⚽ World Cup 2026: Group I Predictions, Best Bets & Odds
The 2026 World Cup gets underway in a couple of days, but we're more than a week out from the start of Group I play. And like about half of the groups, there's a clear-cut favorite at the top. France is a -215 betting favorite to advance at the top of Group I, and has almost shortened to co-favorite status to win the entire tournament.
With such a heavy favorite to come out on top, my Group I best bets and predictions dig into some deeper markets to find value.
📅 World Cup 2026: Group I schedule
The schedule for Group I goes down in a tight travel window in the northeast United States (with one quick trip to Toronto). In the grand scheme, not too band.
- June 16 -> France vs. Senegal (MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, N.J.)
- June 16 -> Iraq vs. Norway (Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, Mass.)
- June 22 -> France vs. Iraq (Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia)
- June 22 -> Norway vs. Senegal (MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, N.J.)
- June 26 -> Norway vs. France (Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, Mass.)
- June 26 -> Senegal vs. Iraq (BMO Field, Toronto)
⚽ World Cup 2026: Group I best bets
Senegal to qualify in 3rd place (+190)
The expanded move to 32 teams will allow for eight teams to advance from third place, and Senegal is setting up nicely to be a team that will take one of those spots. There's a massive hurdle to over a dominant French side, or the explosive Norwegians, for one of the top two positions in the group.
Senegal opens with France, a team they shocked 1-0 in the 2022 WC. Ultimately, however, France's elite transition and world-best attack should be ready to exploit the Senegalese side this time around, even if the result is maybe closer than many would expect. Their second game against Norway will likely decide whether this bet lands. Norway's wide-pressing attack, led by all-world Erling Haaland, should get the best of Senegal's high-pressing attack, buoyed by Idrissa Gana Gueye winning midfield battles. Senegal's defensive organization will be stretched, and I don't expect a result better than shared points.
So the ground to securing the third-place qualification might need to be earned via a victory over Iraq. The Iraqis are likely to employ a compact low block, looking to limit the damage as opposed to taking the lead foot. That's the type of defense that the Senegal side, with six Premier League players, will be accustomed to facing. The second half, when Pape Thiaw is likely to shift to an aggressive 3-4-2-1, is when Senegal will be able to break things down and grab all three points.
🔬 SBR EDGE
The pick: Senegal to qualify in 3rd place (+190)
The why: Senegal has shown that Gueye (both of them!), Ndiaye, Jackson, and Mane have enough quality to pick up three points against Iraq. Those three will likely be all they need to go over the line in third following what should be tighter-than-expected fixtures against Norway and France.
Market boundaries: Buy-up to: +175 | Allocation: 0.5 units
❓ World Cup 2026: Group I FAQs
Which teams are in Group I?
France, one of the most prolific teams in World Cup history, is joined by Norway, Senegal, and Iraq in Group I.
Who is the favorite to win Group I?
France is a -215 betting favorite to win Group I.
When does Group I play?
Group I opens their tournament play on June 16, with their second games on June 22, and their final games on June 26.
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