UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Rodriguez MMA Odds and Betting Picks

Former UFC featherweight champion Max Holloway is fighting for the first time in almost 10 months against Yair Rodriguez. Rodriguez is looking for the biggest win of his career. Who will emerge victorious?

Max Holloway has an impressive 22-6 record for his career, despite back-to-back losses to the current divisional champion. He's as skilled as they come and a win would give him three in his last five fights.

Yair Rodriguez is sitting at 14-2 with one no contest. He's on the cusp of earning his own title shot against Alexander Volkanovski with a win against Holloway. But he's a massive underdog for good reason.

Here are my picks and predictions for Saturday's featherweight UFC matchup between Holloway and Rodriguez (Odds via DraftKings; pick confidence based on 1-to-5-star scale).

Holloway vs. Rodriguez Fight Info

Date/Time: Saturday, November 13, 6 p.m. ETTV: ESPN+Location: UFC Apex, Las Vegas, NV

Holloway vs. Rodriguez Betting Odds Analysis

The line has moved in an incredible manner since it opened. Holloway was -450 and has seen his odds swell to -800 at some books. That's a shocking development considering he's facing a big striker who wants a highlight finish.

Rodriguez was a good value at +300 and is now +525 on some sites. He's won three of his last five fights, but the no contest came on an accidental eye poke. He's a great value even if he's deservedly a big underdog.

Max Holloway Betting Profile

Holloway has established himself as the second-best featherweight in the world, but is stuck in this in-between since he hasn't been able to overcome Volkanovski. He has little to gain but everything to lose. The good news is his profile is so strong, it's hard to imagine he'll drop any bout easily.

He's landing 7.26 strikes per minute and taking 4.58 per minute, with a 60-percent defense. His ground game is even better somehow, with a fantastic 84-percent takedown defense rate and 71-percent takedown rate. He's a dual-threat who can win in any fashion.

Yair Rodriguez Betting Profile

Looking to get his own title shot with an upset win over Holloway, Rodriguez is always a threat to win Fight of the Night. Rodriguez is a complete wildcard with his finishing ability, and that's his go-to because his overall striking and ground game lacks efficiency. His incredible last-second elbow finish of Korean Zombie was a good indicator of Rodriguez's knockout ability and suddenness.

Holloway vs. Rodriguez Betting Picks

Rodriguez (+525) ?Fight to be won by unanimous decision (+120) ???

SEE ALSO: Rothwell vs. De Lima MMA Picks

Holloway vs. Rodriguez Betting Predictions

Rodriguez to win (+525)

I don't think Rodriguez wins this bout, but putting money on Holloway's -760 line is wasteful. Rodriguez has legitimate knockout potential and is hard to prepare for. Don't be surprised if this is the Fight of the Night, even if Rodriguez can't pull the upset.

In reality, I think the opening line of +300 was the right balance for this fight. The public has taken to Holloway's name for good reason but few fighters should ever be this heavy of a favorite against a strong striker. Crazier things than a flash knockout or split decision have happened at these odds and I want part of that cut.

Fight to be won by unanimous decision (+120)

Holloway has won by unanimous decision in four of his last five fights, and almost always wins unanimously when his fights go the distance. He enjoyed a stretch of TKOs from 2016 through 2018, but those days seem to have passed as he's aged a bit. He has more to gain by making this fight last than to sell out for a finish since he's so close to another title shot.

Meanwhile, Rodriguez is more of the wildcard to end this fight early. He's only seen two decisions since 2016 and one was unanimous. That came in his last bout against Jeremy Stephens in 2019. Nevertheless, he has the stamina and will struggle to land big punches against Holloway. Expect him to resort to fighting for distance after being stonewalled early.

Picks made on 11/11/2021 at 12:32 p.m. ET