Newcastle vs. Aston Villa Prediction, Picks & Odds for Saturday's Premier League Match
Two struggling teams meet at St James’ Park on Saturday (12:30 p.m. ET, Peacock) as I offer my Newcastle vs. Aston Villa prediction.
Newcastle are the +120 home betting favorite. However, Aston Villa have played fairly well on the road, losing only once in three matches. I take a look at which team to back, along with a bet on the total and a player prop featuring John McGinn.
Newcastle vs. Aston Villa predictions & best bets
See our experts' soccer picks.
| Best bets | Best odds | Wager (units) |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline draw | +270 via BetMGM | 1 unit to profit 2.7 units |
| Under 2.5 goals | +138 via FanDuel | 0.5 units to profit 0.69 units |
| John McGinn goal or assist | +195 via FanDuel | 0.5 units to profit 0.98 units |
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Newcastle vs. Aston Villa best bet
Check out all of our soccer betting analysis and expert predictions this season.
Draw (+270 via BetMGM)
I believe these teams, separated by three points, are incredibly evenly matched. Despite enjoying a better start to the season, Newcastle has tied two of its three matches at St. James’ Park.
The Magpies enter the match with just one win in their last four Premier League matches, a 2-1 triumph over newly promoted Hull at home. Meanwhile, Aston Villa have been much better on their travels, with a win, a loss, and a draw.
The Villains have tied two of six league matches, and both teams will be desperate not to lose. One of their previous two meetings ended deadlocked.
🆚 Who will win Newcastle vs. Aston Villa?
I’m backing a 1-1 draw at St James’ Park. Both teams are desperate for points, and Aston Villa are playing much better on the road at the moment. Newcastle have struggled to secure all three points at home, winning one of three.
Score prediction: Newcastle 1, Aston Villa 1
More Newcastle vs. Aston Villa expert picks
Newcastle have 7.2 expected goals and Aston Villa 6.9. Those are the fifth- and fourth-lowest totals, respectively. While both are among the five teams that have conceded the most expected goals against, I believe defense will be on top in this critical match.
Neither team has a player with more than two goals, and Aston Villa were shut out in two of their three away matches. The only time Newcastle scored more than one goal in their previous four came against Hull City in a 2-1 win.
John McGinn goal or assist (+195 via FanDuel)
I love this bet for various reasons. First, McGinn is in form, scoring or assisting in three straight Premier League matches. He also scored in one of two Champions League matches, bagging a goal on Matchday 1 against Club Brugge in Belgium.
He’s also almost guaranteed to play the full 90 minutes, such is his unparalleled importance to the team. I also like the +195 odds, which implies a 33.9% probability. Based on recent performances, I’d place the probability of a goal contribution around 40%.
Newcastle vs. Aston Villa key stats
All stats below are for the Premier League season unless otherwise noted.
| Statistic | Newcastle | Aston Villa |
|---|---|---|
| Record (domestic) | 2-2-2 | 1-2-3 |
| Recent form (all comps) | LWLWD | WDWWW |
| Goals for (Premier League) | 10 | 6 |
| xG (domestic) | 7.2 | 6.9 |
| Goals against (domestic) | 13 | 11 |
| xGA (domestic) | 10.5 | 10.3 |
| Average possession (domestic) | 52.1% | 46.9% |
Live Newcastle vs. Aston Villa odds
Newcastle vs. Aston Villa projected lineups
Here are the projected lineups for Newcastle vs. Aston Villa; subject to change:
| Newcastle (4-2-3-1) | Aston Villa (4-2-3-1) |
|---|---|
| Hornicek (GK) | Suzuki (GK) |
| Dedic (D) | Cash (D) |
| Thiaw (D) | Lindelof (D) |
| Botman (D) | Torres (D) |
| Hall (D) | Wan-Bissaka (D) |
| Joelinton (M) | Kamara (M) |
| Gonzalez (M) | Gomes (M) |
| Willock (M) | McGinn (M) |
| Murphy (M) | Buendia (M) |
| Osula (M) | Manzambi (M) |
| Barnes (F) | Jackson (F) |
How to watch Newcastle vs. Aston Villa
- Date: Saturday, Oct. 17
- Kickoff: 12:30 p.m. ET
- Location: St James’ Park (Newcastle)
- TV/Streaming: Peacock
