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UFC Best Bets
UFC Best Bets

A pair of heavyweight finishers clash in a five-round headliner at Charlotte’s Spectrum Center. Read on for our UFC best bets for Saturday’s UFC on ABC card based on the odds from our best sports betting apps.

Suriname’s Jairzinho Rozenstruik meets a surging Jailton Almeida in this weekend’s main event after violently disposing of Chris Daukaus this past December. The 35-year-old Rozenstruik had lost two straight before dispatching Daukaus, and he heads to North Carolina’s capital with seven knockouts in as many UFC victories.

As for Almeida, the Brazilian product has won four straight in the Octagon and 18 of 20 as a pro, with every one of his career victories coming inside the distance. The lauded prospect takes the cage for his second 2023 outing four months after scoring a TKO of Shamil Abdurakhimov.

In the light heavyweight co-main event, former title challenger Anthony Smith faces Brazil’s Johnny Walker. Smith aims to rebound from a TKO loss to Magomed Ankalaev he suffered last summer, while Walker looks to make it three in a row after scoring first-round stoppages of Paul Craig and Ion Cutelaba in his last two outings.

With all that said, here are our best bets for Saturday’s UFC on ABC: Rozenstruik vs. Almeida (odds via our best sports betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

UFC on ABC: Rozenstruik vs. Almeida schedule and odds

(odds via DraftKings)

Main Card (3 p.m. ET):

  • Jairzinho Rozenstruik (+400) vs. Jailton Almeida (-500)
  • Anthony Smith (-105) vs. Johnny Walker (-115)
  • Daniel Rodriguez (+250) vs. Ian Garry (-300)
  • Carlos Ulberg (-410) vs. Ihor Potieria (+330)
  • Tim Means (+185) vs. Alex Morono (-215)

Prelims (12 p.m. ET):

  • Matt Brown (+190) vs. Court McGee (-225)
  • Karl Williams (-410) vs. Chase Sherman (+330)
  • Cody Stamann (-155) vs. Douglas Silva de Andrade (+135)
  • Ji-Yeon Kim (-230) vs. Mandy Bohm (+195)
  • Bryan Battle (+115) vs. Gabe Green (-135)
  • Jessica-Rose Clark (+100) vs. Tainara Lisboa (-120)

UFC best bets: Rozenstruik vs. Almeida

  • Fight line: Stamann ML vs. Silva de Andrade (-144 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
  • Upset: Brown ML vs. McGee (+190 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐
  • Winning method: Almeida by submission vs. Rozenstruik (+100 via PointsBet) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
  • Prop bet: Ulberg vs. Potieria ends by KO/TKO in Round 1 (+135 via PointsBet) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
  • Parlay: Almeida by submission (-115) + Smith vs. Walker Under 1.5 Rounds (-140) + Ulberg vs. Potieria Ends in Round 1 (+110) = +573 (via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐

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UFC top picks for UFC on ABC: Rozenstruik vs. Almeida

Fight Line: Stamann ML vs. Silva de Andrade (-144 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐

Cody Stamann not only boasts a substantial edge in strength of schedule, he also bests Douglas Silva de Andrade in significant strike output (4.47 to 3.61 landed per minute) and accuracy (48% to 39%). A prolific finisher he isn’t, but Stamann is a willing striker and solid wrestler, and I’m banking on him to maintain a busy pace and rely on his mitts and mat skills in equal measure, as he scores an average of 2.47 takedowns per 15 minutes.

Look for Silva de Andrade to find some success with his unorthodox striking techniques, only for Stamann to outwork him and score some well-timed takedowns en route to a third straight W.

Upset: Brown ML vs. McGee (+190 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐

Matt Brown’s return from retirement may have been ill-advised, but I think he’s got just enough tread left on the proverbial tires to beat Court McGee, who isn’t lacking in mileage himself.

With more than 40 fights to his name, the beloved Brown isn’t as durable as he used to be, but he’s tasked with a man who hasn’t won via strikes in over a decade, and I’m banking on his chin to hold up against McGee’s usual pitter-patter. All this to say, look for Brown to land the more substantial blows and show enough flashes of his former self to claim this battle of seasoned veterans, be it by KO/TKO or on points.

Winning method: Almeida by submission vs. Rozenstruik (+100 via PointsBet)  ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Rozenstruik has been fortunate enough to face few takedown artists over his UFC stint, but much to his dread, he’ll be sharing the cage with one come Saturday. 

The kickboxer’s woeful grappling was exposed by Curtis Blaydes just three fights ago, and with an output of under three significant strikes per minute, the oft-methodical Rozenstruik should find himself on the wrong end of another swift start from Almeida. The Brazilian has scored takedowns in every one of his UFC contests and submitted 11 of his 18 pro conquests, so expect him to put Rozenstruik where he’s the least dangerous and open up on him before advancing position to snatch a neck or a limb for a 12th career tapout.

Prop bet: Ulberg vs. Potieria ends by KO/TKO in Round 1 (+135 via PointsBet) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

In a battle of light heavyweight bangers with over a dozen stoppages by KO/TKO between them, expect fireworks and a short night of work for Carlos Ulberg and Ihor Potieria.

Four of Ulberg’s five knockouts have come in the opening stanza, as have all but one of Potieria’s nine career KO/TKO wins. With Ukraine’s Potieria landing 4.72 significant strikes per minute and Ulberg scoring an absurd 8.27, these two will sling leather early and often, and there’s little in their tape or their measurables to suggest they’ll require a second round to determine the superior bruiser.

Parlay: Almeida by submission (-115) + Smith vs. Walker Under 1.5 rounds (-140) + Ulberg vs. Potieria ends in Round 1 (+110) = +573 (via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐

UFC best bets made 13/5/2023 at 12:15 a.m. ET.

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