Top Serie A Matchday 28 Betting Picks: Napoli-Milan the Main Attraction

Nick Bondi

Last Updated: March 2, 2022 10:11 AM EST • 3 min 21 sec read. Twitter link Google News Link

SSC Napoli's Senegalese defender Kalidou Koulibaly looks during the Serie A football match between SS Lazio and SSC Napoli at the Olympic Stadium in Rome, central Italy, on February 27, 2022. (Photo by Antonio Balasco / Controluce via AFP)

The Serie A season continues its march to crown a new champion. Read on for our Serie A Matchday 28 picks.

The hottest title race amongst Europe's major leagues took another interesting turn on Matchday 27. While AC Milan and Inter Milan dropped points, Napoli won against Lazio 2-1 thanks to a 94th-minute winner from Fabian Ruiz. As a result, the Neapolitans sit atop the league table, tied with Milan for 57 points. With both teams scheduled to play each other on Sunday, it will be the most important single game in a title race since Napoli and Juventus played on April 22, 2018.

For this week's Serie A picks, we'll look into that massive top-of-the-table clash, a game with implications on the relegation battle, and a match that will feature plenty of goals.

Here are my top betting picks and predictions for the Serie A Matchday 28 schedule (odds via DraftKings SportsBook, BetMGM, and Barstool Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Top Serie A Matchday 28 Picks

Napoli-Milanboth teams to score(-130 via BetMGM)????Udinese-Sampdoria draw (+265 via DraftKings)???Asian total:Venezia-Sassuolo Over 3 goals (+110 via DraftKings)?????

Serie A Matchday 28 Betting Picks

Napoli-Milan both teams to score (-130)

The stakes couldn't be higher for this one.

For Napoli, this could be the last chance for the current core to win the Scudetto. Lorenzo Insigne will be leaving for Toronto FC in the MLS after the end of the season, Dries Mertens is a shell of his former self, and Kalidou Koulibaly is 30 and has been linked to clubs like Barcelona and Manchester United recently. For Milan, this is the closest they've been this late in a title race since they last won in 2011.

The last game between these two was a tense, 1-0 win for Napoli at the San Siro. Eljif Elmas scored in the fourth minute off a corner and Napoli essentially sat back for the rest of the game. With Napoli owning the best defensive record by goals and expected goals against, there's no one better in the league in pulling that off.

It's tempting to say that both teams will not want to cede anything to each other. However, circumstances this time will likely force both to go for it. Inter are playing Salernitana on Friday and will (most likely) pick up the three points, sending them top of the table. With more points than both teams and a game in hand, it could force both teams to be a bit more adventurous than they would be otherwise. Milan have scored in all but two of their matches this season, and Napoli all but three. Both sit in the top six for goals and xGF, and have the firepower to score if they choose to.

If Napoli scores first, it will be worth looking into a live play on the Under as well. Napoli have shown time and time again this season that they can sit on a lead comfortably.

Udinese-Sampdoria draw (+265)

One of my favorite bets to make during the stretch run of the Serie A season is to bet on the conservative, self-preserving nature of teams near the relegation zone.

Udinese are currently 14th in Serie A, but just four points from a relegation spot. Sampdoria are 15th, level on points with Udinese. A win would be massive for both teams. But a loss would squarely put them in a relegation dog fight, especially if teams like Genoa and Salernitana continue their good run of form.

Both Udinese and Sampdoria have not been at their best of late. Sampdoria have won just two of their past 10 Serie A matches, and both of Udinese's wins in their past 10 have come when their opponents were down to 10 men. They cannot afford to drop any more points.

Udinese have drawn 11 games this season, the second-most in Serie A. Both teams are in the bottom half in shots on target per game, and the bottom third for expected goals. In a game where it might be tough to score, to begin with, I'll back both teams settling to help each other out with a splitting of the points.

Venezia-Sassuolo Over 3 goals (+110)

We're once again targeting a Sassuolo away game for our weekly Serie A Over.

Sassuolo have scored the fourth most goals away from home this season, and fifth by xGF. It's a marked split from their home record, where they rank just 12th in goals and 11th in xGF. Nine of their last 11 away games have exceeded or reached this total, and both teams have scored in the exact same amount. As for Venezia, they have given up the fourth-most goals and xGA at home this season and are just three points from safety.

The last time these two teams met was on Oct. 23. Sassuolo won 3-1, generating 2.13 xGF and conceding a goal on just 0.53 xGF. Getting the Asian total at +110 represents a marked improvement in value, as the same game parlay with both teams to score and Over 2.5 goals on DraftKings is offered at just -130.

Serie A Matchday 28 Quick Picks

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Written By:
Nick Bondi

Publishing Editor for Sportsbook Review. Long-suffering Canucks fan. Formerly of SB Nation and the Locked On Network. In my spare time, you can find me betting on any sport with a ball or a puck.