Todays Action, 2009 M.L.B. Thread

[TodaysAction]

nice job in the first half TA! yeah the break will be good, great to get away from the glowing laptop screen for a few days. curious you are right on about ERA, it tells you absolutely nothing. also if a team has only one situational lefty and he is not available that changes things in the late stages as well. best of luck in the 2nd half!

Good afternoon solobass,

Sorry for the delay in responding. Thank you, there have been peaks and valleys do this point. Hopefully the good will out-do the bad this half too. Continued success to you, your family et. all.

[TodaysAction]

Gun's away. Lol. No worries my friend. I remember your little down time, and then the hate mail. Glad to see that hasn't been an issue here. My mind is nice and cleared up, and I learned one lesson from this: my good days are when I have the time to really analyze my card, and put the proper weights on the plays, not just .5 unit 1 unit plays (you know what I mean if you understand my system). Goin to the beach today; nice and sunny. Going to hit up a little sports bar I know of for the game tonight.

TA, the quote from your wise man is absolutely correct, and most of us here have experienced the phenomenon. It is what makes the sport what it is. Unpredictability. I don't believe in locks at all or even anything close to them which is why my cards are always so large. Taking into account players not doing what they should have done is one of the biggest things to look for. No stat. will tell you this. Whatever works is what I suggest to anyone. I prefer to use a range of .5-3 units. Something really good needs to be in the works for me to do 4 or 5. For me big cards with strong money management is the way to go. Now how about that money management?? That is what I need to brush up. If I have 60% certainty on a play it is .5; however, I think it would be to my benefit to reduce the little wagers. Take a look at that bad card. Everything on there was .5 and 1 units. That was no good. Next card will be a good one; or I will do my best on it at least.

Thanks guys for the kind words.

Good afternoon theberb2,

I figured it would put a chuckle on your face and wasn't even mildly concerned. As do I and hope nobody ever gets that sort of thing. I have a working knowledge by following how you do things in terms of weight & selection and have ZERO issues for you (or anyone who finds a way that works for them) - sometimes a couple days/nights away from the sport is enough to clear the head from the "wee bee gee bees", other times it takes longer.

I'd be willing to say that anyone who has been wagering for more than three years straight would have experienced it. I have a money management article that I think I saved that would be a good read for everyone. It certainly is not the only way to go but it does work as I went that route (abit small sample) - kind of 'funny' that when I see/read/learn of something like that I will give it a test-run. Some pass, some fail. That's all anyone can do, is try their best.

[TodaysAction]

Killer 1H TA, absolutly amazing job, im sure the 2h will bring even larger and deeper bankrolls....you truely are a class act!!

Thank you shoebox. Despite the highs and lows of the first half, it's still fun. If/when it no longer isn't, it'll be time to call it a season. I hope so as well but things in the second half are not always the same as the first - I know it might seem complicated but it's not meant to be - a good example of this is the firing of the WA manager and how it will effect the team. The players now have to "prove" it wasn't them and as such will always give that extra effort to get it done (or at least for a while). I've found that to be the case in the other three major sports in America. Again, thank you. I am me, for it's all I know how to be. Continued success to you the second half.

[TodaysAction]

Best of Luck to all Played A.L + A.L & O-9.5......

Congrats on hitting the A.L. hopefully you had more on it than on the over.

Lot of TRUE Wisdom floating around here- A very strong, happy, FRIENDLY, Vibe. VERY REFRESHING!!!

Glad you like the feel of the thread. To me this is how all the threads should be, but they are not. There is no chest thumping here, the regular contributors/reads know and realize it won't fly/wash here. I welcome (almost) everyone into the threads I start here in the SBR Forums. While I have not been 'here' long (less than a year), the other seasonal/continual threads I've are pretty much like this one. Keeping it 'light' but mindful towards the daily goal allows people to express themself in a way that works for them. A happy thread, generates more positiveness which in turn causes the (collective) accounts to increase over time. One of the many things I'm digging the hell out of is the way the regulars cap the game and when everyone is on the same team/side/total the outcome has been very positive as we don't cap the games the same way. Continued success to you the second half of the season.

[TodaysAction]

Last nights All-Star selection lost and took one unit from the account.

Passing on tonight's M.L.B. games.

[TodaysAction]

As the second half of the 2009 M.L.B. season kicks off this evening, here are some tidbits that have shown to be worth further exploration.

BOS: At home, in the evening, verses the East has shown to be ‘the correct side’.
NYY: On the carpet are winning at a 78% rate.
TAM: At home have a 2:1 ratio of wins to losses.
TOR: Has a 67% win rate verses the Central.
BALT: Struggles to win in day games

DET: Very poor results when playing the East but thumping the West.
CWS: Their SP ERA is in the top three for the AL.
MN: A tale of two teams (home and away).
KC: Getting close to becoming an auto fade.
CLE: Play against until further notice.

LAA: Been loving the day games and those verses the East.
TX: If they could only duplicate their record verses the West against others.
SEA: If you can add 1' runs to their total, do it.
OAK: Bad as they are, they have winning records against the East & Central

PHI: The hottest team in baseball prior to the break.
FL: Have not gone under 5 (or more) times in a row to date this season.
ATL: As a dog of 130 or more, they are 7-3 to date (closing number).
METS: 19-12 as a favorite (closing number) of 130/higher.
WA: Most likely fades after the newness of the Skipper wears off.

STL: 5-2 when the total is 10+.
MILW: 5-2 the following game after giving up 10+ runs.
CUBS: Home and day games are above average.
HOU: Greater than a 2:1 ration wins/loses verses West
CIN: Following a game when one team did not score the under is 7-4.
PIT: 8-15 SU as a 150+ dog

LAD: Best record in the Majors, but only .500 verses Central
SF: Greater than a 2:1 w/l ratio at home.
CO: 3-1 after being shut out.
AZ: Have not won or lost more than six (6) games in a row.
SD: Despite being nearly an auto-fade, at home they remain above .500.

[TodaysAction]

Thanks in part to the accounts being where they are, things will be jazzed up to build the accounts further. Certainly will not win them all, but won't lose them all either. Once this phase of the season comes to pass, things will revert to normal wagering. Some of todays will be posted shortly with more closer to game time.

[shoebox]

Im backtesting playing the AL east top two teams against the west and the central, gonna look back 5 seasons......

[TodaysAction]

Im backtesting playing the AL east top two teams against the west and the central, gonna look back 5 seasons......

Good afternoon shoebox

The one thing that popped into my head was, I don't think the teams were the same for that period; however I could be mistaken. In any case, you should find that any of the top two teams from the East in that five season span would yield a positive return as a whole. If you were looking for an 'autobet' type thing, filter out the West's division leader for additional returns. Sorry, I don't have those numbers with me nor readily accessible as they are in a climate controlled storage unit along with other past seasons data. Far as the Central goes, if I'm not mistaken there should be a positive return there too. Looking forward to what you turn up and good luck with your wagers tonight.

[therber2]

I am feeling a lot of 's and probably mostly 's today. July has been awful for the prop and it is past due looking at my trends (TA I think I emailed that to you), and you would be up units flat betting the under. I think the All Star Game is going to break that trend, and the law of averages will kick in. Early leans but no plays yet on:
Rockies
Braves
Florida
Angels
CIN/MIL 9.5
LAD/HOU 8
WAS/CUBS 9
aaaand a lot of 's

TA, that is some lethal information you posted up there brutha. Hard to say who will win today so I am being careful. I think I would just wager more on there being more runs/innings than the first half of the season.

By the way I did -1 (1 unit) for the NL in my books (so a push); but I'm seeing I posted up NL 1 unit so one unit down for the All Star Game. Boo hoo.

[CashMoney]

TA....awesome info

[TodaysAction]

I am feeling a lot of 's and probably mostly 's today. July has been awful for the prop and it is past due looking at my trends (TA I think I emailed that to you), and you would be up units flat betting the under. I think the All Star Game is going to break that trend, and the law of averages will kick in. Early leans but no plays yet on:
Rockies
Braves
Florida
Angels
CIN/MIL 9.5
LAD/HOU 8
WAS/CUBS 9
aaaand a lot of 's

TA, that is some lethal information you posted up there brutha. Hard to say who will win today so I am being careful. I think I would just wager more on there being more runs/innings than the first half of the season.

By the way I did -1 (1 unit) for the NL in my books (so a push); but I'm seeing I posted up NL 1 unit so one unit down for the All Star Game. Boo hoo.

Haven't checked the e-mail for a couple hours as I was outdoors working in our garden and yard - pulling weeds, laying new strips, etc - so this gives me something new to read.

There are many stats for each team under certain conditions and while those are nice, there are others that smother them. After a while each person learns what is important to them for/from each team in terms of researching the numbers. Having looked at the slate of games for today, I thought I'd post some that have more relevance.

Start the of the second half is a very exciting time especially when there's a little extra to use to encourage growth.

[TodaysAction]

TA....awesome info

Good evening CashMoney,

Thank for you taking some time to read a portion of the thread. . I share what I can with others when I'm able to. Don't hesitate to add your insights and selections/wagers in here - worry not NOBODY bashes/flames a person when things don't work out as planned, matter of fact people might even encourage you/others a little more. Looking forward to your next post in here.

[specialedbob]

Well, there's the special ed bob way of doing things too, you know..

[TodaysAction]

PHI/FL,
SEA,
SEA,
SEA,
HOU,

[pocketlint]

HOU,

Hmmm....chewing on this one...


still chewing ...

unha...

[Panekkkk]

What's the star?!? lol

[hufster]

Back from the break with a late game play :

COL -1.5 +135

Gaudin has had success in his two starts against the Rockies, but I think the third time around the Rockies bats will get to him. Cook has been solid, especially away from the confines of Coors field. The Rockies hold the advantage with the bats in this one. I see good value in the runline here.

[pocketlint]

no play on astros

[TodaysAction]

Back from the break with a late game play :

COL -1.5 +135

Gaudin has had success in his two starts against the Rockies, but I think the third time around the Rockies bats will get to him. Cook has been solid, especially away from the confines of Coors field. The Rockies hold the advantage with the bats in this one. I see good value in the runline here.

Congrats on your win.

[TodaysAction]

1-3-0 adding 1.60 units to the accounts with one pending.

[dvb02]

1-3-0 adding 1.60 units to the accounts with one pending.

Nice job once again!!!!!!!!

[curious]

Curious Friday July 17

SFO -150 1.5 to win 1
DET +190 1 to win 1.9
BOS +120 1 to win 1.2
CIN -120 1.2 to win 1
PHI -120 1.2 to win 1
MIN/TEX UNDER 11 -110 1.1 to win 1
TAM +105 1 to win 1.05
CWS -165 1.65 to win 1
ARI/STL UNDER 7 1/2 -110 1.1 to win 1
COL -150 1.5 to win 1
LAA -120 1.2 to win 1
LOS -160 1.6 to win 1
ATL -190 1.9 to win 1
SEA -155 1.55 to win 1

[therber2]

Here is one pick for me today for 1.5 units boys:

Florida Marlins +110 (1.5 units)

-Hamels 4.87 ERA; 6.88 ERA last 3 (1.38 WHIP; 1.235 WHIP last 3 starts )
-Ricky Nolasco 5.76 ERA; 3.68 last 3 (1.39 WHIP; .864 WHIP last 3 starts)
-Although the bats might be cold right now, I think think the Marlins can wake up tonight. The start of a 4 game home series with one lost already, but today a very well rested pitcher in, and the thirst for blood. The bullpen is 1.098 WHIP last 3 for the Marlins, and 1.286 for the Phillies so I give them a slight edge there. I hope that the Marlins don't get lazy on their Friday home game which is part of the reason I moved this one down a bit the 1.5 units.

One nice trend I've noticed (that doesn't apply here because of the all star break, but is worth mentioning) is the well played Friday home team loss. If a team has been playing above .500 in the past week, chances are the visiting team will dominate on that Friday.

These two are for you TA: in the last 10 years, FLA is 50% as the underdog against teams "above them" in the second half of the MLB season. FLA is 60% last three years after a home game loss of 4, and roughly the same for the long term situation.

BOL today guys.

[Spaceviews]

Great stats THERBER2! I'm tailing you on this one. I was under the impression that the prop was alot more profitable during the 2nd half of the season due to the "bugs" being worked out. Lost a few units testing that theory out. Col. kinda saved my #ss with the reveres juice. I don't know why (gut) but i doubled up on that one. Anyway I will be testing that theory out again tonight & will share what I find.
AS ALWAYS BEST OF LUCK TO ALL WITH YOUR WAGERS TONIGHT, LETS BREAK A LEG

[hufster]

Yesterday : COL -1.5 +135 W


CHW -1.5 +125 risk 2 units

I am playing against Baltimore on the road in this one. I like this pitching matchup quite a bit. Berken has stuggled mightily against lesser offenses and Danks has performed solidly against the Orioles.

CHC -135 win 1 unit

Stammen has been awful and Zambrano has pretty solid number vs. the Nats lineup. The Cubbies like racking up the wins vs. inferior teams.

COL -1.5 +105

The wheels are falling off in San Diego. They are having some mighty struggles and I don't forsee them righting themselves against the hot bats of the Rockies. They put up a ton of runs last night and have quite favorable numbers against Geer. Jimenez has been very good against the Padres in the past and should continue tonight.

SEA -140 risk 2 units

I see a lot of value in this play. Hernendez has been very good on the road and Ohka is serviceable at best. Cleveland is outmatched and I think it shows tonight.

Let's get'em tonight boys

Record : 22-17-1 +6.59u

[TodaysAction]

Nice job once again!!!!!!!!

[TodaysAction]

SFO -150 1.5 to win 1
DET +190 1 to win 1.9
BOS +120 1 to win 1.2
CIN -120 1.2 to win 1
PHI -120 1.2 to win 1
MIN/TEX UNDER 11 -110 1.1 to win 1
TAM +105 1 to win 1.05
CWS -165 1.65 to win 1
ARI/STL UNDER 7 1/2 -110 1.1 to win 1
COL -150 1.5 to win 1
LAA -120 1.2 to win 1
LOS -160 1.6 to win 1
ATL -190 1.9 to win 1
SEA -155 1.55 to win 1

BOL curious.

[TodaysAction]

Here is one pick for me today for 1.5 units boys:

Florida Marlins +110 (1.5 units)

-Hamels 4.87 ERA; 6.88 ERA last 3 (1.38 WHIP; 1.235 WHIP last 3 starts )
-Ricky Nolasco 5.76 ERA; 3.68 last 3 (1.39 WHIP; .864 WHIP last 3 starts)
-Although the bats might be cold right now, I think think the Marlins can wake up tonight. The start of a 4 game home series with one lost already, but today a very well rested pitcher in, and the thirst for blood. The bullpen is 1.098 WHIP last 3 for the Marlins, and 1.286 for the Phillies so I give them a slight edge there. I hope that the Marlins don't get lazy on their Friday home game which is part of the reason I moved this one down a bit the 1.5 units.

One nice trend I've noticed (that doesn't apply here because of the all star break, but is worth mentioning) is the well played Friday home team loss. If a team has been playing above .500 in the past week, chances are the visiting team will dominate on that Friday.

These two are for you TA: in the last 10 years, FLA is 50% as the underdog against teams "above them" in the second half of the MLB season. FLA is 60% last three years after a home game loss of 4, and roughly the same for the long term situation.

BOL today guys.

&

[TodaysAction]

Yesterday : COL -1.5 +135 W


CHW -1.5 +125 risk 2 units

I am playing against Baltimore on the road in this one. I like this pitching matchup quite a bit. Berken has stuggled mightily against lesser offenses and Danks has performed solidly against the Orioles.

CHC -135 win 1 unit

Stammen has been awful and Zambrano has pretty solid number vs. the Nats lineup. The Cubbies like racking up the wins vs. inferior teams.

COL -1.5 +105

The wheels are falling off in San Diego. They are having some mighty struggles and I don't forsee them righting themselves against the hot bats of the Rockies. They put up a ton of runs last night and have quite favorable numbers against Geer. Jimenez has been very good against the Padres in the past and should continue tonight.

SEA -140 risk 2 units

I see a lot of value in this play. Hernendez has been very good on the road and Ohka is serviceable at best. Cleveland is outmatched and I think it shows tonight.

Let's get'em tonight boys

Record : 22-17-1 +6.59u

with what we agree upon.

[TodaysAction]

Part I
WA,
FL,
CIN,
METS,

[TodaysAction]

Part II
SD,
LAD,
SEA,
OAK,

[TodaysAction]

Part III
PHI/FL,
BOS/TOR,
LAA/OAK,

[chubber911]

Big time bets tonight. Good luck, TA!

[TodaysAction]

Big time bets tonight. Good luck, TA!

Thank you and to you as well.

That's why in part they be posted earlier than normal.