[Love The Action]

MLB 2011 Season Record (for all plays documented on SBR):

265 - 244 = +26.45x

I will be posting all of my MLB plays in this thread for the rest of the 2011 season and every year that follows. I have posted all of my NBA, MLB and WNBA plays in the NBA forum since the end of the NBA regular season and start of the MLB season. However, with the All-Star break hitting, I figured this would be the perfect opportunity to get my MLB-only thread off the ground. Once NFL and NCAAF start, I will have threads devoted to those investment opportunities as well.

For those of you that know me, you know I like to provide in-depth writeups with all of my plays. However, since the birth of my son, time is a little tight. Therefore, I am working on a standard writeup format that I will be using from this point forward. I am a big totals player in all of the sports I handicap (NBA, MLB, WNBA, NFL and NCAAF). However, in baseball, more than any other sport, I will play quite a few sides via the ML. I will also play the -1 RL. Moving forward, I will generally have between 3 - 5 plays on a 15 game card. My units scale will be between 1x - 5x with some very rare plays above 5x.

Here is a link to some of my previous threads with all my documented plays and records.

http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/nba-basket...mpionship.html

http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/nba-basket...-no-under.html

http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/nba-basket...4-23-11-a.html

http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/baseball-h...nals-reds.html

http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/nba-basket...4-25-11-a.html

http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/nba-basket...4-26-11-a.html

http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/nba-basket...eaks-over.html

http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/nba-basket...4-28-11-a.html

My current WNBA record is 33 - 27 = +3.2x
My NBA playoffs record was 48 - 34 = +91x
My NBA 2010 - 2011 regular season record was 294 - 245 = +61.3x (however, I was not posting on SBR for the majority of these plays, so this record cannot count because of its undocumented nature).

As I previously stated, I will be posting all of my MLB plays for as long as I remain on SBR right in this thread. My NBA and WNBA plays can be found in my thread in the NBA forum. I encourage discourse whether in support of or against my plays, so please feel free to weigh in with your comments. We need to share knowledge with each other if we want to beat our common enemy -- the sportsbooks! Good luck to all!

LTA

[Popular]

Let's get it =) .. Good luck with continued success.. I'll be tailing

[nickos86]

Good luck (again) LTA. Can't wait to sweat out some more scary under 6.5's

Everybody on the NL today in the All-Star Game. Might just sit this one out and enjoy it lol.

[sipdawg7]

any plays for the all star game?

[Love The Action]

No play on AllStar game. At least one wnba play to be posted in other thread as soon as my locals wnba lines open.

[Love The Action]

Just posted my first wnba play for today on the seattle under in my thread on the nba forum...bol...

[JR007]

Best to the family as well..LTA..and to a successfull 2nd half

Scoring in the first half of the season dropped to its lowest level in 19 years and the major league batting average shrunk to its smallest midseason figure since 1985, confirmation that the Steroids Era has ended and that a new Age of the Pitcher is taking hold.
There were 8.4 runs per game prior to the All-Star break, according to STATS LLC, down 6 percent from last year's 8.9 at the midpoint and 20 percent from the peak of 10.5 in 2000.
"The pitchers in the National League - it's crazy," San Francisco's Pedro Sandoval said Monday, a day before the All-Star game. "We've got Roy Halladay, Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, Cole Hamels and Cliff Lee."

It's not only scoring that's decreased. Many offensive measures dipped during the first three months of the regular season.
The major league batting average of .253 was down from .259 at last year's All-Star break. It hasn't been this low since at midseason in 26 years, since it sunk to .252 in 1985. A dozen years ago, at the height of the Steroids Era, it rose to .273.
Hits per game dropped to 17.2 from 17.6 last year, down from 18.8 in 1999 and 2000. Home runs per game declined to 1.8, down a tenth of a point from last year and an astounding 31 percent below the 2000 average of 2.6 at the break.
The major league ERA of 3.85 is down from 4.15 during the first three months of last season and more than a run below the 4.86 ERA when players broke for the 2000 All-Star game at Atlanta's Turner Field.
"It seems like a lot of guys are throwing a lot harder these days. It seems like every team has a couple guys throwing 100," said Chicago White Sox slugger Carlos Quentin, who has 17 homers. "As a hitter, you embrace that challenge."
Hitters seem to be taking shorter strokes, not going for the fences. Strikeouts averaged 6.3 per game, down from 6.6 last year and a high of 7.7 in 2000.
"There's been a lot of young pitcher coming to the big leagues," Philadelphia's Placido Polanco said. "I think that makes a difference."
Quentin has another insight: The way some pitchers are being used has changed.
"There's a lot of guys coming out of the bullpen that are good," he said. "You see a lot of guys that are converted from being starters to relievers, and all of a sudden they're throwing 95 and 96 out of the 'pen for one-plus inning. I feel like I've seen more of those guys of late."

[JR007]

Just posted my first wnba play for today on the seattle under in my thread on the nba forum...bol...

[Love The Action]

Best to the family as well..LTA..and to a successfull 2nd half

Scoring in the first half of the season dropped to its lowest level in 19 years and the major league batting average shrunk to its smallest midseason figure since 1985, confirmation that the Steroids Era has ended and that a new Age of the Pitcher is taking hold.
There were 8.4 runs per game prior to the All-Star break, according to STATS LLC, down 6 percent from last year's 8.9 at the midpoint and 20 percent from the peak of 10.5 in 2000.
"The pitchers in the National League - it's crazy," San Francisco's Pedro Sandoval said Monday, a day before the All-Star game. "We've got Roy Halladay, Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, Cole Hamels and Cliff Lee."

It's not only scoring that's decreased. Many offensive measures dipped during the first three months of the regular season.
The major league batting average of .253 was down from .259 at last year's All-Star break. It hasn't been this low since at midseason in 26 years, since it sunk to .252 in 1985. A dozen years ago, at the height of the Steroids Era, it rose to .273.
Hits per game dropped to 17.2 from 17.6 last year, down from 18.8 in 1999 and 2000. Home runs per game declined to 1.8, down a tenth of a point from last year and an astounding 31 percent below the 2000 average of 2.6 at the break.
The major league ERA of 3.85 is down from 4.15 during the first three months of last season and more than a run below the 4.86 ERA when players broke for the 2000 All-Star game at Atlanta's Turner Field.
"It seems like a lot of guys are throwing a lot harder these days. It seems like every team has a couple guys throwing 100," said Chicago White Sox slugger Carlos Quentin, who has 17 homers. "As a hitter, you embrace that challenge."
Hitters seem to be taking shorter strokes, not going for the fences. Strikeouts averaged 6.3 per game, down from 6.6 last year and a high of 7.7 in 2000.
"There's been a lot of young pitcher coming to the big leagues," Philadelphia's Placido Polanco said. "I think that makes a difference."
Quentin has another insight: The way some pitchers are being used has changed.
"There's a lot of guys coming out of the bullpen that are good," he said. "You see a lot of guys that are converted from being starters to relievers, and all of a sudden they're throwing 95 and 96 out of the 'pen for one-plus inning. I feel like I've seen more of those guys of late."

Interesting..thanks for your contribution.

I wonder if this means that the second half will regress to the mean of more scoring or if this is where the mean should have been all along and we are only returning to such low scoring now that the steroid era is over?

I personally think we will continue to see pitching and defense dominate in the second half.

[Love The Action]

Let's talk final team win totals for the year.

Who is going to get hot and who is going to get cold in the second half of the season? I am going to review the season win projections to see if there are any exploitable totals according to my current power rankings. If anyone has any thoughts, leans or possible team total win plays, please feel free to post here.

I encourage your contribution. Thanks.

[Love The Action]

Look like I may play White Sox over (80.5 total wins) (-120). I am going to be looking at total win projections throughout today and will post my final future plays for total wins, if any, sometime early evening tonight. Anyone have any future plays on total team wins for the season?

[Love The Action]

Edit...

[Krazymojo]

Lets get a future bet out there

[Shark]

interesting thread.

[Love The Action]

Look like I may play White Sox over (80.5 total wins) (-120). I am going to be looking at total win projections throughout today and will post my final future plays for total wins, if any, sometime early evening tonight. Anyone have any future plays on total team wins for the season?

No play on the White Sox. I was looking at the historical results of some of the hitters on that team -- namely Dunn and Rios -- who should perform better than they had in the first half. As I am sure you know, Dunn has played horribly all year but is historically a 40/100 guy. Therefore, he is due for a regression towards his historical averages and should get on the 2h. However, after thinking about it, I don't think this is a good bet at the price and there is no value here. I can see this team going either way, but they have played so poorly to date and the manager/GM perpetual fighting is not good for the team. Definitely no play on the White Sox.

I really want to play the Mariners at over 75.5 (+100), however, with Bedard not healthy and the Mariners possibly looking to trade away some of their best players, I'm not sure this is the right way to go either. Let's do a little more homework on this one and a few others I'm looking at.

I like the Angels because of their pitching, but the juice on their total is too much with it at -150.

I love the Devil Rays over 87.5 at plus odds, but they are in such a tight division.

The Nationals are interesting at over 75.5, but they are getting juiced at -130 at both my books.

The Royals are very intriguing to me at over 66.5 (+100). With a lot of young players that will be called up, they might just catch fire enough to go 30 - 41 over their final 71 games.

The Tigers, while they probably win the Central, pose a tricky line at 86.5 with the over juiced. How many games are needed to win the Central?

The Brewers are interesting. They are going for it and need to win it this year. The trade for K-Rod may energize this team and 86.5 with the over at plus odds, I lean that way.

[kernssca]

not a big fan of these types of bets but interesting

[Love The Action]

not a big fan of these types of bets but interesting

Just a 0.50x bet if I make any futures, nothing big. However, what you try to do with these mid-season total win bets is trying to spot who is going to catch fire the 2h. What team out there that no one expects to contend down the stretch actually will? Or, which team need only go .500 or less to top their total projection?

I'm not a big fan of futures wagers either because they tie up your BR. However, I bet with local books on credit so that's not much of an obstacle for me....

[phillybadboy]

you do mlb too?

[funnyman]

Back to baseball. Seemed longer than 3 days.

[blumpkin]

I played the giants over 90. they have a bunch of games with teams under 500 as well as a bunch with the west who they are 22-13 against. i also think they will make a move and add a bat to go along with the nice pitching staff.

[TT22]

Great to have baseball back.

[gtboy]

gl today Action. i personally like min over and tex under. ur thoughts?

[JR007]

hard to say, fatigue, travel schedules, trades...teams falling out of contention..will see in August

the under on the Giants game hit hard off the overnight

[Love The Action]

you do mlb too?

I love mlb....I had been posting my mlb plays in my nba thread until now...I thought the all star break would be a good chance to get a permanent mlb thread going...

[Love The Action]

Back to baseball. Seemed longer than 3 days.

I know...it wouldn't have been bad if I was killing wnba but unfortunately I lost units with the ladies over the break...good luck today my friend.

[natethagreat]

Baseball is back lets get some

[natethagreat]

Florida today +110

[Love The Action]

I played the giants over 90. they have a bunch of games with teams under 500 as well as a bunch with the west who they are 22-13 against. i also think they will make a move and add a bat to go along with the nice pitching staff.

Nice play...I'm getting juiced big time on that one, but I always look at pitching first and the giants are stacked in that department. They need to play about ten games above .500 though and go around 40-30 in the 2h which could be tough. Good luck!

[Love The Action]

Great to have baseball back.

[Love The Action]

gl today Action. i personally like min over and tex under. ur thoughts?

Same to you...I like the texas under but won't play any texas under below 8 because of their bats. However, seattle inis an under machine and both harrison and vargas have pitched well with vargas getting the edge in my mind because of better advanced stats. Big rlm in that one too dropping the total so I hope you cash. No lean on that minny over...both pitchers are jekkyl and hyde types that can throw a shutout or get shelled from game to game..bol...

[Love The Action]

hard to say, fatigue, travel schedules, trades...teams falling out of contention..will see in August

the under on the Giants game hit hard off the overnight

You know me well...that is my first play of the 2h. Locked it in ten minutes ago at plus odds and has since gone down to even ..however, that is at a total of 6 because I couldn't get 6.5 last night and was hoping it would go back up...once I saw it wasn't, I jumped on the six run total at + 100. About to post it now...good luck today JR.

[Love The Action]

MLB 7/14/11

Play #1

Giants/Padres under (6)(+100) 1.25x (Locked)

Locked this play in about twenty minutes ago, after some outlets dropped to even odds at a total of 6. The total opened at 6.5, but was hit hard and dropped to 6. Currently, Pinny still hast it 6.5, but it juicing it at a huge -140. The majority of all bets are on the under as we speak, but I expect that to even out a bit later in the day. Regardless, however, it was sharp steam that had this total falling.

If you look at Bumgarner's advanced stats, you have to respect him. This guy is top 30 MLB in tERA, FIP, xFIP and his batted ball peripherals are solid with a 1.35 GB/FB ratio. He's a got a bit of a high BABIP over .330, his LOB% is a bit low under 68% and his WHIP is a bit high over 1.30 so that's not the best, but I think he should limit a perhaps rusty Padres lineup that isn't the best in the first place. In his last three starts, his WHIP is 1.13 with a solid ERA of 3.10 and going 1 -2 o/u against low totals in that span. On the other side, Harang just came back from an injury to pitch 6 shutout innings against the Dodgers offense. I think Harang is rested and should be throwing his best for the rest of the year. Harang is solid with a tERA of 3.66 and an xFIP of 3.96. He's got a great LOB% over 76% and a great BABIP at .286. His WHIP is 1.28 on the year which is good, but 1.07 in his last three starts which is dominating. His 1.93 ERA over that same span is also impressive. His batted ball stats are not as good as Bumgarner, but still average with a GB/FB ratio over 1.00. Both guys have solid control with a K/BB over 2.10 and both can get crucial strikeouts averaging over 6.5 per game (with Bumgarner over 7.9). The Giants are a bit better fielding team overall, although both teams are ranked in the bottom 1/3 of the league. Nevertheless, their superior starting pitching combined with both teams' superior bullpens, makes this under bet a must-play. These two teams are 27th and 29th in MLB in runs scored, so I don't expect a lot of offense tonight against these solid starting pitchers and I'm rolling with the under for 1.25x. Good luck!

[Love The Action]

I lean Indians right now as well...let's see where that price ends up going. We have seen some RLM in favor of the Orioles up until now, so I may lay off. However, the disparity in starting pitching may be too big to pass up.

I also will be taking a hard look at the Brewers ML. Jiminez has gotten shelled in Colorado but is hot of late. Plus, until his last start, Gallardo had not been pitching well. Nevertheless, I think we have some value with the Brewers at +125.

I have a few other leans, but these are late games today so let's see where some of the money ends up going before we lock anything else in for today. Off to work now...I will post my plays as soon as possible after locking them in.

Glad to get back to bases...good luck to all today!

[csmkr18]

Good luck with your new thread LTA. I will follow all your MLB bets.

[Love The Action]

Good luck with your new thread LTA. I will follow all your MLB bets.