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Top Premier League Matchday 28 Betting Picks: Foxes Go On The Hunt At King Power

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Top Premier League Matchday 28 Betting Picks: Foxes Go On The Hunt At King Power
Look for Leicester forward Jamie Vardy to punish Leeds in his second game back from injury. Photo by Manjit Narotra/ProSportsImages/DPPI via AFP.

There was only one midweek Premier League matchup, with the FA Cup taking center stage heading into Matchday 28. The weekend features some massive games, including one of football’s biggest spectacles. We’ll take a look at the action with our Premier League Matchday 28 picks.

A titanic Manchester derby highlights Matchday 28, with City six points clear of Liverpool atop the Premier League table following a controversial win at Everton. City’s opponents, Manchester United, are coming off a cataclysmic draw at home to Watford, and we’re targeting a handful of teams that are nipping at the Red Devils’ heels for the fourth Champions League spot.

England’s second-hottest club looks to continue its rise from the ashes when it hosts a plummeting overachiever, a middling league champion tries to correct its inconsistent spell against a side in a freefall, and two midtable teams battle for supremacy on one of the Premier League’s oldest grounds.

Here are my top betting picks and predictions for the Premier League Matchday 28 schedule (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook and FanDuel Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Premier League Matchday 28 Picks

  • Newcastle (+180 via DraftKings) ★★★★★
  • Leicester to win and Over 2.5 (+138 via FanDuel) ★★★★★
  • Aston Villa to win and Over 1.5 (+180 via FanDuel) ★★★★

SEE ALSO: Top Serie A Matchday 28 Betting Picks

Premier League Matchday 28 Predictions

Newcastle (+180)

Newcastle are flying right now. They’ve taken 13 points from their last five games, a tally bested only by Liverpool’s 15. The Magpies conceded just two goals in those matches – which coincide with the club’s massive spending spree during the January transfer window – on an equally minuscule three expected goals against.

Prior to their away showdowns with Brentford and West Ham (which resulted in a win and draw, respectively), Newcastle hosted Everton and Aston Villa. They battered Frank Lampard’s men 3-1 before completely shutting down Steven Gerrard’s squad in a 1-0 victory. Now, Newcastle head back home to St. James’ Park to host a crumbling Brighton side.

Brighton have been one of the Premier League’s most defensively stout clubs throughout the campaign, but their lack of scoring has finally caught up to them. The Seagulls have scored a grand total of zero goals in their last three affairs, last finding the back of the net on Feb. 12 away to the league’s most pathetic home side, Watford. Since that 2-0 win at Vicarage Road, Manchester United, Burnley, and Aston Villa shut out Brighton. They mustered just 1.8 xG during that spell.

The Seagulls will annoy Newcastle on Saturday – as they tend to do – but won’t pose any real threat. The home side is simply too good right now to drop points here.

Those more bullish on the Magpies can get Newcastle -1.5 at +550 at DraftKings, but I prefer to squeeze some extra juice out of the total with a Newcastle win and Under 3.5 at +225 with FanDuel.

Leicester and Over 2.5 (+138)

Following an inspired ninth-place showing last year in their first season back in the Premier League since 2004, Leeds are absolutely capitulating. They’ve conceded a mind-boggling 20 goals in their last five matches, from which they took just a single point. Marcelo Bielsa is out, and former Major League Soccer manager Jesse Marsch won’t be able to stop the bleeding when his squad travels to King Power Stadium to take on an always dangerous Leicester side.

The Foxes have suffered a mostly up-and-down season, with injuries to Jamie Vardy and various defenders causing instability throughout the campaign. However, Vardy returned following an extended absence to bury Burnley last week. He came off the bench to assist on the winner and add a second goal in the 90th minute of the 2-0 win. Leicester’s issue has never been an inability to score; they’ve ranked in the top half of the Premier League in expected goals each of the last five seasons.

Meanwhile, Leeds are truly an abomination at the back. Their hideous 51.2 xGA – worst in the league – is matched only by their equally pitiful 60 goals against, which are also the most in the league. For their part, Leicester also own one of the leakiest defenses at home, with 21.0 xGA being the fourth-most in the league.

Leicester will commemorate Marsch’s first match as a Premier League manager with a goal barrage for the ages. Considering the Foxes’ penchant for conceding at home, you could stretch this to Leicester and Over 3.5 at +285 with FanDuel.

Check out our top-rated sportsbooks here

Aston Villa and Over 1.5 (+180)

This would be a very different match if it was being played at St. Mary’s, where Southampton haven’t lost since September. However, this one is at Villa Park, and the Saints aren’t at their best when they go marching into enemy territory. They’ve conceded 27 away goals on 23.0 xGA, both are the third-most in the league. Though they’ve managed to still steal some points away from home, Southampton will leave Villa Park empty-handed.

Aston Villa have been wildly inconsistent since Gerrard became manager, taking just 11 points from their last 10 Premier League matches. However, they’ve shown enough in their home games to warrant the confidence here. Villa stormed back for a magical 2-2 draw against Manchester United before drawing 3-3 with Leeds and suffering an unlucky 1-0 loss to Watford. They managed 5.1 xG in those three home affairs for an expected goal differential of 1.1.

For their part, Southampton have managed to take eight points from their last five away Premier League matches despite a minus-1.8 xGD across those affairs.

Regression is coming for both of these clubs. However, in Villa’s case, it’s positive.

Premier League Matchday 28 Quick Picks

Premier League Matchday 28 Parlay Picks

Much like a Kepa Arrizabalaga penalty, we're aiming for the moon with a seven-game parlay featuring our six winners and the hottest team in England.

Combined odds: Leicester (-130) + Aston Villa (+135) + Wolves (+135) + Newcastle (+180) + Liverpool (-330) + Arsenal (-175) + Spurs (-160) = +9002

Where to Bet on Premier League Picks

Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:

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Premier League Matchday 28 picks made 3/4/2022 at 12:00 a.m. ET.