UFC Odds & Best Bets Today: Schedule and Picks for UFC Vegas 69
The UFC’s latest event features a pivotal women’s flyweight matchup in a main event that could determine the next contender for the divisional throne. Read on for our top bets for UFC Vegas 69 based on the odds from our best sportsbooks.
Jessica Andrade looks to extend her win streak on a four-week turnaround at the expense of lauded flyweight prospect Erin Blanchfield. The former strawweight queen returned to flyweight and battered Lauren Murphy over three rounds, the lopsided decision extending her streak to three and tying with Amanda Nunes for the most victories in UFC women’s history at 15.
Blanchfield makes an enormous leap in competition after tapping both JJ Aldrich and Molly McCann in her two 2022 outings. The 23-year-old cut her teeth under the Invicta FC banner and now meets Andrade with seven straight Ws and a pristine 4-0 UFC record.
In Saturday’s light heavyweight co-main event, Jordan Wright vies for a reversal of fortune against “TUF 30” alum Zac Pauga after suffering three straight stoppages at 185 pounds.
Here are our best bets for UFC Vegas 69 (odds via FanDuel Sportsbook, Caesars Sportsbook, and PointsBet; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
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UFC Vegas 69 Schedule & Odds
(odds via Caesars)
Main Card (7 p.m. EST):
- Jessica Andrade (-120) vs. Erin Blanchield (+100)
- Jordan Wright (+230) vs. Zac Pauga (-280)
- Josh Parisian (+210) vs. Jamal Pogues (-260)
- William Knight (-125) vs. Marcin Prachnio (+105)
- Jim Miller (+180) vs. Alexander Hernandez (-220)
Prelims (4 p.m. EST):
- Lina Lansberg (+380) vs. Mayra Bueno Silva (-500)
- Jamall Emmers (+140) vs. Khusein Askhabov (-165)
- Ovince Saint Preux (+175) vs. Phillipe Lins (-210)
- Nazim Sadykhov (-190) vs. Evan Elder (+160)
- AJ Fletcher (-280) vs. Themba Gorimbo (+230)
- Clayton Carpenter (-310) vs. Juancamilo Ronderos (+250)
UFC Vegas 69 Best Bets
- Fight line: Andrade ML vs. Blanchfield (-120 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐
- Upset: Miller ML vs. Hernandez (+190 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
- Winning method: Andrade by KO/TKO or submission vs. Blanchfield (+ via PointsBet) ⭐⭐⭐
- Prop bet: Knight vs. Prachnio Under 1.5 Rounds (+130 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐
- Parlay: Andrade (-120) + Miller (+180) + Sadykhov (-190) = +684 (via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐
Top Picks for UFC Vegas 69
Fight Line: Andrade ML vs. Blanchfield (-120 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐
Erin Blanchfield has been touted as a future contender, but promising as she’s looked in four UFC showings, her wins came against foes who allowed her the time and space to set up takedowns. Jessica Andrade doesn’t fit that bill. The former strawweight champ is a dynamo with nine knockouts and eight submissions in 24 career wins, and her relentless pressure, hellacious hooks, and brutish, yet effective wrestling are all worthy of Blanchfield’s respect.
With a gaudy 6.8 significant strikes landed per minute and an average of 2.72 takedowns per 15 minutes, Andrade can impose her will just about everywhere. Expect her to hand Blanchfield her UFC comeuppance in merciless fashion come fight night.
Upset: Miller ML vs. Hernandez (+190 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
He may be long in the tooth, but Jim Miller can still beat many a lightweight, and I like his chances against Alexander Hernandez, who looks more like a flash in the pan with every walk to the Octagon. Hernandez wowed us all with a KO of Beneil Dariush in his UFC debut, but he now meets Miller with five losses in his past eight bouts, including four Ls by stoppage.
Miller is always a willing scrapper and remains an excellent mat technician, and with Hernandez landing just 39% of his significant strike attempts and scoring even less on his takedown attempts (33%), Miller can make Hernandez pay for his gaffes no matter where the action goes. Look for one of them to make this bout a grappling match before long, with Miller outscrambling, outworking, and maybe even finishing his foe with a 20th career tapout.
Winning Method: Andrade by KO/TKO or submission vs. Blanchfield (+ via PointsBet) ⭐⭐⭐
Granted, Blanchfield’s only loss came on points four years ago - hence this three-star rating - but as previously mentioned, she's yet to face anyone with Andrade's finishing prowess, resume, or abilities. The Brazilian finished 17 of her 24 pro conquests, and while she packs rare and terrifying power for her weight class, she isn’t above putting the squeeze on a foe’s neck should the opportunity present itself.
Andrade developed into a solid technician on the feet, and if she doesn’t score a 10th career KO/TKO with pressure and volume, she’ll have at least a few openings to snatch Blanchfield’s neck for a choke, as the latter averages four takedowns per 15 minutes.
Prop Bet: Knight vs. Prachnio Under 1.5 Rounds (+130 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐
William Knight earned over half his pro wins in under a round, while Marcin Prachnio is your typical front-runner, scoring 11 of 15 career victories in the opening stanza. The latter bruiser also fell to strikes in the first frame of three of his four UFC losses, and with the shorter Knight looking to get inside and land his granite hooks, Prachnio should get the kind of firefight he wants.
Whether Prachnio dazzles and cleans Knight’s clock with one of his devastating kicks or Knight checks a charging Prachnio’s chin with some heavy leather, these two light heavyweights shouldn’t need more than a round-and-a-half to determine the better man.
Parlay: Andrade (-120) + Miller (+180) + Sadykhov (-190) = +684 (via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐
UFC best bets made 2/18/2023 at 1:43 a.m. ET.
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