UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Curtis MMA Odds and Picks

UFC Fight Night 44 has a loaded card, with one of the main fights pitting Brendan Allen against Chris Curtis. We have you covered from all betting angles with our Allen and Curtis picks.

Brendan Allen has accumulated an impressive 17-4 record after winning four of his last five fights. The veteran is already in his third fight of the year and has shown signs of real improvement as an all-around threat. He's looking to ascend in the middleweight division and become ranked.

Chris Curtis is sitting at 27-8 despite just one UFC bout under his belt. A win would give the 34-year-old seven straight wins and a ranking after a very short time in the organization. He took this fight on short notice and therefore is the considerable underdog. 

Here are my picks and predictions for Saturday's men's welterweight UFC matchup between Allen and Curtis (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5 star scale).

Allen vs. Curtis Fight Info

Date/Time: Saturday, Dec. 4, 9:15 p.m. ETTV: ESPN+Location: UFC Apex, Las Vegas, NV

Allen vs. Curtis Odds Analysis

The line has moved slightly more towards Allen since opening at -300. Allen is universally between -340 and -365 across books. Curtis has seen a little more value go his way since opening at +250, rising to +280.

The odds for an Allen win by submission are currently +180, and a win by decision is +140. The payoff for a Curtis win by decision is a whopping +900, which is difficult to analyze since we have a limited amount of UFC data on him.

Brendan Allen Betting Profile

The 25-year-old Allen is as break-even of a striker as they come, averaging as many significant strikes per minute (4.1) as his hits taken (4.24). His accuracy is 7% better though, and he's only lost once due to strikes. His TKO against Sean Strickland in the second round in Nov. 2020 revealed his weakness against true boxers.

Allen's not the most efficient takedown artist or defender but he is very talented on the ground. He's won via two rear-naked chokes and an ankle lock over the last two years. His relentless attitude and overall slippery maneuvering make him extremely threatening.

Chris Curtis Betting Profile

Everything Curtis does is big. A relative newcomer to the UFC, he throws big punches and kicks and also takes a large number of them back. He's highly accurate as a striker and will press Allen's defense in a big way. There's a real chance he gets a combination that knocks Allen into an uncomfortable spot in a hurry.

His ground game is quite unknown at this point. He didn't spend much time working the mat against Sean Lally or Phil Hawes and instead opted to pound away at each other. It worked, as he won both fights and has fight of the night potential.

Allen vs. Curtis Picks

To win: Allen (-365) ???Method of victory: Curtis by KO/TKO (+450) ?

SEE ALSO: All UFC Picks and Predictions

Allen vs. Curtis Predictions

Allen to win (-365)

Allen is taking on a competitor on short notice, meaning he has everything to lose and little to gain. He's a big betting favorite because he's a familiar and consistent presence. He knows how to win and is good at surviving. There's no knock to his hustle from me.

The value isn't great to bet on him, but consider adding Allen to any parlay you have going to increase the return. He's had a full camp and can quickly beat Curtis if he takes this fight to the mat.

Curtis by KO/TKO (+450)

I'm throwing a partial unit on Curtis to win by KO/TKO instead of a lower-return prop bet. It's true I don't expect a ton from Curtis due to his limited experience against veteran UFC talent and the fact he's a fill-in against Allen. But his entire body of work shows his highlight reel power can catch even a veteran off guard.

The possibility of hitting on +450 is worth the small risk.

SEE ALSO: All picks and odds. Be sure to check out SportsbookReview.com’s community forums and betting tools.

Allen-Curtis picks made on 12/02/2021 at 2:28 a.m. ET