World Cup Golden Boot Odds & Predictions: Messi & Mbappe Tied Heading to Final

We've been treated to an absolute show in World Cup 2026, so it's only fitting that we're witnessing one of the best Golden Boot races of all time with two players tied ahead of the final weekend.

For the first time in World Cup history, three different players - Kylian Mbappe (France), Lionel Messi (Argentina), and Erling Haaland (Norway) - scored seven goals in the same tournament.  But only Messi and Mbappe netted an eighth, and we're looking at the latest World Cup Golden Boot odds with Messi still to play in the final and Mbappe in the third-place game.

Below, I break down the latest odds across prediction market apps with a closer look at each of the four favorites and my best pick in this market.

📊 World Cup Golden Boot odds: Who will score most goals?

Prediction market via Kalshi. You can use our Kalshi promo code for a $10 bonus by signing up today. Market subject to change.

With the final weekend ahead, Messi is the favorite to win the Golden Boot as the top goal-scorer. The Argentinian has the upper hand on Mbappe, whose French side only has the third-place game left, which may see unusual minutes posted.

But it's a tough spot for Messi, facing a Spanish side that has allowed just one goal across all seven games of the tournament. 

Here's a look at the latest goal-scorer standings as of Thursday, July 16, following the semifinals.

Most goals in World Cup 2026

*Eliminated

🏆 Who is the favorite to win the Golden Boot?

Lionel Messi is the favorite to win the Golden Boot, priced at just under 60% at Kalshi to take home the award.

🇦🇷 Lionel Messi, Argentina (8)

Messi had been the best pure goal-scorer in this tournament - and with four assists heading into the final weekend, he's the frontrunner to win the award in the event both he and Mbappe stay off the scoresheet.

Messi hasn't even started all of Argentina's matches, either, coming off the bench against Jordan for the final 30 minutes as part of a ten-match World Cup streak with at least one goal. That run ended in the quarterfinals.

But that run ending has turned into two games without a goal (although the three assists, bringing his total to four, could be the difference-maker)

Argentina looked like a championship squad this tournament after winning the World Cup 2022, and Messi should be at the center of it all in what could be his final chance to win the Golden Boot.

Lionel Messi World Cup stats (match log)

🇫🇷 Kylian Mbappe, France (8)

Mbappe took home this award at the 2022 World Cup, when he scored eight goals to lead the scoring in Qatar despite losing to Messi's Argentina in the final. While no player has ever repeated as an award winner, he still has a chance to claim the award. Mbappe would need to produce in the third-place game, and Messi would need to be held goalless in the final, for that to play out. 

He entered this tournament as the second choice after an injury-riddled club season, but the French phenom put those concerns to rest early with a pair of goals in the group stage opener against Senegal and two more in his next match against Iraq. He followed that with two assists against Norway.

Mbappe scored four goals across three knockout phase games, but his inability to get on the board in the semifinals against Spain was part of France's tournament run ending. 

Kylian Mbappe World Cup stats (match log)

🔮 Golden Boot prediction: Who will score most goals in World Cup 2026?

I'll put it simply: I think Lionel Messi will win the Golden Boot. If nothing changes this weekend, Messi takes home the award. The Argentine star has been the most efficient goal-scorer in this tournament

Mbappe has been at the center of the most terrifying attack in the World Cup, but it looks like his chances of becoming the first back-to-back Golden Boot winner have faded. It remains to be seen how much starters play (if at all) in the third-place game, as players will be looking to stay fresh ahead of their upcoming domestic seasons.

❓ World Cup Golden Boot FAQs

Follow all of our soccer picks for the rest of World Cup 2026.

Who won the last World Cup Golden Boot?

France's Kylian Mbappe scored eight goals to win the World Cup Golden Boot in 2022, beating out Argentina's Lionel Messi (seven goals) with a hat trick in the final.

Has anyone ever won the World Cup Golden Boot twice?

No player has ever won the World Cup Golden Boot more than once since the award was formalized in 1982. Both Kylian Mbappe (2022) and Harry Kane (2018) could make history if they win the award this year.

What is the record for most goals in a single World Cup?

France's Just Fontaine scored 13 goals at World Cup 1958 to set the single-tournament record. Only three players have ever hit double figures in one World Cup: Fontaine, Hungary's Sandor Kocsis (11 in 1954), and Germany's Gerd Müller (10 in 1970).

How is the World Cup Golden Boot tiebreaker decided?

If two or more players finish with the same number of goals, the first tiebreaker is most assists, and the second is fewest minutes played. Right now Mbappe leads Messi and Haaland with two assists, so a three-way tie on goals would go to Mbappe.

⚖️ What is Kalshi and how does it work?

Kalshi is a U.S.-regulated prediction market exchange, overseen by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, where you trade on the outcome of real-world events by buying and selling simple contracts that pay out $1 if a specific result happens and $0 if it does not. Think of it like betting with a stock-market-style order book instead of a sportsbook.

For example, if you select Mbappe to win the World Cup  Golden Boot at 50 cents, you would be buying a “Yes” contract at 50 cents, which implies a 50% chance. If he wins the award, that contract settles at $1, meaning you make 50 cents per contract. If he loses, it settles at $0.

Prices move based on supply and demand as traders buy and sell, so the market itself reflects the crowd’s collective probability. Unlike traditional betting, you can sell your position early to lock in profit or cut losses, and the focus is on forecasting outcomes rather than beating a fixed house line.

How does Kalshi differ from sportsbooks?

Kalshi differs from sportsbooks because you are trading against other users in an open market, not betting against a house that sets and moves the line.

Prices are driven by supply and demand, you can exit positions early by selling, and odds are expressed as probabilities in cents rather than traditional spreads or moneylines. Sportsbooks, by contrast, offer fixed wagers with built-in vig and no ability to trade once the bet is placed.

Why should I wager on the Golden Boot winner at Kalshi?

Kalshi offers four unique advantages over traditional sportsbooks:

• Flexibility: Unlike a "locked-in" bet, you can sell your contract at any time.
• Transparency: You trade against other users, which can allow you to find better value.
• Federal regulation: As a CFTC-regulated exchange, your funds are held in a secure, transparent environment.
• Availability: Kalshi is available in many regions where traditional sportsbooks aren't yet legal.