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UFC Best Bets
UFC Best Bets

A pair of light heavyweight finishers are set to clash in the Octagon on Saturday, as Nikita Krylov and Ryan Spann will close out the UFC’s latest card at the Apex. Read on for our best bets for Saturday’s UFC Vegas 70 based on the odds from our best sportsbooks.

Krylov rejoined the world’s top promotion in 2018, only to drop four of his ensuing six contests, but he’s since righted the proverbial ship with a pair of impressive 2022 wins over Alexander Gustafsson and Volkan Oezdemir. The 30-year-old now heads to Vegas with 27 stoppages in 29 pro wins and a combined 10-7 UFC record over his two promotional stints. 

As for Spann, the Memphis native enters his 10th UFC bout with a promotional record of 7-2 and 18 stoppages of his own in 21 career victories. The 31-year-old Spann has won two straight, scoring first-round stoppages of Ion Cutelaba and Dominick Reyes in two walks to the Octagon this past year.

In the co-main event, Brazilian submission artist Andre Muniz looks to remain perfect as a UFC middleweight against Brendan Allen, who enjoyed a banner year in 2022 with three victories in as many walks to the cage.

With all that said, here are our best bets for UFC Vegas 70 (odds via Caesars and FanDuel Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Check out our UFC best bets.

UFC Fight Night schedule and odds

(Odds via Caesars)

Main Card (7 p.m. ET):

  • Nikita Krylov (-170) vs. Ryan Spann (+145)
  • Andre Muniz (-215) vs. Brendan Allen (+175)
  • Augusto Sakai (-125) vs. Don’Tale Mayes (+105)
  • Tatiana Suarez (-900) vs. Montana De La Rosa (+600)
  • Mike Malott (-205) vs. Yohan Lainesse (+170)

Prelims (4 p.m. ET):

  • Jasmine Jasudavicius (+110) vs. Gabriella Fernandes (-130)
  • Jordan Leavitt (-115) vs. Victor Martinez (-105)
  • Joe Solecki (-600) vs. Carl Deaton (+450)
  • Ode’ Osbourne (+130) vs. Charles Johnson (-160)
  • Rafael Alves (+160) vs. Nurullo Aliev (-190)
  • Hailey Cowan (-120) vs. Ailin Perez (+100)
  • Erick Gonzalez (+190) vs. Trevor Peek (-230)

UFC Fight Night best bets

  • Fight line: Krylov ML (-170 via Caesars) vs. Spann ⭐⭐⭐
  • Upset: Allen ML (+184 via FanDuel) vs. Muniz ⭐⭐⭐
  • Winning method: Aliev by decision (+230 via Caesars) vs. Alves ⭐⭐⭐
  • Prop bet: Malott vs. Lainesse to end in Round 1 (+110 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
  • Parlay: Aliev (-190), Johnson (-160), and Allen (+175) to win (+582 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐

UFC top picks for Fight Night

Fight line: Krylov ML (-170 via Caesars) vs. Spann ⭐⭐⭐

This pick (and its rating) has more to do with its decent value than Krylov himself, as he’s betrayed a habit of making poor decisions against foes he’s plenty capable of besting. That said, I like the 30-year-old’s chances here, as he recently outdueled a dangerous striker in Volkan Oezdemir in a methodical three-round showing and now gets a dance partner in Spann who is willing to trade leather. 

With Krylov boasting an edge in significant strike accuracy (56% to 45%), significant strikes landed per minute (4.45 to 3.42), and takedown average, I see the Ukrainian native outgunning a game Spann and maybe even relying on his wrestling en route to a third straight win.

Upset: Allen ML (+184 via FanDuel) vs. Muniz ⭐⭐⭐

Allen is often the one looking for a neck to squeeze in the cage, but he’ll have to avoid the mat this time out if he’s to score an upset over Muniz, a lauded Brazilian jiu-jitsu player with 15 career tap-outs. 

While Allen can certainly scramble his way out of some dicey positions, he’ll have to keep this one standing and be the first to truly test Muniz’s striking in the UFC. The middleweight vet lands a solid four significant strikes per minute and 55% of his attempts, so as long as his back doesn’t get too cozy with the canvas, he should strike his way to a fourth consecutive victory with a measured, methodical showing.

Winning method: Aliev by decision (+230 via Caesars) vs. Alves ⭐⭐⭐

In a battle pitting a wrestler against a striker who wins and loses big, I’m siding with the former. Aliev is a takedown artist who proved he can put in work on the mat in his Contender Series showing last September. But active as he can be with the ground-and-pound, a dynamo he is not, having gone the distance in six of his eight pro contests. 

I expect the debuting Aliev to tame the often wild Alves with a relentless pursuit of takedowns, and provided he can avoid Alves’ nasty guillotine choke - my reason for this three-star rating - look for the UFC newcomer to chew the clock with ground-and-pound from top control for another win on points.

Prop Bet: Malott vs. Lainesse to end in Round 1 (+110 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Malott has earned every one of his eight career victories in the opening stanza, and Lainesse boasts five first-round wins of his own in seven career stoppages, so these two likely won’t spend much time in the Octagon come fight night. 

As demonstrated in last year’s demolishing of Mickey Gall, Malott packs a solid wallop in his mitts, and he can snatch necks with a swiftness, while Lainesse is a purebred striker who may get the firefight he wants. Whether Malott wraps things up with a club-and-sub or Lainesse leaves him counting the lights with a thunderous blitz, this battle of Canadians shouldn’t see a second round.

Parlay: Aliev (-190), Johnson (-160), and Allen (+175) to win (+582 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐

Let’s make this event great by cashing a big payout on a parlay for this weekend. Since I have already explained why I like many of these fights to win, take advantage of this +582 offering from Caesars by parlaying these bouts together.

UFC best bets made 02/24/2023 at 12:20 a.m. ET.

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