⚽ World Cup 2026: Group D Predictions, Best Bets & Odds

Group D of the 2026 World Cup is home to the host Americans, a slight +140 favorite to come out on top. But competition from Turkey (+175) will be real. 

My Group D predictions and best bets dig through to find the best value, and look at whether Paraguay (+400) or Australia (+800) can outperform expectations.

📅 World Cup 2026: Group D schedule

The schedule for Group D has a bit of travel north to south, but the four teams all benefit from spending their time in the Pacific time zone. 

• June 12 -> United States vs. Paraguay (SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, Calif.)
• June 13 -> Australia vs. Turkey (BC Place, Vancouver)

• June 19 -> United States vs. Australia (Lumen Field, Seattle)
• June 19 -> Turkey vs. Paraguay (Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara, Calif.)

• June 25 -> Turkey vs. United State (SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, Calif.)
• June 25 -> Paraguay vs. Australia (Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara, Calif.)

⚽ World Cup 2026: Group D best bets

Australia to finish third in Group D (+225) 

This is a tough group, with not a lot separating the teams. Each of the four has some serious flaws, and some facets of the game they're great at. I'm of the believe that Turkey or the States will come out on top, so that's leaves Paraguay and Australia battling for third. 

Australia profiles as a team that will play for a draw. The team plays with a rigid defensive structure, playing a 3-4-3 but often dropping two to create a back five, which makes them very hard to break down. They play a technical game in the box and will likely come out of the tournament with one of the lowest xGAs in the tournament.

Souttar, Circati, and Burgess comprise one of the more settled parts of the club, and they're highly efficient in front of goal. Australia's last five opponents (Mexico, Saudi Arabia, Jalpan, China and Indonesia) have combined for just three goals.

However, a lack of clinical finishing up front will make it hard to pick up all three points against Turkiye and the United States, and Paraguay plays a staunch defensive game as well. It would not be shocking to see Australia pick up two, if not three, draws in this group. That's why we're going to target the "to finish third" market instead of rolling the dice on the longer odds on the "to qualify from third."

❓ World Cup 2026: Group D FAQs

Which teams are in Group D? 

Co-host USA is joined by Turkey, Australia, and Paraguay in Group D.

Who is the favorite to win Group D?

The USA is a +140 betting favorite to win Group D.

When does Group D play?

Group D opens their tournament play on June 12 and 13, with their second games on June 19, and their final games on June 25.