Judges' Cards: UFC Fight Night Holloway vs. Rodriguez Expert Betting Picks

Sportsbook Review

Last Updated: November 13, 2021 6:11 AM EST • 4 min 38 sec read. Twitter link Google News Link

DENVER, CO - NOVEMBER 10: Yair Rodriguez (blue cuffs) fights Chan Sung Jung (red cuffs) of Korea in their Featherweight bout during the UFC Fight Night 139 at the Pepsi Center on November 10, 2018 in Denver, Colorado. Matthew Stockman/Getty Images/AFP (Photo by MATTHEW STOCKMAN / GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA / Getty Images via AFP)

The Sultan of Significant Strikes returns to the Octagon on Saturday night when Max Holloway looks to defeat Yair Rodriguez in the main event. Keep reading to see who our MMA experts like in our UFC Fight Night: Holloway and Rodriguez picks.

Max Holloway landed an astounding 445 significant strikes in his last bout against Calvin Kattar in January. The former featherweight kingpin used 274 of those significant strikes to bludgeon the outclassed Kattar’s head. Kattar was able to survive the entire 25 minutes despite being more of a punching bag than a warm-blooded opponent.

“Blessed” is hoping to bring that seemingly impossible and terrifying voluminous striking to the cage on Saturday night where he’ll face Yair Rodriguez.

Rodriguez doesn’t throw at that mind-melting pace, but he does like to spark opponents with pure flash. He is looking to add the former champion to his growing list of victims that includes Chan Sung Jung, Jeremy Stevens, Dan Hooker, and (the shell of) B.J. Penn.

Our experts offer up their picks and best bets for the entire UFC Fight Night: Holloway and Rodriguez card.

UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Rodriguez Expert Picks

Fight odds via DraftKings Sportsbook as of November 11, 2021. UFC Fight Night: Holloway and Rodriguez pick made by Ian Wharton, Kyle Smith, and Johnny Covers.

Prelims

Main card

UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Rodriguez Betting Lock

Holloway to win (-760)

This fight brings a terrible return and is likely only worth throwing into a parlay you already wanted to make. However, the discrepancies between Max Holloway and Yair Rodriguez justify this line. Holloway is almost twice as effective as a power striker and barely absorbs more hits per minute. As a grappler, Holloway is about 42 percent more effective at takedowns and 21 percent better at defense. The only way Rodriguez wins is by a lucky strike or complete no-show from Holloway. - Wharton

Holloway to win (-760)

Holloway is a massive favorite for a reason (although Yair is good enough that -760 might be a little much). The former 145-pound champion will use his dizzying pace, endless motor, and voluminous striking to completely overwhelm Rodriguez until the referee mercifully steps in to stop the slaughter at some point in the third or fourth round. - Smith

Rothwell to win (-150)

Rogerio de Lima is a guy who comes into this one off of a win, having alternated wins and losses his entire career since 2014. Inconsistency aside, I like for the veteran Rothwell to continue to ride his improved grappling to pull this one off inside the final bell. - Covers

UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Rodriguez Top Underdog Picks

Nzechukwu to win (+100)

This isn't much of an underdog pick compared to others, but I'd argue this light heavyweight battle is more skewed toward Nzechukwu than the line reflects. Nzechukwu has five inches of reach as an advantage and is a stronger striker with a better hit rate. Neither is an especially accomplished wrestler worth considering as far as a finish. - Wharton

Arce to win (+110)

Although I picked Yadong to emerge victorious both here, and in my individual fight preview, there’s a gnawing feeling in the back of my brain that feels like Arce’s reach and striking advantage might lead to a bit of an upset. If the gap widens any further, it might be smart to pick up Arce for the upset. - Smith

Williams to win (+125)

Standing at just six feet, Williams comes into this one with a three-inch reach advantage over his opponent and has the power to end this in a flash. Of his three fights in the UFC, two have ended violently in the first round and if not for a war against Michel Periera back in December, he’d be 4-0 heading into Saturday. - Covers

UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Rodriguez Top Prop Picks

Rothwell win by submission (+380)

Sometimes we just need to play trends when looking for the best prop value pick. Ben Rothwell should sell out to win by submission as Marcos Rogerio De Lima has lost his last five bouts by submission, and Rothwell happens to be a phenomenal finisher on the ground.

De Lima already must account for a three-inch height and reach difference while standing, and Rothwell is a heavy-hitter. We'll look to cash in on this big reward in hopes Rothwell doesn't finish De Lima from striking. - Wharton

Rothwell win by submission (+380)

Ben Rothwell might be a shaved bear. The man has some serious power and the kind of ridiculous strength that can end fights in a hurry when he gets his paws on his opponent. The former IFL standout will eventually trap Marcos Rogerio de Lima in a guillotine choke and force the Brazilian to either tap or take an unscheduled trip to dreamland. - Smith

Holloway/Rodriguez: Inside the Distance - Yes (-102)

In addition to Rodriguez having been out of the ring for a while, he wasn’t a fighter that went the distance when he was fighting regularly. Four of his last five have finished inside of it, thus I like for both of these guys to be looking for an early finish. - Covers

UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Rodriguez Bold Prediction

Liana Jojua to win (+195)

Seeing Casey get such an advantageous line is a surprise. She's lost three of her last four matches and needs this win to continue with the organization. But this is a dangerous foe for her.

Liana Jojua is an excellent grappler capable of winning this via decision or submission. Her key is simply surviving the power punches from Casey. This is the best value play of the card. - Wharton

Holloway to win between 4:00-end of the third round (+5500)

Rodriguez is a game opponent with some nice wins on his mantle, so it might take him a while to get completely buried in Holloway’s barrage of strikes. By late in the third round, the steady, unending stream of punishment will finally take its toll on Rodriguez, who will finally wilt in the closing minute of the frame. - Smith

Yair Rodriguez to win (+525)

While Holloway has gotten all of the early action, I think the number has gotten a bit out of control here on Rodriguez. This is still a guy who has wins over Dan Hooker, BJ Penn, and Chan Sung Jung before his year-plus absence. If I had to pick one outright I'd still go with Holloway, but there's value at this current number. - Covers