had more than my share and it lasted for a little over a month. Things happen for a reason maybe it's a good thing the Summer Classic is here - clear your mind of sports numbers/information during this time and go do something silly-fun (a round of mini-golf, a wave pool, go karting, etc). I was told by a wise man that if one is going to gamble, there will be times when whatever you pick will win and lose for "no valid" reason. During the winning press (increase) your unit to capitalize on this streak and likewise when it's going downhill, cut back on the number of games and unit's size until you have four straight days of profit with no more than four wagers per day. Enjoy the break.

Gun's away. Lol. No worries my friend. I remember your little down time, and then the hate mail. Glad to see that hasn't been an issue here. My mind is nice and cleared up, and I learned one lesson from this: my good days are when I have the time to really analyze my card, and put the proper weights on the plays, not just .5 unit 1 unit plays (you know what I mean if you understand my system). Goin to the beach today; nice and sunny. Going to hit up a little sports bar I know of for the game tonight.

TA, the quote from your wise man is absolutely correct, and most of us here have experienced the phenomenon. It is what makes the sport what it is. Unpredictability. I don't believe in locks at all or even anything close to them which is why my cards are always so large. Taking into account players not doing what they should have done is one of the biggest things to look for. No stat. will tell you this. Whatever works is what I suggest to anyone. I prefer to use a range of .5-3 units. Something really good needs to be in the works for me to do 4 or 5. For me big cards with strong money management is the way to go. Now how about that money management?? That is what I need to brush up. If I have 60% certainty on a play it is .5; however, I think it would be to my benefit to reduce the little wagers. Take a look at that bad card. Everything on there was .5 and 1 units. That was no good. Next card will be a good one; or I will do my best on it at least.

Thanks guys for the kind words.

[TodaysAction]

Just one for the All-Star Game and it is .

[shoebox]

Killer 1H TA, absolutly amazing job, im sure the 2h will bring even larger and deeper bankrolls....you truely are a class act!!

[dvb02]

Shoe, no play for you tonight??

[Spaceviews]

Best of Luck to all Played A.L + A.L & O-9.5......

[Spaceviews]

Lot of TRUE Wisdom floating around here- A very strong, happy, FRIENDLY, Vibe. VERY REFRESHING!!!

[TodaysAction]

9-2 on the day, not too shabby.

Belated, congrats and well done! May you have more of those days than it's reverse.