⚽ World Cup 2026: Group F Predictions, Best Bets & Odds

The 2026 World Cup gets underway in one week, but you have to wait a few extra days for Group F action. The Netherlands, at -135 odds, are a pretty big betting favorite to win the group. But can Japan or Sweden, or even Tunisia, give them a run?

So, my Group F best bets and predictions line up a pair of my best bets 

📅 World Cup 2026: Group F schedule

The schedule for Group F features plenty of travel, including a trip to Mexico. It's notable, however, that Estadio BBVA does not pose the elevation challenges of Mexico City.

• June 14 -> Netherlands vs. Japan (AT&T Stadium, Arlington, Texas)
• June 14 -> Sweden vs. Tunisia (Estadio BBVA, Guadalupe, Mexico)

• June 20 -> Netherlands vs. Sweden (NRG Stadium, Houston)
• June 20 -> Tunisia vs. Japan (Estadio BBVA, Guadalupe, Mexico)

• June 25 -> Japan vs. Sweden (AT&T Stadium, Arlington, Texas)
• June 25 -> Tunisia vs. Netherlands (Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, Mo.)

⚽ World Cup 2026: Group F best bets

Group F dual forecast: Netherlands / Japan (+130)

I see a pretty clear divide between the top two teams in this group and the bottom two, but less of a divide between the top two themselves. That's why I'm going to roll with the dual forecast over the exact forecast. This bet isn't actually about these teams individually or what they'll bring on a game-by-game basis. This pick is a big knock on the bottom two teams in the group.

Sweden have just been in shambles for a couple of years. They failed to qualify for the 2024 EURO, and they followed that up by being absolutely abysmal in qualifying for the World Cup, going 0-2-4, including two losses each to Kosovo that resulted in the manager being sacked. With Graham Potter at the helm the team was able to qualify via a playoff route with wins over Ukraine and Poland, but building cohesion with a team you took over less than a year ahead of the world's biggest tournament is no easy feat, and it remains to be seen if this squad has turned a corner. Even if it has, the Sweden roster doesn't have the depth or skill to keep up, and that's not even touching on the Isak fitness concerns.

Let's not get too carried about the "staunch" defense of the Tunisian side that became the first in WCQ history to advance through without conceding a goal. Their CAF group featured Namibia, Liberia, Malawi, Equatorial Guinea, and Sao Tome and Principe. It's a roster devoid of top-tier European talent, and short of maybe picking up a draw along the way won't be able to contend in this group.

Japan to win Group F (+300)

Japan's system is built around the collective of the roster and not around individual brilliance, although there are some individually brilliant players with injury concerns that make this less of a confident play than I'd like it to be. 

The second-favorite in Group F, Japan likes to sit in a low block that limits opponents' chances and transition play through the speed of players like Takefusa Kubo. Lining up in a 3-4-2-1, Wataru Endo's brilliance in the midfield delivers exceptional ball retention and top-tier defensive screening. But that buys into one of the biggest issues at play, particularly in the opening game against the Netherlands. Endo suffered an injury at Liverpool that left him sidelined for the bulk of the end of the Premier League season, and he was training separately in the week leading up to the tournament, according to reports. 

The other reason this one will just be a partial unit play is the absence of Karou Mitoma, who suffered a hamstring injury in the Run In with Brighton and was held out of the squad. With the Netherlands in the opening game there could be plenty of opportunities for the "favorite" to attack down the left side. But this Japanese squad, fresh off 1-0 wins against the Scotland in Scotland and England in England can grind out victories with the absolute best of them. 

❓ World Cup 2026: Group F FAQs

Which teams are in Group F? 

The Netherlands, Japan, Sweden, and Tunisia comprise Group F.

Who is the favorite to win Group F?

Netherlands are a -135 favorite to win Group F.

When does Group F play?

Group F opens their tournament play on June 14, with their second games on June 20, and their final games on June 25.