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Top Premier League Matchday 38 Picks: Title, Relegation Battles Set To Go Down to the Wire

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Top Premier League Matchday 38 Picks: Title, Relegation Battles Set To Go Down to the Wire
Manchester City striker Gabriel Jesus celebrates after scoring against Real Madrid in the Champions League. Photo by Paul Ellis via AFP.

It all comes down to this. The Premier League enters its final matchweek with both the title and final relegation spot still hanging in the balance. Check out our Premier League Matchday 38 picks.

Just one point separates first-place Manchester City and second-place Liverpool. The reigning champions are coming off a draw in their last match away to West Ham on May 15 and take on Aston Villa at home in their final game of the campaign. Meanwhile, Liverpool survived an early scare at Southampton on May 17 and finish their Premier League season at Anfield against Wolves.

City simply need a victory (or a Liverpool loss) to reclaim the title, but can Villa manager — and Liverpool icon — Steven Gerrard help his boyhood club in its pursuit to win the league for the second time in three years?

Meanwhile, Everton escaped the threat of relegation with their thrilling midweek comeback win over Crystal Palace, leaving only Burnley and Leeds in the battle for 17th. The former can guarantee its spot in England’s top flight by grabbing three points at home against Newcastle, while the latter travels to Brentford with only one thing on its mind: win.

Whatever you have planned for this weekend, make sure it’s done before 11 a.m. ET on Sunday, because you’ll want to be free when all 20 teams are in action on the final day of the Premier League season.

Here are my top Premier League Matchday 38 picks and predictions (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook and FanDuel Sportsbook; pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Premier League Matchday 38 Picks

  • Tottenham Hotspur to win + Son Heung-min to score two or more goals (+436 via FanDuel) ★★★
  • Manchester City to win + Gabriel Jesus to score (+139 via FanDuel) ★★★★
  • Arsenal -1 (+110 via FanDuel) ★★★★
  • Burnley or draw + Under 2.5 (+145 via DraftKings) ★★★
  • Brentford to win (+140 via DraftKings) ★★★

SEE ALSO: Top Serie A Matchday 38 Picks

Premier League Matchday 38 Predictions

Spurs + Son Over 1.5 goals (+436)

Spurs (3-2-0 last five): 8-4-6 away record (1.56 points per game), 26 away goals (25.8 expected goals) to 21 away goals against (19.9 expected goals against)
Norwich (0-1-4 last five): 3-3-12 home record (0.67 points per game), 12 home goals (16.6 xG) to 38 home goals against (32.5 xGA)

The first part of this bet is fairly straightforward. Spurs can secure fourth place in the Premier League and a spot in next year’s Champions League with a draw at Norwich. However, though they need only a single point, they’ll take all three. Tottenham won’t give fifth-place Arsenal any hope of catching them and will put away Norwich early, just as they did in the reverse fixture that finished 3-0 for Spurs.

Meanwhile, Son is just one goal behind Liverpool’s Mohamed Salah for the Premier League’s Golden Boot award. With Salah potentially sitting out his club’s final league game with the injury he picked up in the FA Cup final (Liverpool still have to play in the Champions League final on May 28), Son can finish the campaign as the league’s top goal-scorer with a brace at Norwich. Look for Spurs teammate Harry Kane to once again serve as the facilitator and even likely allow Son to take penalties should Tottenham draw any.

Manchester City + Jesus goal (+139)

Aston Villa (2-2-1 last five): 7-1-10 away record (1.22 points per game), 21 away goals (19.7 xG) to 22 away goals against (21.5 xGA)
Manchester City (4-1-0 last five): 14-2-2 home record (2.44 points per game), 55 home goals (41.9 xG) to 13 home goals against (12 xGA)

Liverpool supporters will follow this game nervously on Sunday, hoping Gerrard can do as a manager what he couldn’t as a player and help deliver the Reds a Premier League title.

Unfortunately, it won’t happen. City are simply too good, evidenced by their 2-1 victory in the reverse fixture at Villa Park and their overall home dominance this season. They’ll emerge from the Etihad with the necessary three points and finish as Premier League champions for the second straight season and fourth time in five years.

For his part, Jesus loves himself a goal on the season’s final day. He’s scored on Matchday 38 in three of the last four seasons, failing to only in 2019 because he didn’t play in the game (he instead scored twice in City’s FA Cup victory six days later). The Brazilian should start up top for Pep Guardiola’s squad and add to his Matchday 38 resume.

Check out our top-rated sportsbooks here

Arsenal -1 (+110)

Everton (3-1-1 last five): 2-4-12 away record (0.56 points per game), 15 away goals (17.9 xG) to 36 away goals against (28.2 xGA)
Arsenal (3-0-2 last five): 12-2-4 home record (2.11 points per game), 30 home goals (32.7 xG) to 16 home goals against (16.6 xGA)

This one is fairly simple for two reasons. First, for all of their faults (which will certainly cost them fourth place), Arsenal have been dominant at home. Their 2.11 points per game at the Emirates are tied for the third-best mark in the Premier League, and their plus-16.2 expected goal differential at home is fourth best. Meanwhile, Everton are a shambles outside of Goodison, better than only Norwich away from home.

The second important aspect is what’s at stake for both clubs. Everton survived relegation with their midweek win, making this game essentially meaningless — even more so since it’s not in front of their supporters. On the other hand, Arsenal need to win. Spurs hold all the cards, but the Gunners will still do whatever they can to put pressure on their North London rivals and give their fans something to cheer for after an up-and-down campaign.

Burnley or draw + Under 2.5 (+145)

Newcastle (3-0-2 last five): 4-4-10 away record (0.89 points per game), 16 away goals (16.3 xG) to 34 away goals against (27.1 xGA)
Burnley (2-1-2 last five): 5-6-7 home record (1.17 points per game), 17 home goals (19.7 xG) to 23 home goals against (24.7 xGA)

Down at the other end of the table, Burnley control their own destiny. A win at home against Newcastle ensures safety in the Premier League and sends Leeds back down to the Championship. However, the Clarets don’t need to win, and they’ll play a much tighter brand of football to begin this match as a result. Burnley will surely keep a close eye on the Leeds-Brentford score and adjust accordingly throughout their own game.

Newcastle are coming off a massive win of their own against Arsenal, but they’ve been significantly weaker away from home and don’t have anything to play for in this match.

Burnley will make sure they don’t concede early, and that defensive effort should keep this a low-scoring affair. Seven of Burnley’s last 10 games went Under this total, while six of Newcastle’s last 10 went Under.

Brentford (+140)

Leeds (0-2-3 last five): 4-5-9 away record (0.94 points per game), 21 away goals (19.6 xG) to 40 away goals against (36 xGA)
Brentford (3-1-1 last five): 7-3-8 home record (1.33 points per game), 21 home goals (25.4 xG) to 19 home goals against (18.6 xGA)

In the battle for 17th, Leeds drew the short straw. Burnley are lucky enough to host their final match in front of their home crowd, while Leeds travel to Brentford Community Stadium. Though Brentford have nothing to play for like Newcastle, they’ll be more compelled to put on a strong performance in their last home game of their first-ever Premier League season.

This match will serve as somewhat of a passing of the torch, as it was Leeds who last season were the impressive newly promoted side. Brentford hold that honor this year, and they will conclude their thrilling return to England’s top flight by sending Leeds back down to the Championship.

Premier League Matchday 38 Parlay Picks

We’re combining four heavy favorites with the two matches featuring relegation consequences to form a tidy six-game parlay.

Combined odds: Manchester City (-600) + Liverpool (-650) + Spurs (-400) + Arsenal (-285) + Burnley (+125) + Brentford (+140) = +1127 (via DraftKings)

Where to Bet on Premier League Picks

Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:

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Premier League Matchday 38 picks made 5/20/2022 at 12:30 p.m. ET.