NFL Best Bets for Week 6: ATS Picks & Player Props This Week

My NFL best bets for Week 6 aim to build on last week's unblemished record in game predictions (ATS and O/U wagers) and balance it with more success on player props.

This week’s NFL picks still involve at least one ATS and O/U play, but I mix in more player props where I target the leaky Saints run defense and Cowboys pass defense. Lastly, the Week 5 Monday Night Football matchup between the Bills and Rams should give Kirk Cousins a blueprint for a big passing day.

NFL best bets for Week 6

See the latest NFL odds and our experts' NFL picks for every game this season.

Best NFL predictions: ATS, ML, O/U

Want more NFL betting advice? Check out all of our NFL analysis and expert predictions for every game in Week 6.

Steelers-Buccaneers Under 39.5 (-105 via DraftKings)

Aaron Rodgers has turned back the clock to 2021, when he last threw three touchdown passes in three straight games before this current three-game streak. He is just the second player in franchise history to accomplish that feat.

However, I am selling high on Rodgers given how limited Pittsburgh is at wide receiver. Michael Pittman Jr. is on IR, and Ben Skowronek and Roman Wilson have been ruled out. That does not bode well for a high-scoring affair against a Todd Bowles-coached team that has allowed the fourth-lowest percentage of scoring plays to come via touchdown (42.9%). Similarly, Tampa Bay’s offense ranks 28th in points per drive (1.69).

Bears -1.5 (-102 via DraftKings)

Chicago could be trending toward a massive edge at quarterback in this game, so I’m backing the Bears at -1.5 before the line potentially balloons. Not only did Caleb Williams participate in walkthroughs in a mid-week practice, but Michael Penix Jr.’s status is in question after leaving last week’s game with a rib injury.

When Williams starts this season, the Bears average 31.0 points and 425 yards, convert 52% of their third downs, and have an 80.7 Total QBR (would rank second among qualifiers). But when the combination of Tyson Bagent and Case Keenum start, Chicago averages 19.0 points and 371 yards, converts 38% of their third downs, and records a 59.5 Total QBR.

Best NFL player props for Week 6

Cam Skattebo anytime touchdown scorer (-105 via DraftKings)

Cam Skattebo has been hit at or behind the line of scrimmage on 51.9% of his rushes. But a matchup against New Orleans’ 31st-ranked run defense should help New York’s ground game get going.

Skattebo has played 65% of the snaps and accounted for more than 35% of the Giants’ touches. He has at least 15 touches in every game, ranks 10th in carries, and has three or more targets in three of the last four games. 

The Saints allow the most rushing yards per game (133) and the most rushing touchdowns to running backs, so this is great value for Skattebo to find the end zone.

Kirk Cousins Over 35.5 pass attempts (-115 via bet365)

If the Raiders watched any of the Bills-Rams MNF matchup last week, they’d know that the smartest game plan is to throw often against the Buffalo defense.

On downfield throws (10+ air yards), the Bills have allowed the fifth-most passing yards, the fourth-most passing touchdowns, the fourth-most explosive plays, and the second-most first downs.

Kirk Cousins’ 1,383 air yards rank him among the top 10 quarterbacks with at least 100 dropbacks. He has multiple touchdown passes in four of five games and should throw often, considering the Raiders' rushing attack ranks 28th or worse in rushing yards per game (82.0), yards per rush (3.0), and yards before contact per rush (1.2).

Jordan Love longest pass completion Over 40.5 yards (-114 via DraftKings)

Jordan Love threw for 367 yards last week, the most by a Packers quarterback at home against the Bears in franchise history. He had the deep ball going, with six completions of 20+ yards downfield, his most in a game in his career.

Love joined Ben Roethlisberger as the only quarterbacks in the last 20 seasons with five completions of 30 or more air yards in a game (he was 5-for-6 with two passing touchdowns on such throws). I expect Love to keep challenging a Cowboys secondary vertically, as they allow the league’s highest passer rating on deep throws. Dallas’ defense also ranks in the bottom three in pressure percentage and sacks, so Love should have plenty of time to throw downfield.