⚽ World Cup Golden Boot Odds & Predictions: Who Will Score the Most Goals?

Harry Kane scored the most goals at the World Cup in 2018, and Kylian Mbappe followed suit in 2022. So who will score the most goals in the World Cup in 2026?

Ahead of the tournament opener on Thursday, I'm breaking down the latest Golden Boot odds and predictions for the top goal-scorer this summer. The aforementioned deadly duo of Mbappe and Kane lead the top prediction market apps entering the tournament - will the Englishman or Frenchman win their second Golden Boot, or is another prolific attacker destined for glory?

📈 Golden Boot winner odds: Who will score most goals in World Cup?

Prediction market via Kalshi. You can use our Kalshi promo code for a $10 bonus by signing up today. Market subject to change.

Mbappe is the favorite to finish World Cup 2026 with the most goals, according to his 16% win probability at Kalshi. The Frenchman's probability shot up after the market opened in December 2025, almost immediately soaring to 49%.

Why has Kylian Mbappe's Golden Boot probability decreased?

• Mbappe suffered separate knee injuries this season, and a recent hamstring injury sidelined him near the end of league play.
• Those injuries may have cooled the public's desire to back him.
• Kane has been the best striker this season, and he has likely taken some of the trading that would have otherwise gone to Mbappe.

Mbappe's Yes price of 16 cents means a $100 investment would yield a $525 profit on a winning contract (if he scores the most goals) with American odds of +525, according to our odds calculator.

Will Harry Kane overtake Mbappe as Golden Boot favorite?

Kane is the second-most likely to win the Golden Boot with a probability of 13%. Kane's yes price of 13 cents would translate to a profit of roughly $670 on a $100 winning investment, as his American odds stand at +669.

Kane spearheads one of the most formidable attacks, which is one of the main reasons I backed England to win the World Cup in my early World Cup predictions. He has every chance to steal Mbappe's spot as the Golden Boot favorite with a hot start to the tournament.

Norway's Erling Haaland is the third-most likely player to win the Golden Boot with a 7% probability. The terrifying Norwegian is trading at the same price as Spain's Mikel Oyarzabal, who enters the tournament as one of the hottest strikers in the sport. Those two are priced just ahead of World Cup legends Cristiano Ronaldo and Lionel Messi, who both sit at 5%.

📊 World Cup Golden Boot odds 2026

Here are the World Cup Golden Boot odds from Kalshi's prediction market.

⚽ My Golden Boot prediction for World Cup 2026

I'm backing Kane to secure his second Golden Boot. The 32-year-old is the most prolific striker this season and won the Golden Boot at World Cup 2018.

He has eight goals in 11 World Cup matches, and he captains the team with the second-shortest World Cup odds at prediction markets, which should mean he'll play as many games, if not more, than most of the other contenders.

Kane's 2025-26 goal tally vs. other Golden Boot favorites

💰 Golden Boot favorites: Who else is worth backing in World Cup 2026?

Exploring the chances of the other favorites to win the Golden Boot, I weigh in on my confidence level for each one on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale.

Kylian Mbappe ⭐⭐⭐⭐

If Kane doesn't win the Golden Boot, Mbappe probably will. The formidable Frenchman won the Golden Boot at World Cup 2022, scoring eight goals, one ahead of Lionel Messi.

As is France's way, it should advance deep into the tournament, providing the 27-year-old ample opportunity to bulge the old onion bag.

Erling Haaland ⭐⭐⭐

Haaland is a goal-scoring machine, and there's no arguing how lethal he is when he gets a sniff of the goal. He scored 55 goals in 48 matches for Norway, including an absurd return of 21 in 14 World Cup qualifiers.

However, the 2026 World Cup is Norway's first since 1998. While I backed Norway as my best World Cup long shot, they call it a long shot for a reason. I can't see them advancing past the quarterfinals, which probably won't be enough games. I say probably because of his unparalleled ability to score in bunches.

⚖️ What is Kalshi and how does it work?

Kalshi is a U.S.-regulated prediction market exchange, overseen by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, where you trade on the outcome of real-world events by buying and selling simple contracts that pay out $1 if a specific result happens and $0 if it does not. Think of it like betting with a stock-market-style order book instead of a sportsbook.

For example, if you select Mbappe to win the World Cup, it would, at current prices, be a “Yes” contract at 16 cents, which implies a 16% chance. If they win the competition, that contract settles at $1, meaning you make 84 cents per contract. If he loses, it settles at $0.

Prices move based on supply and demand as traders buy and sell, so the market itself reflects the crowd’s collective probability. Unlike traditional betting, you can sell your position early to lock in profit or cut losses, and the focus is on forecasting outcomes rather than beating a fixed house line.

How does Kalshi differ from sportsbooks?

Kalshi differs from sportsbooks because you are trading against other users in an open market, not betting against a house that sets and moves the line.

Prices are driven by supply and demand, you can exit positions early by selling, and odds are expressed as probabilities in cents rather than traditional spreads or moneylines. Sportsbooks, by contrast, offer fixed wagers with built-in vig and no ability to trade once the bet is placed.

Why should I wager on the Golden Boot winner at Kalshi?

Kalshi offers four unique advantages over traditional sportsbooks:

• Flexibility: Unlike a "locked-in" bet, you can sell your contract at any time.
• Transparency: You trade against other users, which can allow you to find better value.
• Federal regulation: As a CFTC-regulated exchange, your funds are held in a secure, transparent environment.
• Availability: Kalshi is available in many regions where traditional sportsbooks aren't yet legal.