UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2 MMA Odds and Betting Picks

Top MMA Usman vs Covington picks for UFC 268. Best plays for a big payout! Don't miss out! SBR - trusted by bettors for over 20 years.

We have UFC 268 picks as welterweight champion Kamaru Usman will try to keep a tight stranglehold on his title, while Colby Covington - a former interim champion in his own right - will fight to taste undisputed gold for the first time.

Prior to their first bloody encounter at UFC 245, the controversial Covington ran his mouth incessantly (and often stupidly). It was only fitting, not to mention satisfying, that Usman decided to use his fist to break that mouth.

After a back-and-forth war of attrition that saw Covington do his best work in the early rounds, Usman started to turn the tide in the third stanza. He battered Covington's body before fracturing the Californian’s jaw. From there the champ poured it on, scoring a knockdown late in the final round with a clubbing right hand which he followed up with a flurry of hammer fists until referee Marc Goddard stepped in to stop the onslaught with 50 seconds left in the bout.

Here are my picks and predictions for Saturday’s UFC 268 welterweight title bout between Usman and Covington (odds via Fanduel Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5 star scale).

Usman vs. Covington Fight Info

Date/Time: Saturday, November 6, 10 p.m. ET (main card)TV: ESPN+, PPVLocation: Madison Square Garden, New York City, NY

Usman vs. Covington Odds Analysis

When the rematch was announced, Usman opened as a -270 favorite, and that gap has only widened since the fight has drawn nearer. The champion is listed at -320 at DraftKings Sportsbook but a slightly more profitable -310 at FanDuel). For anyone looking to throw some support behind the challenger, Covington is listed at +250 on DraftKings, and +240 at Fanduel.

Kamaru Usman Betting Profile  

Usman is an excellent wrestler who has rounded out his game as he’s matured as a mixed martial artist. He's adept at separating opponents from their consciousness with his fists. He has successfully defended his title three times since beating Covington, with a victory over Gilbert Burns sandwiched between a pair of triumphs over Jorge Masvidal.

Against Burns (a former teammate with the Blackzilians and Sanford MMA), Usman survived an early display of striking power from the grappling specialist. He eventually chipped away at the Brazilian's chin with a steady diet of piston-like jabs. In the opening minute of the third frame, Usman buckled Burns with a big right hand and finished the fight with a vicious ground-and-pound.

His second go-around with Masvidal solidified Usman’s status as a bonafide finisher. The 170-pound kingpin sent “Street Jesus” into the shadow realm with a thunderous right hand in the second round.

Colby Covington Betting Profile

A Division I wrestler with a penchant for slinging leather and a seemingly endless gas tank, Covington has set foot in the octagon only once since his last tango with Usman, scoring a TKO (rib injury) victory over former welterweight champion Tyron Woodley. Injury aside, Covington was absolutely dominating Woodley before the bout was waved off in the final round.

Prior to his loss to Usman, Covington counted ex-champions Robbie Lawler, Rafael dos Anjos and grappling wizard Demian Maia among his lengthy list of victims. The victories over Woodley and Lawler were especially impressive as “Chaos” essentially reigned from bell-to-bell.

Usman vs. Covington Betting Picks

Usman to win (-310) ????Usman by KO/TKO (+155) ??

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Usman vs. Covington Betting Predictions

Usman to win (-310)

Currently sporting the longest current winning streak in the UFC (14), Usman won’t have the streak broken on Saturday night.

“The Nigerian Nightmare” has only gotten better since his first bout with Covington, and he’ll ride his consistent jab and blossoming killer instinct to either a unanimous decision win or a late-round stoppage at UFC 268.

Usman by KO/TKO (+155)

Covington is a tough out for anyone at 170 pounds, and he has proven it against a murderer’s row of ex-champions and top contenders. That said, he’ll eventually fall victim to Usman’s suddenly venomous finishing ability.

Covington will hang with Usman in the early rounds, and may even show flashes of brilliance, but he’ll eventually get caught with a big right hand and a few follow up coffin nails for good measure.

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Usman-Covington picks made 11/03/21 at 10:30 p.m. ET.