Hatter's 2013 Tea Party on the Mound

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  • Maddhatter
    SBR MVP
    • 06-12-09
    • 4350

    #211
    Originally posted by drnkyourmlkshk
    I am unsure if you are taking a break but wanted you to know that I'm rooting you on and like that it looks like you have taken a day off and I think that shows a great amount of discipline. Good job and great season so far sir.
    Yes, I had to get a couple days away just to clear my head. Going to see how today goes and see if I can get back on track after an abysmal week. Thanks for the support mlkshk. Good luck today on your card.
    Comment
    • Wesley
      SBR MVP
      • 10-06-09
      • 1734

      #212
      yo hatter, I hope you will strike back!

      the last two weeks were hard for many baseball cappers I think

      Comment
      • Maddhatter
        SBR MVP
        • 06-12-09
        • 4350

        #213
        5/4 Sat

        Cin -120 10u
        Oak +100 5u
        Oak TT O4 -115 20u
        Minn FF -105 20u
        Cleveland TT U4.5 -120 5u
        Sea FF +115 20u
        Sea +125 10u
        Sea TT O3.5 +105 20u
        Tor TT U3.5 +110 5u
        Comment
        • drnkyourmlkshk
          SBR High Roller
          • 03-01-12
          • 156

          #214
          Originally posted by Maddhatter
          Yes, I had to get a couple days away just to clear my head. Going to see how today goes and see if I can get back on track after an abysmal week. Thanks for the support mlkshk. Good luck today on your card.
          My card is just one RL with SF (fading LA teams in all sports currently is +ev) then a lot on a few ponies. I like #12 in the derby not a big wager just a little on w,p,s. I take 2 days off minimum a week from everything nowadays. I do my 20 hrs of research on ncaaf early in the week and try to take wednesday and Thursday off.
          BOL to you
          Comment
          • Maddhatter
            SBR MVP
            • 06-12-09
            • 4350

            #215
            Originally posted by Wesley
            yo hatter, I hope you will strike back!

            the last two weeks were hard for many baseball cappers I think

            Thanks Wes. I hope your week is going better than mine. BoL today.
            Comment
            • Maddhatter
              SBR MVP
              • 06-12-09
              • 4350

              #216
              Originally posted by drnkyourmlkshk
              My card is just one RL with SF (fading LA teams in all sports currently is +ev) then a lot on a few ponies. I like #12 in the derby not a big wager just a little on w,p,s. I take 2 days off minimum a week from everything nowadays. I do my 20 hrs of research on ncaaf early in the week and try to take wednesday and Thursday off.
              BOL to you
              I agree about fading LA teams. A lot of $$ flows through that city, along w/ certain others, and the LA teams right now are not performing up to the high expectations. I'm not familiar w/ the ponies but wish you well in it. BoL to you as well.
              Comment
              • Maddhatter
                SBR MVP
                • 06-12-09
                • 4350

                #217
                Adding...

                Balt/LAA FF U4.5 +100 5u
                Pitt FF +120 10u
                StL FF -130 10u
                Comment
                • drnkyourmlkshk
                  SBR High Roller
                  • 03-01-12
                  • 156

                  #218
                  You said something in reply to me that was honestly one of the more intelligent things I have ever read on a forum. Ill explain not overly as I dont have the time. There was a man that passed recently that played the Bellagio daily 500 but it wasn't a secret that he was very sharp and I had a few conversations with him and he once told me if you can't find value on the board look to the biggest cities, people primarily bet with their heart even subconsciously. Everyone holds a bias even if they are unaware of it.
                  The biggest city near LV is easily LA and on the weekend you will find lakers, dodgers, angels, kings lines all slightly shaded from what you are reading at pinny and make no mistake that line anywhere in vegas is no more than 1-3 cents at absolute most from pinny 99% excluding cantor shops. But he once said if you just watched the opening number in nfl on the 3 biggest market cities Chicago, New York, LA 10 years ago at some point you would have a middling opportunity. I have never looked at it as nfl has always been the day that boring football gets played but I bet there is alot of wisdom in what he was saying.
                  Anyways fading LA until further notice
                  Comment
                  • Maddhatter
                    SBR MVP
                    • 06-12-09
                    • 4350

                    #219
                    Adding...

                    Phil -210 2u
                    Hou FF +170 3u
                    KC -150 4u
                    Bos FF +120 5u
                    TB FF -130 4u
                    Ari FF -130 20u
                    Comment
                    • Maddhatter
                      SBR MVP
                      • 06-12-09
                      • 4350

                      #220
                      5/4 Sat

                      Cin -120 10u W
                      Oak +100 5u L
                      Oak TT O4 -115 20u L
                      Minn FF -105 20u L
                      Cleveland TT U4.5 -120 5u L
                      Sea FF +115 20u W
                      Sea +125 10u W
                      Sea TT O3.5 +105 20u W
                      Tor TT U3.5 +110 5u W
                      Balt/LAA FF U4.5 +100 5u W
                      Pitt FF +120 10u W
                      StL FF -130 10u W
                      Phil -210 2u L
                      Hou FF +170 3u L
                      KC -150 4u W
                      Bos FF +120 5u L
                      TB FF -130 4u L
                      Ari FF -130 20u W

                      10-8 +60.60 Units for the day. 2-3 5u, 10-4 10u Plays. Minn shouldn't have been a 20u play. Thought about it after I placed the bet but at that point it was too late. Regardless, it was a much needed winning day.


                      MLB: 171-156, +345.25 Units, 52.3% (33-47-3 5u, 138-99-6 10u Plays)

                      NCAAB: 318-317, +267.75 Units, 50.1% (89-116-7 5u, 350-279-29 10u Plays)
                      NCAAF/NFL: 180-177, +4.85 Units. 50.4% (39-45-1 5u, 90-78-4 10u Plays)
                      Comment
                      • JayLA
                        SBR Hall of Famer
                        • 09-11-12
                        • 7806

                        #221
                        Comment
                        • Maddhatter
                          SBR MVP
                          • 06-12-09
                          • 4350

                          #222
                          No plays today. Been too busy to cap.
                          Comment
                          • Maddhatter
                            SBR MVP
                            • 06-12-09
                            • 4350

                            #223
                            5/6 Mon

                            Boston FF -210 10u
                            Comment
                            • atofsu32111
                              SBR MVP
                              • 02-18-08
                              • 2801

                              #224
                              damn was gonna do full game then switched to ff when i saw you on, what did you like in this vs full game? I shouldnt of switched damn boston up now....
                              Comment
                              • Maddhatter
                                SBR MVP
                                • 06-12-09
                                • 4350

                                #225
                                5/7 Tues

                                KC +115 10u
                                KC TT O3.5 -125 5u
                                Pitt -125 5u
                                Cleveland -110 10u
                                Cinn -120 5u
                                Boston -1.5 +110 5u
                                CWS/NYM FF U3.5 -130 10u
                                Tor/TB FF U4.5 -120 5u
                                Tex FF -115 20u
                                Tex -120 20u
                                Tex -1.5 +140 10u
                                Houston FF +155 3u
                                Arizona +105 20u
                                Arizona TT O3.5 -115 20u
                                Comment
                                • Maddhatter
                                  SBR MVP
                                  • 06-12-09
                                  • 4350

                                  #226
                                  Originally posted by atofsu32111
                                  damn was gonna do full game then switched to ff when i saw you on, what did you like in this vs full game? I shouldnt of switched damn boston up now....
                                  Sorry bud. Pens seemed to be performing equally while the bats only slightly favored Boston in my calculations. Didn't expect Buchholz to give up as many runs as he did. If anything, I expected a slight lead going into the 5th by Boston and didn't feel confident about them keeping it in the 2H. BoL today bud.
                                  Comment
                                  • Maddhatter
                                    SBR MVP
                                    • 06-12-09
                                    • 4350

                                    #227
                                    5/6 Mon

                                    Boston FF -210 10u L

                                    0-1 -21.00 Units for the day.


                                    MLB: 171-157, +324.25 Units, 52.3% (33-47-3 5u, 138-100-6 10u Plays)

                                    NCAAB: 318-317, +267.75 Units, 50.1% (89-116-7 5u, 350-279-29 10u Plays)
                                    NCAAF/NFL: 180-177, +4.85 Units. 50.4% (39-45-1 5u, 90-78-4 10u Plays)




                                    5/7 Tues

                                    KC +115 10u L
                                    KC TT O3.5 -125 5u L
                                    Pitt -125 5u W
                                    Cleveland -110 10u W
                                    Cinn -120 5u W
                                    Boston -1.5 +110 5u L
                                    CWS/NYM FF U3.5 -130 10u W
                                    Tor/TB FF U4.5 -120 5u L
                                    Tex FF -115 20u L
                                    Tex -120 20u L
                                    Tex -1.5 +140 10u L
                                    Houston FF +155 3u W
                                    Arizona +105 20u W
                                    Arizona TT O3.5 -115 20u W

                                    7-7 -8.60 Units for the day. 2-3 5u, 6-6 10u Plays. Juiced out today. Could've been a lot worse. Still not getting a good capping "feel" to the games. Regardless, I'm confident I'll have another winning streak before the season is over.


                                    MLB: 178-165, +315.65 Units, 51.9% (35-50-3 5u, 144-106-6 10u Plays)

                                    NCAAB: 318-317, +267.75 Units, 50.1% (89-116-7 5u, 350-279-29 10u Plays)
                                    NCAAF/NFL: 180-177, +4.85 Units. 50.4% (39-45-1 5u, 90-78-4 10u Plays)



                                    No Plays today.
                                    Comment
                                    • Maddhatter
                                      SBR MVP
                                      • 06-12-09
                                      • 4350

                                      #228
                                      5/9 Thurs

                                      Colorado FF +110 20u
                                      Colorado +105 20u
                                      Comment
                                      • Maddhatter
                                        SBR MVP
                                        • 06-12-09
                                        • 4350

                                        #229
                                        First glance, I easily capped the Yanks and CC as the easy play. Looking closer...


                                        CC Sabathia (L2 games): 14 inn, 17 hits, 3 HRs, 2 BBs, .311 BABIP, .317 OBP, 1.36 WHIP, 3.99 xERA, 6.43 K/9, 1.29 BB/9, 40%GB/40%FB/20%LD.

                                        Jeff Francis (L2 Games): 10 inn, 9 hits, 2 HRs, 2 BBs, .226 BABIP, .293 OBP, 1.10 WHIP, 3.36 xERA, 4.50 K/9, 1.80 BB/9, 71%GB/22.6%FB/6.5%LD.

                                        Yankees (L5 games): .206 BA, .313 SLG, 11 R, 33 hits, 3 HRs.
                                        Rockies (L5 games): .262 BA, .459 SLG, 20 R, 45 hits, 9 HRs.

                                        Yankees Pen (L3 games): 8 inns, 1 HR, 1 ER, 0.63 WHIP, 3.21 xERA, 47%GB/43.5%FB/8.7%LD.
                                        Rockies Pen (L3 games): 9 inns, 0 HR, 2 ER, 1.33 WHIP, 2.86 xERA, 65%GB/15%FB/20%LD.


                                        Based upon the stats of their most recent games, I would be worried about the Yankees GB to FB ratio (both Sabathia's and their Pen) in Coors field along with the better #s by Francis. Batting goes to a bigger edge w/ the Rockies especially w/ Hafner and the DH position nonexistent @ Coors. Only one batter to worry about w/ past ABs vs Francis and that is Cano (3 ABs .333 BA) w/ a small working sample. Flipside, Tulowitski is batting .667 in 3 ABs vs Sabathia in the past. Of course, CC will have the huge advantage in stamina and his ability to go deeper into the game vs Francis who has averaged only 5 inns/g this year. Weather seems like it will hold up with mild conditions (http://dailybaseballdata.com/cgi-bin/weather.pl). Score: 5-2 Colorado wins.
                                        Comment
                                        • RetardStrength
                                          SBR MVP
                                          • 01-25-10
                                          • 1478

                                          #230
                                          BOL Hatter... Everyone hammering the Rockies. Brought the line down to almost a Pk...
                                          Comment
                                          • Maddhatter
                                            SBR MVP
                                            • 06-12-09
                                            • 4350

                                            #231
                                            Originally posted by RetardStrength
                                            BOL Hatter... Everyone hammering the Rockies. Brought the line down to almost a Pk...
                                            Didn't quite work out how I hoped. Hope you did good yesterday bud.
                                            Comment
                                            • Maddhatter
                                              SBR MVP
                                              • 06-12-09
                                              • 4350

                                              #232
                                              Fri 5/10

                                              Seattle FF -130 20u
                                              Seattle -125 20u
                                              Comment
                                              • Maddhatter
                                                SBR MVP
                                                • 06-12-09
                                                • 4350

                                                #233
                                                5/9 Thurs

                                                Colorado FF +110 20u L
                                                Colorado +105 20u L

                                                0-2 -40.00 Units for the day. 0-4 10u Plays.


                                                MLB: 178-167, +275.65 Units, 51.6% (35-50-3 5u, 144-110-6 10u Plays)

                                                NCAAB: 318-317, +267.75 Units, 50.1% (89-116-7 5u, 350-279-29 10u Plays)
                                                NCAAF/NFL: 180-177, +4.85 Units. 50.4% (39-45-1 5u, 90-78-4 10u Plays)



                                                Fri 5/10

                                                Seattle FF -130 20u W
                                                Seattle -125 20u W

                                                2-0 +40.00 Units for the day. 4-0 10u Plays.


                                                MLB: 180-167, +315.65 Units, 51.9% (35-50-3 5u, 148-110-6 10u Plays)

                                                NCAAB: 318-317, +267.75 Units, 50.1% (89-116-7 5u, 350-279-29 10u Plays)
                                                NCAAF/NFL: 180-177, +4.85 Units. 50.4% (39-45-1 5u, 90-78-4 10u Plays)
                                                Comment
                                                • Maddhatter
                                                  SBR MVP
                                                  • 06-12-09
                                                  • 4350

                                                  #234
                                                  Tues 5/14

                                                  Balt -145 20u
                                                  Balt -1.5 +150 10u
                                                  Pitt +105 5u
                                                  Cleveland FF -130 20u
                                                  Clev/Phil U8.5 -115 10u
                                                  Cleveland -125 10u
                                                  Sea TT U3 -110 10u
                                                  SF FF +125 5u
                                                  Hou/Det FF O4.5 -110 5u
                                                  Hou/Det O8.5 -105 5u
                                                  Miami FF +155 3u
                                                  Boston FF +120 5u
                                                  CHC -115 10u
                                                  CHC -1.5 +160 5u
                                                  Minn +100 4u
                                                  StL -175 5u
                                                  Atlanta +125 10u
                                                  KC +105 4u
                                                  Texas FF -115 4u
                                                  Comment
                                                  • grim259
                                                    SBR High Roller
                                                    • 11-04-12
                                                    • 187

                                                    #235
                                                    Got all my money tied up in D2D thread today. BOL on this, I really want you on a hotstreak to make us all money!
                                                    Comment
                                                    • Maddhatter
                                                      SBR MVP
                                                      • 06-12-09
                                                      • 4350

                                                      #236
                                                      Had to take a break. On a bad streak right now and its been a little hectic in RL. It'll still be busy until the new month starts but I'll have a lot of time when June comes around so I should be back in the game then. I'm hoping to start out fresh and hopefully get a better "feel" in capping with what I hope will be better results.


                                                      Tues 5/28

                                                      Tor -120 10u
                                                      Colorado -175 10u
                                                      Comment
                                                      • Maddhatter
                                                        SBR MVP
                                                        • 06-12-09
                                                        • 4350

                                                        #237
                                                        TB -240 20u
                                                        Sea -110 5u
                                                        Comment
                                                        • Wesley
                                                          SBR MVP
                                                          • 10-06-09
                                                          • 1734

                                                          #238
                                                          good to see you back, bro
                                                          Comment
                                                          • Maddhatter
                                                            SBR MVP
                                                            • 06-12-09
                                                            • 4350

                                                            #239
                                                            Phil +115 5u
                                                            Comment
                                                            • Maddhatter
                                                              SBR MVP
                                                              • 06-12-09
                                                              • 4350

                                                              #240
                                                              Originally posted by Wesley
                                                              good to see you back, bro
                                                              Thanks man. Hope baseball has been kinder to you than it has been for me lately
                                                              Comment
                                                              • Wesley
                                                                SBR MVP
                                                                • 10-06-09
                                                                • 1734

                                                                #241
                                                                Originally posted by Maddhatter
                                                                Thanks man. Hope baseball has been kinder to you than it has been for me lately
                                                                not really :/

                                                                some crappy bullpens blew my money away -.-
                                                                Comment
                                                                • Maddhatter
                                                                  SBR MVP
                                                                  • 06-12-09
                                                                  • 4350

                                                                  #242
                                                                  Min/Milw O9 -105 10u
                                                                  CWS FF -195 20u
                                                                  Sea/SDG Score in 1st YES -105 20u
                                                                  Sea TT O4 +105 5u
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • Maddhatter
                                                                    SBR MVP
                                                                    • 06-12-09
                                                                    • 4350

                                                                    #243
                                                                    Considering some LIVE betting on TB and Cincinnati.
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • Maddhatter
                                                                      SBR MVP
                                                                      • 06-12-09
                                                                      • 4350

                                                                      #244
                                                                      Adding....

                                                                      LIVE: Cinn -3 -125 20u
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • Maddhatter
                                                                        SBR MVP
                                                                        • 06-12-09
                                                                        • 4350

                                                                        #245
                                                                        Top 4th Inn
                                                                        Comment
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